槐安国南柯郡太守
低杠杆，宽止损。
Frequent Trader
4 Years
31 Following
7.6K+ Followers
1.5K+ Liked
145 Shared
All
Quotes
Live
PINNED
The core of short-term trading is stability and repeatability. The fundamental obstacle to achieving stable profits in subjective trading is not knowing how the market will move next. All strategies, mindsets, and capital management are aimed at addressing the issue of 'not knowing how the market will move next'.
Too much leads to confusion, too little leads to gain. Grooming, dog fighting, contracts, prediction markets, all want to play. Chasing two rabbits, you won't catch one.
Learned
Pickle Cat
·
--
Your "get rich quick" mentality is the real culprit preventing you from making big money — By Pickle Cat
I bought my first Bitcoin in 2013.
As a seasoned investor who has lived to 2026 and experienced over a decade of market cycles, I've seen countless ways this market can destroy and ruin people.
I've discovered that over this long period, there seems to be an undeniable ironclad rule:
That is, in this circle, the definition of "winning" is never how much money you make.
Everyone who has been involved in this circle has made money at least once, no matter how novice they are or how small their initial capital is; they can become a "genius" for a short time.
So what exactly is "winning"? It's making money and being able to keep that money even years later.
As a seasoned investor who has lived to 2026 and experienced over a decade of market cycles, I've seen countless ways this market can destroy and ruin people.
I've discovered that over this long period, there seems to be an undeniable ironclad rule:
That is, in this circle, the definition of "winning" is never how much money you make.
Everyone who has been involved in this circle has made money at least once, no matter how novice they are or how small their initial capital is; they can become a "genius" for a short time.
So what exactly is "winning"? It's making money and being able to keep that money even years later.
CZ and Coinbase are very optimistic about Bitcoin in 2026. The year 2025 was a lost year for BTC compared to other major asset classes, will 2026 make up for it? $BTC
ANT.FUN has a one-minute free activity for 20 dollars, just need an X account. Those interested can go and give it a try. Only 2 days left for the activity.
👍
Pickle Cat
·
--
Some macro hidden risks I'm closely watching for 2026:
- Political uncertainty related to the midterm election cycle
- Valuation and sentiment risks in AI and broader tech sectors (I don't think it's a bubble, but rather a potential major correction, possibly happening this year)
- Japan policy uncertainty, which could disrupt yen carry trades and tighten global liquidity
- Ongoing geopolitical tensions
- Sovereign debt markets facing repricing pressures, especially at the long-end of government bond yields
- Global growth slowing down, putting pressure on corporate earnings expectations
Individually, any one of these issues isn't fatal.
But if multiple factors coincide, they could quickly evolve into a black swan event, posing systemic risks to global markets.
When overlaying this macro backdrop onto Bitcoin's four-year cycle, the period from late Q3 2026 to year-end is likely to be more challenging for the crypto market.
Of course, some argue that ETFs, institutional participation, and changes in market structure have rendered the four-year cycle "obsolete."
I don't fully agree with that view.
I acknowledge the cycle is weakening. I also agree it's become less clean and less dramatic. But I don't believe it has disappeared.
Market structures evolve, but human nature, liquidity cycles, and positioning behavior don't vanish overnight.
Simply put:
If a noticeable pullback occurs around late Q3 2026 when $BTC appears, I won't be surprised at all.
That's typically when I'd increase my buying, not exit or panic.
I'd view it as part of the cycle, not a rejection of the long-term logic.
Historically, the most uncomfortable moments often give rise to the most asymmetric long-term opportunities.
- Political uncertainty related to the midterm election cycle
- Valuation and sentiment risks in AI and broader tech sectors (I don't think it's a bubble, but rather a potential major correction, possibly happening this year)
- Japan policy uncertainty, which could disrupt yen carry trades and tighten global liquidity
- Ongoing geopolitical tensions
- Sovereign debt markets facing repricing pressures, especially at the long-end of government bond yields
- Global growth slowing down, putting pressure on corporate earnings expectations
Individually, any one of these issues isn't fatal.
But if multiple factors coincide, they could quickly evolve into a black swan event, posing systemic risks to global markets.
When overlaying this macro backdrop onto Bitcoin's four-year cycle, the period from late Q3 2026 to year-end is likely to be more challenging for the crypto market.
Of course, some argue that ETFs, institutional participation, and changes in market structure have rendered the four-year cycle "obsolete."
I don't fully agree with that view.
I acknowledge the cycle is weakening. I also agree it's become less clean and less dramatic. But I don't believe it has disappeared.
Market structures evolve, but human nature, liquidity cycles, and positioning behavior don't vanish overnight.
Simply put:
If a noticeable pullback occurs around late Q3 2026 when $BTC appears, I won't be surprised at all.
That's typically when I'd increase my buying, not exit or panic.
I'd view it as part of the cycle, not a rejection of the long-term logic.
Historically, the most uncomfortable moments often give rise to the most asymmetric long-term opportunities.
Twitter (X) will soon enable trading of virtual currencies and stocks. Musk is entering the scene, bringing inevitable changes to CEX. $BTC
Too slow! You're too slow to react when it comes to money-making opportunities!
Wow, I won the lottery, thank you An An.
👍
To add: The safest way to use a hot wallet is to generate a wallet with a mnemonic phrase and then create a Passphrase (hidden wallet). This way, even if the whole world knows your mnemonic phrase, they do not know your hidden wallet recovery phrase, and they cannot access your assets. Then, based on this foundation, you can use a multi-signature wallet (to transfer funds from the wallet, multiple wallets must confirm simultaneously).
For cold wallets, choose Trezor, because it is the only fully open-source option. At that time, the entire cryptocurrency space was still in its infancy, and even Ledger had not yet appeared. In other words, the pioneer of hardware wallets is Trezor; all others are latecomers. It has a very secure feature, Shamir Shares, which is the strongest defense against physical attacks and the best large storage solution, most suitable for large assets. It splits a mnemonic phrase into N pieces (Shares) and requires M pieces to restore the wallet. A regular cold wallet needs one mnemonic phrase to open the wallet, while with Shamir Shares, you can create five mnemonic phrases and set it up so that three or four are needed to open the wallet. This means that a thief or hacker would need 24 words multiplied by 3 to open your wallet, or three mnemonic phrases requiring two to open, or even 10 or 20. You can store them separately at home, in your car, or in a bank safe. Buy steel plates for the mnemonic phrases, lock them up, and put on anti-tamper strips. Then, through the Passphrase (hidden wallet), this is already institutional-level security protection, and that’s how I accumulate coins. The premise is that you do not authorize anything and only use the transfer function, avoiding any websites.
For this method, I dare say that among ten KOLs, no more than one understands it. I have an even better method, which is the ancient hundred billion giant whale's security level for accumulating coins on exchanges. After this wave of market exit, I will take the time to organize and write it out in detail.
For cold wallets, choose Trezor, because it is the only fully open-source option. At that time, the entire cryptocurrency space was still in its infancy, and even Ledger had not yet appeared. In other words, the pioneer of hardware wallets is Trezor; all others are latecomers. It has a very secure feature, Shamir Shares, which is the strongest defense against physical attacks and the best large storage solution, most suitable for large assets. It splits a mnemonic phrase into N pieces (Shares) and requires M pieces to restore the wallet. A regular cold wallet needs one mnemonic phrase to open the wallet, while with Shamir Shares, you can create five mnemonic phrases and set it up so that three or four are needed to open the wallet. This means that a thief or hacker would need 24 words multiplied by 3 to open your wallet, or three mnemonic phrases requiring two to open, or even 10 or 20. You can store them separately at home, in your car, or in a bank safe. Buy steel plates for the mnemonic phrases, lock them up, and put on anti-tamper strips. Then, through the Passphrase (hidden wallet), this is already institutional-level security protection, and that’s how I accumulate coins. The premise is that you do not authorize anything and only use the transfer function, avoiding any websites.
For this method, I dare say that among ten KOLs, no more than one understands it. I have an even better method, which is the ancient hundred billion giant whale's security level for accumulating coins on exchanges. After this wave of market exit, I will take the time to organize and write it out in detail.
Last day of 2025.
Set a stop loss.
$SOL
{future}(SOLUSDT)
Transaction record five. Long position in SOL, entry 125.77, stop loss 122.94, take profit 128.98. Buy and leave.
{future}(SOLUSDT)
Transaction record five. Long position in SOL, entry 125.77, stop loss 122.94, take profit 128.98. Buy and leave.
$SOL
Transaction record five. Long position in SOL, entry 125.77, stop loss 122.94, take profit 128.98. Buy and leave.
Transaction record five. Long position in SOL, entry 125.77, stop loss 122.94, take profit 128.98. Buy and leave.
Being silly again.
Stop loss in advance, close the position.
Stop loss in advance, close the position.
$SOL
{future}(SOLUSDT)
Transaction four. The third transaction was closed incorrectly, watching the market on the phone is still unreliable. Re-entering to go long, entry price 123.77, stop loss as usual 119, take profit set a bit more conservatively at 128.5.
{future}(SOLUSDT)
Transaction four. The third transaction was closed incorrectly, watching the market on the phone is still unreliable. Re-entering to go long, entry price 123.77, stop loss as usual 119, take profit set a bit more conservatively at 128.5.
$SOL
Transaction four. The third transaction was closed incorrectly, watching the market on the phone is still unreliable. Re-entering to go long, entry price 123.77, stop loss as usual 119, take profit set a bit more conservatively at 128.5.
Transaction four. The third transaction was closed incorrectly, watching the market on the phone is still unreliable. Re-entering to go long, entry price 123.77, stop loss as usual 119, take profit set a bit more conservatively at 128.5.
It shouldn't be flat. You shouldn't look at the market on your phone. Open a new position and go long.
Early closing. Small profit. The weekend is coming, liquidity is insufficient, worried it won't go up.
Early closing. Small profit. The weekend is coming, liquidity is insufficient, worried it won't go up.
{future}(SOLUSDT)
Trade third. Buy $SOL , entry 122.85, stop loss 119, take profit 134.
The first resistance is definitely around 127, but I believe that if it goes up, it should be able to break through this resistance, so I've decided to bet a bit higher.
The market has been too quiet these past two weeks.
Trade third. Buy $SOL , entry 122.85, stop loss 119, take profit 134.
The first resistance is definitely around 127, but I believe that if it goes up, it should be able to break through this resistance, so I've decided to bet a bit higher.
The market has been too quiet these past two weeks.
Trade third. Buy $SOL , entry 122.85, stop loss 119, take profit 134.
The first resistance is definitely around 127, but I believe that if it goes up, it should be able to break through this resistance, so I've decided to bet a bit higher.
The market has been too quiet these past two weeks.
The first resistance is definitely around 127, but I believe that if it goes up, it should be able to break through this resistance, so I've decided to bet a bit higher.
The market has been too quiet these past two weeks.
Not bad
My first mentor once told me a sentence
that has really stayed in my mind
He said:
Trade like a retired trader
What does it mean?
Usually in a retired state
Only when a setup is so good that not taking it would be regrettable, do you take action
If you trade this way
You will become very strong
To be honest
Most traders just need to trade a little less
and they will immediately improve
that has really stayed in my mind
He said:
Trade like a retired trader
What does it mean?
Usually in a retired state
Only when a setup is so good that not taking it would be regrettable, do you take action
If you trade this way
You will become very strong
To be honest
Most traders just need to trade a little less
and they will immediately improve
Login to explore more contents