Post
Pickle Cat
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Some macro hidden risks I'm closely watching for 2026:
- Political uncertainty related to the midterm election cycle
- Valuation and sentiment risks in AI and broader tech sectors (I don't think it's a bubble, but rather a potential major correction, possibly happening this year)
- Japan policy uncertainty, which could disrupt yen carry trades and tighten global liquidity
- Ongoing geopolitical tensions
- Sovereign debt markets facing repricing pressures, especially at the long-end of government bond yields
- Global growth slowing down, putting pressure on corporate earnings expectations
Individually, any one of these issues isn't fatal.
But if multiple factors coincide, they could quickly evolve into a black swan event, posing systemic risks to global markets.
When overlaying this macro backdrop onto Bitcoin's four-year cycle, the period from late Q3 2026 to year-end is likely to be more challenging for the crypto market.
Of course, some argue that ETFs, institutional participation, and changes in market structure have rendered the four-year cycle "obsolete."
I don't fully agree with that view.
I acknowledge the cycle is weakening. I also agree it's become less clean and less dramatic. But I don't believe it has disappeared.
Market structures evolve, but human nature, liquidity cycles, and positioning behavior don't vanish overnight.
Simply put:
If a noticeable pullback occurs around late Q3 2026 when $BTC appears, I won't be surprised at all.
That's typically when I'd increase my buying, not exit or panic.
I'd view it as part of the cycle, not a rejection of the long-term logic.
Historically, the most uncomfortable moments often give rise to the most asymmetric long-term opportunities.
- Political uncertainty related to the midterm election cycle
- Valuation and sentiment risks in AI and broader tech sectors (I don't think it's a bubble, but rather a potential major correction, possibly happening this year)
- Japan policy uncertainty, which could disrupt yen carry trades and tighten global liquidity
- Ongoing geopolitical tensions
- Sovereign debt markets facing repricing pressures, especially at the long-end of government bond yields
- Global growth slowing down, putting pressure on corporate earnings expectations
Individually, any one of these issues isn't fatal.
But if multiple factors coincide, they could quickly evolve into a black swan event, posing systemic risks to global markets.
When overlaying this macro backdrop onto Bitcoin's four-year cycle, the period from late Q3 2026 to year-end is likely to be more challenging for the crypto market.
Of course, some argue that ETFs, institutional participation, and changes in market structure have rendered the four-year cycle "obsolete."
I don't fully agree with that view.
I acknowledge the cycle is weakening. I also agree it's become less clean and less dramatic. But I don't believe it has disappeared.
Market structures evolve, but human nature, liquidity cycles, and positioning behavior don't vanish overnight.
Simply put:
If a noticeable pullback occurs around late Q3 2026 when $BTC appears, I won't be surprised at all.
That's typically when I'd increase my buying, not exit or panic.
I'd view it as part of the cycle, not a rejection of the long-term logic.
Historically, the most uncomfortable moments often give rise to the most asymmetric long-term opportunities.
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