Don't call it a bear market! BTC OG whale agent: now is fundamentally different from 2022
On January 19, Garrett Jin, the agent of the 'BTC OG insider whale', refuted the opinion circulating in the market that 'the current situation is similar to the bear market of 2022' on social media, stating that this comparison is completely absurd.
Garrett Jin pointed out that the current macro background is worlds apart from that of 2022: At the beginning of 2022, the primary goal of capital was to avoid risk, and Bitcoin was in a high distribution structure during a tightening cycle;
Now, however, the U.S. liquidity index has broken through short-term and long-term declining trends, and a new upward trend is emerging.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin displayed a weekly-level M top in 2021-2022, typically accompanied by long-term suppression;
Currently, it is in a weekly-level ascending channel, more like a trap after a rebound.
At the same time, the range of $80,000 - $86,000 has fully exchanged hands, and the digestion of chips has given the bulls a better risk-reward ratio.
He further clarified that restarting a bear market requires meeting three stringent conditions: a new inflation shock or a more severe geopolitical crisis, central banks restarting interest rate hikes or balance sheet reductions, and prices consistently falling below $80,850. It is premature to assert a bear market before these conditions are met.
More importantly, there has been a change in the investor structure: 2022 was a 'crypto-native bear market' dominated by retail investors and driven by high leverage;
Now Bitcoin has entered an institutional era, with stable underlying demand and locked supply, leading to lower volatility, which makes the market's resilience completely different. @阿二说趋势
