ETH plummeted last night, directly breaking through 3200, hitting a low of 3045, and the entire network is in a state of panic. Are you also feeling anxious? Don't rush to cut losses; see clearly: institutions are quietly accumulating while you panic!
Let's first look at the news:
Last week, Bitmine increased its holdings by 35,268 ETH, worth approximately $108.7 million. This is not simply a case of 'buying the dip,' but a systematic accumulation. Its total ETH holdings have reached 4.203 million, accounting for 3.48% of the total Ethereum supply, and it has completed nearly 70% of the '5% alchemy target.' More notably, it has staked 1.838 million ETH and plans to launch the MAVAN staking solution in Q1 2026, indicating that institutions are positioning themselves for the long-term value of the Ethereum staking ecosystem.
News Summary
Whales have not exited; instead, they are continuously increasing their positions, expanding pledges, and laying out their ecosystem during the crash. This sends a strong signal: institutions view the current price level as a strategic allocation range, rather than an exit point.
Looking at the technicals again:
MACD is showing an accelerated downward trend: DIF(-43.77) and DEA(-20.51) are not only below the zero axis, but the difference is also expanding. The MACD histogram (-46.51) is in a "green bar expansion" state, indicating that bearish momentum is strengthening rather than weakening.
Overselling ≠ Rebound: Although RSI1(8.31) and K value (10.98) have both entered the extreme overselling zone, trading volume (MA5: 211,000) continues to shrink, with a net outflow of funds reaching 13 million USD. This "volume-less overselling" is the most dangerous signal—indicating that no major players are willing to take over at this position.
Pressure levels are moving down, forming a "death stair": 3410→3200→2910, each pressure level is lower than the previous one. This staircase-like downward movement is a typical continuation pattern of a downtrend. Particularly at 3200, it has changed from a support level to a strong resistance level, forming a "top-bottom conversion."
The 4-hour K-line shows a "declining mode": falling from a high of 3110 to a low of 3045, without any significant rebounds during the entire process. Each slight rise has been met with greater selling pressure; this is a typical declining trend, often more persistent than a sharp drop.
Technical Summary
The technical structure is biased towards bearishness, but extreme overselling suggests a possible short-term rebound. The key is whether it can reclaim 3200 with volume; otherwise, it will continue to probe lower, with a target of 2900. Want to know at which specific point to enter and where the safest stop-loss is set? Captain Village has already provided reminders; if you want to follow along, become a Captain villager!
What should the player do?
The technicals remain bearish; after the price broke the key level of 3200, momentum weakened, making a short-term rebound difficult to sustain. If the support level of 2910 is lost, it may further probe below 2900.
It is advisable to remain cautious; wait for the price to clearly stabilize above 2910 before considering phased layouts. Aggressive traders may attempt to short with small positions when resistance is encountered around 3200 during a rebound, with strict stop-losses. Do not blindly catch the bottom.
Personal opinion: I believe the current trend is a result of the "institutional wash trading" and "market sentiment panic" overlay. Waiting for the continuous buying from whales indicates that the 3000–3100 range has been recognized by some institutions as a medium to long-term value range. Although the short-term technicals are under pressure, the fundamentals of the ETH ecosystem have not deteriorated. This drop is more due to tightening market liquidity and deleveraging rather than a deterioration in fundamentals.
The captain announces three strategies daily in the village. If your position is not 5 million, please follow the captain's real-time suggestions in the village to avoid liquidation risks. The current market is unpredictable, and each villager has a different position; please keep updating the entry points announced by the captain in the village!#BTC #ETH $ETH
