1. Technical breakthrough: After a long sideways movement in the range of $94,000 – $96,000, Bitcoin managed to break through this level, reaching $97,939 on Bitstamp on January 13. Analysts believe that the breakout will be confirmed if the price holds $94,000 as new support.
2. Record corporate demand: The key fundamental driver is the unprecedented accumulation of BTC by companies. Over the past six months, corporate reserves have increased by 260,000 BTC (from 854,000 to 1.11 million coins), which is equivalent to a stable monthly demand of $4+ billion.
3. Comparison with gold: Analysts draw parallels with the precious metals market. The reasoning is based on the idea that if gold and silver can show growth, then bitcoin, as a younger and more volatile asset, has even greater potential after updating historical highs.
According to statistics, about 60% of January breakouts of bitcoin in the past ended with a return to the initial range by the end of February.
Monthly corporate purchases of 43,000 BTC account for only ~0.2% of the total supply, which may be insufficient for sustainable growth in a market with a capitalization of nearly $2 trillion.
Uncertainty surrounding the Fed's policy and the geopolitical situation can quickly halt even a technically convincing breakout.
Thus, the current moment is a struggle between a strong technical and fundamental signal (breakout, corporate demand) and historical statistics and macro risks. The near future depends on the ability of the price to hold above $94,000 and continue to rise.
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