From the history of BTC, each cycle of investor sentiment goes through 4 stages:

1. Optimistic area (dark purple / dark color): Large entities are significantly increasing their holdings, driving the price up;

2. Profit area (yellow / orange): As the price rises rapidly, early profit-taking chips begin to reduce their holdings;

3. Hesitation area (dark purple / dark color): The price retracts from a high point, and some investors choose to increase their holdings to average down their costs;

4. Disappointment area (yellow / orange): Investors lose confidence in the future market, and chips begin to loosen.

As the price drops to a certain extent, after the bottom consensus is reconstructed, investor sentiment will re-enter stage 1, and thus it repeats in cycles... Over time, it forms an endogenous rule of market sentiment change (indicator explanation at the end).

This cycle has experienced two instances of 1 and 2 under extremely special macroeconomic background influences, once due to ETF approval and once due to Trump's election.

During the period from October to December 2025, when the BTC price retreated from a high position, there was significant accumulation by large entities. Combined with previous experiences, this aligns very well with the characteristics of phase 3 of the sentiment cycle.

Currently, we see that the colors of the dots in the indicators (representing each day) are gradually changing from 'dark' to 'light', indicating signs of investor sentiment 'transitioning from phase 3 to phase 4'.

If we separate the groups based on different holding scales, we can find that during the period from October to December 2025, the darkening in color was due to the whale group holding 100-1k BTC actively accumulating, followed by the whale group holding 1k-10k BTC starting to accumulate.

However, the latter has now stopped accumulating, while the former has even shifted to a distribution state, which is the reason for the indicator's color change from dark to light.

Lack of confidence (as evidenced in the cited data) is the fundamental reason why BTC cannot change its trend. Investors tend to 'buy more as the price rises' during optimistic periods, and 'sell at every rise' during periods of disappointment, which in turn influences more other investors.

To reverse the situation, it is necessary to stimulate demand through a long period of repair and external conditions or to attract demand at lower prices to build a true bottom consensus.

--------------------------------------------
Indicator explanation:

'BTC Accumulation Trend Score' measures two points:
1. Entity scale weight, where each entity's BTC holding scale is different, and the behavior weight of large funds is much higher than that of small addresses.
2. Net changes over the last 30 days; whether there is continued net buying or net selling.

The darker the color, the higher the degree of 1 and 2, and vice versa, the lighter the color.