📌 Core Signal
1. Short-term trend of Bitcoin
Current Price: $90,986.91 (↓2.38%)
Market Structure: Prices are in a pullback and consolidation, but on-chain signals show divergence. Retail participation is at a 'neutral' level in both the spot and futures markets, with overall trading volume shrinking to a 'cooling' state, indicating a cooling of short-term speculative sentiment. However, beneath this calm, the spot market has seen 'whale orders,' and the CVD for both spot and derivatives over the past 90 days shows 'buying dominance by large buyers,' indicating that large players and long-term investors are actively accumulating during the pullback.
Liquidation warning: Given that retail leverage sentiment is not high, the risk of a waterfall decline due to chain liquidations is relatively low in the short term.
Liquidation overview: No large-scale liquidations were observed in the past 24 hours. It is noteworthy that the funding rate rebounded significantly by over 500% today after plummeting yesterday, while open interest rose moderately by 1.59%. This indicates that confidence is recovering as the market completes deleveraging, and funds are flowing back in a healthier manner, but have not yet reached overheating levels. There was a slight net inflow to exchanges today, possibly representing profit-taking, which needs to be monitored.
2. Operation window
Buy signal emerges: As retail sentiment cools and high leverage is cleared, the risk of chasing highs has significantly decreased. The MVRV ratio is far below the historical peak zone, leaving room for medium-term increases. The current market structure is more suitable for buying on dips rather than chasing highs.
Support zone reference: Technical indicators are missing. The current key support mainly comes from structural buying, namely the cost area established by long-term investors and large whales who have recently accumulated.
Funding is turning healthy: Open interest is rebounding, accompanied by a moderate rebound in the funding rate from low levels, which is a positive signal for market sentiment and the vitality of funds. This indicates that capital has not exited the market but is accumulating strength for the next phase of the market.
3. Macroeconomic risks
Factors intertwining: Easing inflation pressure in Europe (decline in German PPI) increases expectations for rate cuts by the ECB, which may inject liquidity into the market; however, Trump's tariff threats have triggered global trade concerns, while rising U.S. Treasury yields reflect pressures on a stronger dollar, jointly suppressing the crypto market and other risk assets.
Global risk aversion heats up: Trump's tariff threats have triggered a sharp drop in European stocks and a general correction in global markets. Safe-haven funds are significantly flowing into precious metals like gold and silver, while the crypto market has yet to show safe-haven properties and may instead be under pressure due to tightening liquidity.
APAC policy impact: China's continuous fiscal stimulus (ultra-long special government bonds) and consumer support policies have a positive effect on stabilizing APAC market sentiment, but their impact on boosting global risk appetite still needs observation.
⚠Must-watch events
【1.23】Japan's early election → The results may affect the yen exchange rate and the flow of funds in Asian markets.
【2.01】Trump's effective date for tariffs on Europe → Caution is needed as Europe's potential countermeasures may trigger a flash crash in global markets, impacting risk assets.
【Continued Attention】Federal Reserve Chair candidates and interest rate path → Hawkish candidates or a rebound in U.S. inflation data may push up the dollar and suppress BTC trends.
【Continued Attention】Davos Forum → Trump may release more policy signals during this period, triggering market volatility.
🚀Minimal strategy pool
Aggressive traders: Can base trading on signals from 'large whale orders' and 'long-term buyer dominance' to build positions or increase holdings near current prices. Note that a 'cooling' in trading volume may indicate a prolonged consolidation period, so position size should be controlled and stop-losses set.
Conservatives: Continue holding coins or observing off-market. Wait for clearer right-side signals, such as a price breakout with volume above the upper boundary of the current consolidation range, to confirm the end of the pullback and the start of a new upward trend before entering the market.
Short sellers: Currently, it is a window period to seek opportunities for phased accumulation after risk reduction. This can be combined with the progress of macro events. If the market can smoothly navigate recent uncertainties and prices receive effective support in the current area, it will be an ideal time for buying on dips.
