阿二说趋势

Wall Street bets on Trump "backing down"! TACO trading shows the probability of European tariffs taking effect is only 17%

On January 20, Polymarket data showed that the market is betting that Trump's threat of European tariffs is likely to be "much ado about nothing" — only 17% of users believe that all tariffs threatened by Trump will take effect on February 1. This sentiment has given rise to the "TACO" (Trump Always Chickens Out) trading strategy, where investors bet that Trump will ultimately back down from his tariff threats.
Wall Street reacted swiftly, with Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid noting that the market believes there is still "more room for volatility" and that it had previously overreacted to tariff threats and suffered losses. UBS Chief Economist Paul Donovan also stated that the bond sell-off behavior displayed by the market reflects that investors do not seem to take these threats too seriously.
Behind this phenomenon is the market's familiarity with Trump's "maximum pressure" negotiating style. Historically, Trump has often made tough statements on trade issues only to ultimately end in negotiation and compromise. Therefore, Wall Street chose to express skepticism towards tariff threats using the "TACO" trade.
However, this kind of betting also carries risks. If Trump ultimately insists on implementing the tariffs, the market could face a new round of severe volatility. @阿二说趋势
#美国核心CPI低于预期
#加密市场观察

Bloomberg Warning: Regulatory Weakness May 'Destroy' the Future of the Crypto Industry

On January 20, the Bloomberg editorial board issued a warning that despite the U.S. Congress trying to establish a legal framework for digital assets, aiming to encourage innovation while curbing illegal activities, this effort is likely to be counterproductive, especially with weakened regulatory powers and insufficient resources.

The article points out that the stablecoin regulatory bill, the "Genius Act," disperses important responsibilities among multiple regulatory agencies, while the key agency, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), has been severely weakened after layoffs and cyberattacks;

Another proposal, the "Clarity Act," could undermine the SEC's authority by placing most tokens under the jurisdiction of the CFTC, which has a budget only one-sixth that of the SEC and lacks adequate personnel and enforcement capabilities.

Worse still, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), responsible for handling consumer complaints related to crypto, has almost been "dismantled," further weakening the regulatory system.

Bloomberg believes that promoting crypto assets to a broader audience of the public and institutional investors in a context of insufficient regulatory capabilities could lead to a collapse of trust in the industry once fraud and crime issues persist.

The article calls for the establishment of a unified legal framework for trading all digital assets, with rules jointly formulated by the SEC and CFTC to ensure market stability, investor protection, and information disclosure.@阿二说趋势
#Strategy增持比特币
#加密市场观察
#币安钱包TGE

Immortals Clash! Two Whales Bet Millions on the Direction of ETH Contracts

On January 20, Lookonchain monitored a multi-million dollar ETH contract bet on the Hyperliquid platform: within the past 2 hours, two whale addresses deposited over 10 million USD each, directly entering a long-short duel mode.

Among them, address 0x4607 chose to short ETH, depositing 3 million USDC and opening a short position of 3,840 ETH (about 11.86 million USD) with 4x leverage, betting on a price decline;

While address 0xB66 chose to go long, depositing 7.38 million USDC and opening a long position of 10,000 ETH (about 30.92 million USD) with 12x leverage, betting on the market continuing to rise.

This high-leverage betting operation directly amplifies the short-term volatility of ETH. A long position with 12x leverage means that as long as the ETH price experiences a slight pullback, that address could face liquidation risk;

While a short position with 4x leverage is relatively stable, it also requires sufficient volatility to be profitable.

For ordinary investors, this whale duel serves as a window to observe market sentiment, but it also harbors risks — the large liquidation actions of whales could trigger violent fluctuations in ETH prices. @阿二说趋势
#Strategy增持比特币
#币安钱包TGE
#加密市场观察

The giant whale wins effortlessly! The floating profit of the 'BTC OG Insider Whale' has skyrocketed to 16.85 million USD, and the SOL long position has also turned around.

On January 20, Hypersight monitoring data showed that as Ethereum broke through 3100 USD, the floating profit of the 'BTC OG Insider Whale' is rapidly expanding, currently reaching a total floating profit of 16.85 million USD, and even the previously remaining SOL long position has turned from loss to profit.
Specifically, the profit structure of this giant whale is very clear:

ETH long position (5x): contributed 15.42 million USD in floating profit, becoming the largest source of profit
BTC long position (5x): floating profit of 650,000 USD
SOL long position (10x): floating profit of 780,000 USD

Although the current floating profit is impressive, the cumulative funding fee for this whale is still a loss of 7.92 million USD, which is a continuing cost brought by high leverage positions. However, its total position value has reached 848 million USD, demonstrating strong financial strength.

This surge in floating profit is mainly attributed to the strong rise of Ethereum, which also confirms the foresight of this whale's previous layout.

As an important barometer of market sentiment, its position changes and floating profit fluctuations have always been closely monitored by investors.
@阿二说趋势
#加密市场观察
$BTC
$ETH
$SOL

Global investors are going crazy! Bank of America survey: Optimism soars to a new high since July 2021, with the bull-bear indicator flashing a "extremely bullish" red light.

On January 20, Bank of America released the January fund manager survey, directly signaling a "frenzy warning" to the market: current global investor optimism has reached a new high since July 2021, with the bull-bear indicator soaring to 9.4, officially entering the "extremely bullish" range.

Data shows that the cash holdings of investors have dropped to a historic low of 3.2%, and protective measures against market corrections are at their lowest level since January 2018.

This means that everyone is almost fully invested in betting on an increase, with preparations for potential risks at an all-time low.

The survey also revealed the main concerns and focal points of the current market: geopolitical conflicts have become the biggest tail risk for the first time since October 2024, followed closely by risks associated with the artificial intelligence bubble.

Despite the overwhelming optimism, institutions have already begun to suggest increasing risk hedging and allocations to safe-haven assets, dousing cold water on the overheated market.

This combination of "extremely bullish + low-risk protection" is often a precursor to market corrections.

When everyone is betting on optimism, any minor disturbance could trigger a panic sell-off.

This survey from Bank of America serves as a wake-up call for investors: beneath the revelry, risks are quietly accumulating. @阿二说趋势
#加密市场观察
#美国核心CPI低于预期

Trump toughens stance on Greenland! Claims the issue has "no turning back" and directly points to U.S. national security.

On January 20, Trump posted on Truth Social, stating he had a phone conversation with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte regarding the Greenland issue and agreed that all parties would hold a meeting in Davos.
He emphasized that Greenland is "crucial" to U.S. and world security, and this matter has "no turning back."

In the post, Trump continued his tough style, declaring that the U.S. is the "strongest nation in the world" and the only power that can ensure world peace, with the means to achieve peace being "relying on strength." This statement again pushes the Greenland issue to the geopolitical forefront.

Greenland not only has abundant rare earth and mineral resources but, more importantly, its strategic position in the Arctic — controlling the island can give one the initiative in Arctic shipping routes, military deployments, and more.

Trump's statement is clearly aimed at strengthening U.S. discourse power in the Arctic region ahead of the Davos Forum, while also sending a clear signal to NATO allies.

For the market, such geopolitical statements may trigger a rise in short-term risk aversion, subsequently driving fluctuations in assets like gold and the U.S. dollar, and may also indirectly affect global trade and energy patterns. @阿二说趋势
#加密市场观察
#U.S. SEC tokenized stock trading plan

The yen has plummeted! Citigroup warns: The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates three times in 2026

On January 20, Akira Hoshino, head of Citigroup's Japan market operations, issued a significant warning: If the yen continues to weaken, the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates three times this year, directly doubling the interest rate level.

Hoshino's judgment is based on a critical threshold for the yen exchange rate: If the USD/JPY exchange rate breaks 160, the Bank of Japan may take the lead in raising the uncollateralized overnight call rate by 25 basis points to 1% in April;

If the yen exchange rate remains low, a second rate hike of the same magnitude may occur in July, and there may even be a third hike before the end of the year.

He explained that the root of the yen's weakness lies in negative real interest rates, and the central bank has no choice but to raise interest rates if it wants to reverse the depreciation of the exchange rate. Currently, Hoshino expects the yen exchange rate to fluctuate weakly within the range of 150 to 165 this year.

This forecast directly breaks the market's inertia expectation of the Bank of Japan's "long-term zero interest rate."

Once the interest rate hike is implemented, it will not only impact the yen exchange rate but may also trigger a chain reaction in global capital flows — such as the unwinding of yen carry trades, which could affect risk assets such as U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies. @阿二说趋势
#币安钱包TGE
#加密市场观察
#Strategy increase Bitcoin holdings

Trump's tariff bomb detonates the market! Gold soars past $4700, Bitcoin plummets briefly

On January 20, a statement from Trump regarding tariffs directly flipped the global market — he announced a 200% tariff on French wine and champagne, and stated he would discuss Greenland issues at Davos, instantly triggering concerns about an escalation in US-EU trade conflicts.

Once the news broke, safe-haven asset gold skyrocketed, with spot gold breaking through $4700/ounce for the first time, setting a new historical high, as funds poured into this traditional safe-haven tool.

In contrast, risk asset Bitcoin faced a brief sell-off, with prices once dropping below $92,000, highlighting a stark contrast to gold's trajectory.

This wave of market activity perfectly illustrates the logic of "rising risk aversion, pressure on risk assets": Trump's tariff threats intensified global trade uncertainty, causing funds to withdraw from highly volatile crypto assets and shift towards more stable gold.

For investors, such sudden geopolitical events often lead to severe short-term market fluctuations, with Bitcoin's drop being a typical reaction of risk assets.

The new high in gold also reflects the current urgent demand for safe-haven assets. @阿二说趋势
#加密市场观察
#币安钱包TGE
#Strategy增持比特币

Coinbase CEO arrives in Davos! Personally pushing for the U.S. crypto market structure bill

On January 20, Coinbase was very active at the Davos World Economic Forum, with CEO Brian Armstrong personally leading the team and holding intensive meetings with several bank CEOs to fully promote the formulation of the U.S. crypto market structure bill, attempting to secure a more favorable regulatory environment for the crypto industry.

The core demand of this push is to make stablecoins a "fair competitive tool" between crypto companies and traditional banks, and to hope that this will be clearly stated in the bill. Coinbase also stated that it will continue to provide updates to the U.S. Senate and government, pushing for the implementation of regulatory details.

It is worth mentioning that previously, due to the bill draft's proposal to prohibit crypto companies from paying interest on idle stablecoin balances, Coinbase once withdrew its support for the bill. Now returning to the negotiation table also demonstrates the industry's giants' flexible strategies in regulatory games.

In addition to pushing the bill, Armstrong also communicated with global leaders in Davos, discussing the updates of the crypto financial system and the potential of tokenization in capital markets, trying to push the narrative of the crypto industry toward a more mainstream stage.

This trip to Davos is not only a key public relations move for Coinbase but also an important step for the crypto industry to proactively speak to traditional finance and regulatory bodies. @阿二说趋势
#Strategy增持比特币
#加密市场观察
#币安钱包TGE

The "V God" of programmers boosts Meme coins! NPM goes live with a market cap of 6.9 million within 4 hours, trading volume exceeds 6.4 million

On January 20, the Meme coin NPM from the BAGS ecosystem ignited the market as soon as it launched — according to GMGN data, its market cap soared to 6.9 million USD within just 4 hours, before retreating to 5.4 million USD, with a 24-hour trading volume exceeding 6.4 million USD, becoming a new hot topic in the crypto space.

The core of this wave of enthusiasm lies in the narrative of NPM: it pays tribute to Isaac Z. Schlueter, the founder of the world’s largest package manager NPM, who is known as the "V God" of programmers.

This precise appeal to the sentiments of the developer community attracted a lot of attention from tech circles and Meme coin players right from the project's early days.

As a new member of the BAGS ecosystem, NPM continues the Meme coin strategy of "emotion-driven + concept hype", without any actual landing scenarios, fully relying on community enthusiasm and narrative support. Because of this, the price fluctuations are extremely volatile, soaring right after launch before quickly retreating, a typical Meme coin trend.

BlockBeats also reminds that this type of currency has no actual value; participating in trading is more like an emotional gamble, and investors should be cautious when entering to avoid blindly chasing highs. @阿二说趋势
#加密市场观察
#币安钱包TGE
#Strategy增持比特币

Don't call it a bear market! BTC OG whale agent: now is fundamentally different from 2022

On January 19, Garrett Jin, the agent of the 'BTC OG insider whale', refuted the opinion circulating in the market that 'the current situation is similar to the bear market of 2022' on social media, stating that this comparison is completely absurd.

Garrett Jin pointed out that the current macro background is worlds apart from that of 2022: At the beginning of 2022, the primary goal of capital was to avoid risk, and Bitcoin was in a high distribution structure during a tightening cycle;

Now, however, the U.S. liquidity index has broken through short-term and long-term declining trends, and a new upward trend is emerging.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin displayed a weekly-level M top in 2021-2022, typically accompanied by long-term suppression;

Currently, it is in a weekly-level ascending channel, more like a trap after a rebound.

At the same time, the range of $80,000 - $86,000 has fully exchanged hands, and the digestion of chips has given the bulls a better risk-reward ratio.

He further clarified that restarting a bear market requires meeting three stringent conditions: a new inflation shock or a more severe geopolitical crisis, central banks restarting interest rate hikes or balance sheet reductions, and prices consistently falling below $80,850. It is premature to assert a bear market before these conditions are met.

More importantly, there has been a change in the investor structure: 2022 was a 'crypto-native bear market' dominated by retail investors and driven by high leverage;

Now Bitcoin has entered an institutional era, with stable underlying demand and locked supply, leading to lower volatility, which makes the market's resilience completely different. @阿二说趋势
#Strategy增持比特币
#加密市场观察
$BTC

Bitcoin experiences a 'sharp decline to clear leverage'! Analyst: The decrease in forced liquidations may signal the completion of deleveraging

On January 19, CryptoQuant analyst Axel interpreted Bitcoin's early morning crash on social media, pointing out that this is a typical case of a 'sharp decline in an overheated market to clear leverage'.

Data shows that from January 13 to 15, the 'advanced sentiment index' for Bitcoin soared to the extreme bullish range of 80%, coinciding with the price approaching a local high of $97,000.

Today, this index has plummeted to 44.9%, directly falling below the 50% neutral line, with market sentiment shifting from euphoria to caution in an instant.

Axel explained that this index integrates multidimensional data such as volume-weighted average price, net active trading volume, and open contracts. Falling below the neutral line indicates a change in market structure and risk quality.

If it can regain 50% and stabilize, it would be the first signal of market stabilization; however, if it further dips toward the bearish range of 20%, it may trigger a deeper adjustment.

From the details of the crash, the forced liquidation in a single hour exceeded $205 million, and the spot volatility indicator surged to 97.96%, indicating that the forced liquidations were almost entirely dominated by long positions, which were forced liquidations rather than active selling.

Axel pointed out that this is precisely the 'sharp decline to clear leverage' model of an overheated market. If the forced liquidation volume continues to decrease in the next few hours, it will signify that the deleveraging process is nearing completion. @阿二说趋势
#Strategy增持比特币
#加密市场观察
$BTC

The wave giant "Strategy Opponent" is buying the dip again! 270 million USD BTC and ETH long positions entered

On January 19, Coinbob address monitoring showed that the whale address known as "Strategy Opponent" (0x94d) has taken action again, continuously increasing its BTC and ETH long positions in the past few hours, with the total holding size rising to 270 million USD, once again accurately catching the market correction rhythm.

This operation can be described as a textbook example of "buying the dip during a crash": early this morning, when Bitcoin plummeted, this address had closed out its long positions on the three major cryptocurrencies due to volatility, incurring losses of over 15.3 million USD.

However, it immediately bought BTC and ETH at the bottom with 20x leverage, with related positions once reaching 53 million USD, and it fully closed the positions around 3 PM today; now re-entering the market is clearly betting on a subsequent price rebound.

Specifically, the current holdings of this address are:

15x ETH long position: size about 221 million USD, average price 3213 USD, floating profit 240,000 USD
20x BTC long position: size about 43.7 million USD, average price 93,000 USD, floating profit 30,000 USD

As an "on-chain opponent" operating in the opposite direction to MicroStrategy, this whale started building positions in December last year, with an initial size of only 20 million USD, and has now pushed its holdings to the hundred million USD level through multiple reverse long trades.

Its high leverage and high-frequency wave operations have also become an important barometer for observing market sentiment. @阿二说趋势
#Strategy增持比特币
#加密市场观察
#币安钱包TGE

Bitcoin's plunge disaster! In just 2 hours, it plummeted by 3000 USD, triggering the largest liquidation at 25.83 million USD

On the morning of January 19, Bitcoin experienced a shocking plunge — in just 2 hours, it crashed from 95,400 USD to below 92,000 USD, directly causing a wave of liquidations across the entire network.

The most severe scene occurred on the Hyperliquid platform, where a single liquidation amount reached 25.83 million USD, equivalent to nearly 280 Bitcoins disappearing in an instant. This wave of decline caused significant losses for leveraged traders, with long positions being forcibly liquidated in bulk.

More importantly, the market did not fall into panic selling after the plunge; instead, a phenomenon of "increasing leverage as prices fall" emerged: as of the time of writing, the total contract positions of Bitcoin across the network rose to 663,900, an increase of about 14,000 from the previous day. This indicates that during price corrections, a large amount of capital is still choosing to increase leverage to enter the market and bet on a subsequent rebound.

This combination of "plunge + increasing positions" reflects the current contradictory mentality of the market: on one hand, short-term plunges trigger fears of liquidation; on the other hand, funds still have expectations for future trends and choose to increase positions at low levels. @阿二说趋势 , #Strategy增持比特币 , #币安钱包TGE , #加密市场观察

The privacy coin sector has gone wild! DUSK skyrocketed by 120% in a single day

On January 19, the privacy coin sector in the crypto market suddenly exploded, showcasing a “surge” trend.

Among them, DUSK topped the list with a single-day increase of 124.8%, currently priced at $0.2625, with a 24-hour trading volume exceeding $237 million, becoming the most eye-catching asset of the day.

Not only DUSK, but the entire privacy coin sector is also on the rise: Secret had a single-day increase of 35.2%, the established privacy coin DCR rose by 16.1%, and Dash also increased by 13.3%.

Funds are collectively pouring into this previously relatively quiet sector, making privacy coins the focal point of the market that day.

The explosion of this trend is partly due to market funds seeking new speculative directions during rotation, and partly related to the narrative of privacy coins themselves — amidst tightening regulations, the demand for anonymous transactions continues to exist, and the hedging attributes of these coins are gaining renewed attention.

However, the volatility of privacy coins has always been severe, and BlockBeats also reminds investors: the prices of these coins fluctuate greatly, accompanied by high regulatory and liquidity risks, so risk control should be done when participating in speculation. @阿二说趋势
#Strategy增持比特币
#加密市场观察
#Binance Wallet TGE

2200 USD turned into 130,000! BSC chain Meme coin '1' earns 59 times in 30 hours, Musk's retweet boosts its popularity

On January 19, the Meme coin '1' on the BSC chain directly staged a wealth myth — according to GMGN data, the top address of the project invested only 2200 USD, and within 30 hours, the profit soared to 130,000 USD, with a return rate as high as 59 times.

This operation can be described as precisely timed: the address entered when the project's market value was 48,200 USD and sold 1250 USD when the market value surged to 68,000 USD, while holding onto the remaining shares.

As of the time of writing, '1' has already soared to a market value of 8.75 million USD, and it is still aiming for 9 million USD in the short term.

Interestingly, the narrative of this Meme coin comes from the article 'How to fix your entire life in 1 day', which was briefly retweeted by Musk on the 18th.

Musk's traffic boost directly injected a wave of popularity into '1', becoming an important driver of the coin's price surge.

However, behind the celebration, the risks are high: Meme coins rely entirely on emotions and conceptual speculation, lacking actual value and experiencing extreme price fluctuations.

BlockBeats also reminds that these types of trades are more like gambling, and investors should enter with caution.@阿二说趋势
#Strategy增持比特币
#币安钱包TGE
#Crypto Market Observation

Ethereum stabilizing at $3085 is key! Holding this level opens the chance to reach $4000

On January 19, cryptocurrency market analyst @alicharts drew a lifeline for Ethereum: as long as it holds the support level of $3085, it can maintain its current upward trend, and there may even be a chance to challenge the $4000 high.

First, looking at the fundamentals: in the past two weeks, the number of daily active addresses on Ethereum has surpassed 800,000, indicating that network participation is recovering, which provides underlying support for the coin's price.

At the same time, buy orders for the Ethereum ETF are concentrated in the range of $3119 to $2772, which has also become a key support zone. This means that once it pulls back to this area, buying pressure may quickly enter to support the price.

From a technical perspective, Ethereum is currently in a triangular consolidation pattern on the daily chart. Analysts believe that as long as the price does not fall below $3085, there is a chance to break through the resistance level of $3400;

Once broken, the price may directly surge towards $3660, or even challenge the $4000 mark.

For traders, $3085 is the current 'line of life or death': holding it means the upward trend remains intact, while breaking it may trigger a new round of pullback.

Moreover, the concentrated support zone of ETF buy orders makes the defense of this price level even stronger. @阿二说趋势
#Strategy增持比特币
#加密市场观察
$ETH

Act according to circumstances and first secure a short position with a space of over 2300 points!

The short for Bitcoin from 94688 to 92371, 2317 points, and 9268 oil

Follow Second Brother's lead; teaching a man to fish is better than giving him fish. Others talk about probabilities, we provide certainties.
@阿二说趋势 $BTC $ETH $SOL
#加密市场观察
#Strategy increase Bitcoin holdings

Morning market polarization! Gold and silver soar with the tailwind of risk aversion, while cryptocurrencies experience a shocking plunge. Bitcoin crashed nearly 4000 points, and the two-day gains instantly returned to zero.

After a high-level consolidation, liquidity harvesting and the brutal clearing of long positions played out. Structurally, the sharp drop in cryptocurrencies resembles a liquidity battle; although the daily chart is dominated by bears, the RSI has entered the oversold zone, and downward momentum is nearing exhaustion.

It is suggested to go long around 92000-92800, targeting 93000-94000.
@阿二说趋势
#Strategy增持比特币
#加密市场观察
$BTC

Bitcoin has fallen below $92,000! Analysts say $85,000 is support, and the second half of the month will see a range-bound fluctuation.

On January 19, Bitcoin briefly fell below $92,000, with a total liquidation amount exceeding $865 million in 24 hours, causing market sentiment to tighten instantly.

Fisher Capital investment analyst Lai Yuen pointed out that this drop is mainly due to the resurgence of the US-EU trade war, coupled with market concerns over Trump’s new tariff proposal, leading to a double whammy.

Bitget chief analyst Ryan Lee also added that this correction is more a result of global risk sentiment fluctuations rather than fundamental issues in the crypto market.

The increase in macro uncertainty, combined with a large profit-taking wave after the previous surge, has made investors cautious across various markets such as stocks, commodities, and digital assets, further suppressing coin prices.

Regarding future trends, Lee provided a clear judgment: Bitcoin is expected to maintain a range-bound pattern in the second half of January, with a support level likely around $85,000.

This means that it will be difficult for the coin price to reach new highs in the short term, and it will more likely fluctuate between key price levels.

In simple terms, Bitcoin is currently under dual pressure from “macro headwinds + profit-taking”, with $85,000 becoming an important defense line for bulls.

If this support level can be maintained in the future, the market may gradually digest selling pressure during fluctuations; once it fails to hold, the extent of the correction may further expand. @阿二说趋势
#Strategy增持比特币
#加密市场观察
#币安钱包TGE