You are right and we did indeed hit our "late peak" box quite centered.

But implications are everything and I kindly urge you to not mix up timeframes nor bias on each.

The post you highlighted is indeed monthly (macro) timeframe. The longs we entered at 85k and TP'd at 95k recently, as well as the late risky longs suggested at 92k, are daily timeframes.

I could write essays (but saving you) on how often timeframes get mixed up and how small moves get interpreted as "larger moves are coming" or vice versa. Sheerly due to X getting ultra bearish on small price swings down (during bull markets) or ultra bullish on small price swings up (during bear markets).

At the time of hitting that box, I indeed sold 25% of my long term bitcoin cyclical bag, bought at 21.5k alongside the large amount of leverage and longs we closed at 125k.

But that is it.

Back at 80-85k range recently, my posts tone peaked exceptionally bullish because of analysis for one, where our high timeframe targets (95k, 112k) are coming and are worth longing for.

And sentiment for two, where many turned bearish inside that exact range as highlighted clearly (confirmation our idea wasn't popular).

We are still above that 80 - 85k range, and that upside bias still holds.

I am keeping that bias until our weekly bottom range plays out into the next high (IMO still valid), or, on the low chance, the scenario invalidates, logically.

In terms of selling spot at 125k, that's only a mild 25%, first cyclical TP on macro timeframes into loads and loads of ath celebrations.

I do not deem it worth to sell anything more long term on BTC at these price levels, since the absolute bear market low (if it happens), won't be 80%+ down as the usual bear markets we have seen.

If the bear market even happens (not yet imo), the lowest I see price go is still above 50k.

Absolutely not worth selling into at this point, especially not in the 80k's here.

Hence, no high timeframe ultra bearish implications. And hence why I do not keep a bearish tone even if it gives lots of engagement at the moment (a bearish tone is currently what people want to hear).

The most logical move remains to look for neutral upside, especially 30% off the high, and patiently wait for good entries.

If we truly lose this weekly range and go below 80k and close weekly, then I am wrong on my weekly bottoming thesis towards 112k and +.

But I won't expect a full bear market at that point nor use that language.

At that point, I look to space out high timeframe cyclical buys, catch big buys close to the absolute bottom, as a deemed bear market low would already be a lot closer than most believe.

Do I believe that happens? No. We are still at 89k. And the 25% spot selling at 125k was just a form of routine practice I do every cycle.

Not every time is worth getting ultra bearish in them. Many on Square will do it to seem smart. I personally aim to set myself up each time for maximized gains and minimized losses instead.

That's how I framed to close lots of leverage 125k, get long again 80-85k.

Considering move by move on every timeframe (and separating timeframes).

Trading and investing in a nutshell.