Eternel insatisfait

You are right and we did indeed hit our "late peak" box quite centered.
But implications are everything and I kindly urge you to not mix up timeframes nor bias on each.
The post you highlighted is indeed monthly (macro) timeframe. The longs we entered at 85k and TP'd at 95k recently, as well as the late risky longs suggested at 92k, are daily timeframes.
I could write essays (but saving you) on how often timeframes get mixed up and how small moves get interpreted as "larger moves are coming" or vice versa. Sheerly due to X getting ultra bearish on small price swings down (during bull markets) or ultra bullish on small price swings up (during bear markets).
At the time of hitting that box, I indeed sold 25% of my long term bitcoin cyclical bag, bought at 21.5k alongside the large amount of leverage and longs we closed at 125k.
But that is it.
Back at 80-85k range recently, my posts tone peaked exceptionally bullish because of analysis for one, where our high timeframe targets (95k, 112k) are coming and are worth longing for.
And sentiment for two, where many turned bearish inside that exact range as highlighted clearly (confirmation our idea wasn't popular).
We are still above that 80 - 85k range, and that upside bias still holds.
I am keeping that bias until our weekly bottom range plays out into the next high (IMO still valid), or, on the low chance, the scenario invalidates, logically.
In terms of selling spot at 125k, that's only a mild 25%, first cyclical TP on macro timeframes into loads and loads of ath celebrations.
I do not deem it worth to sell anything more long term on BTC at these price levels, since the absolute bear market low (if it happens), won't be 80%+ down as the usual bear markets we have seen.
If the bear market even happens (not yet imo), the lowest I see price go is still above 50k.
Absolutely not worth selling into at this point, especially not in the 80k's here.
Hence, no high timeframe ultra bearish implications. And hence why I do not keep a bearish tone even if it gives lots of engagement at the moment (a bearish tone is currently what people want to hear).
The most logical move remains to look for neutral upside, especially 30% off the high, and patiently wait for good entries.
If we truly lose this weekly range and go below 80k and close weekly, then I am wrong on my weekly bottoming thesis towards 112k and +.
But I won't expect a full bear market at that point nor use that language.
At that point, I look to space out high timeframe cyclical buys, catch big buys close to the absolute bottom, as a deemed bear market low would already be a lot closer than most believe.
Do I believe that happens? No. We are still at 89k. And the 25% spot selling at 125k was just a form of routine practice I do every cycle.
Not every time is worth getting ultra bearish in them. Many on Square will do it to seem smart. I personally aim to set myself up each time for maximized gains and minimized losses instead.
That's how I framed to close lots of leverage 125k, get long again 80-85k.
Considering move by move on every timeframe (and separating timeframes).
Trading and investing in a nutshell.

.
Comes down to one very simple sentence: establish the bias we are in right now first (confirm if right or frame doubt if maybe wrong using sentiment), then find a trade based on that.
You see faults and cracks of avoiding this absolutely foundational rule all the time. Especially now, but also during the 80-85k range as we saw.
People calling for the bear market back in the 80-85k range, people still shorting this breakout and powerful high volume green now.
They are faults because succesful trading/investing comes down to knowing (anticipating) the bias in present time.
That's it. Right now, not sometime in the future, not in the past (in hindsight). What matters is now and the very mext move.
The very next move from the 80-85k range was not down (and so, it made absolutely no sense to call for a bear market even if true right there, because the timing was off). The right post wasn't "the bear market started". That is lazy and complacent. Anyone who read the market deeply and put in the hours, knew the right call was "another bottom just formed, we'll see later where it ends"
And so the bias was up, not down. And that is all that mattered.
Even if you call for a bearish retest. Well then, you have a bullish bias until complete, don't you?
Shorting before a bearish retest gets you rekt, as we have been seeing over and over.
So how do you get the right bias?
You must at all times know four things:
1️⃣Are we in a range?
If yes: bias = range
2️⃣Which way will it break
3️⃣Will it break soon? When will it break? (And will we start trending)
4️⃣If in a trend, when will it end?
Knowing these four, and you will know exactly when to trade the range (if 1️⃣ = yes and 3️⃣= no), when to trade the trend (if 3️⃣= yes and 2️⃣= known) and when the trend will end again (4️⃣).
That's all it takes to know the bias (range, trend up, trend down, yes, there are 3 biases, not 2)
We're seeing so much ignorance. Good low timeframe traders eating loss after loss because they found good entries in the range but their trades get chewed up now that we are in an uptrend (right after we entered our high timeframe long about 1 month ago at 85.2k).
And so they didn't see the uptrend coming.
We're still seeing those same faults occur. Continued shorts being rekt or selling being regretted.
Research bias first. Then research your entry.
And of course to find the right bias, use the right metrics and tools.
Wont disclose how right now nor here.
But what I just wrote, is the framework. Even the framework isn't understood on X right now.
And it never has been.
Research bias first, entry second. Not the other way around.

Binance Junior is an innovative solution designed by Binance to allow children and teenagers (ages 6 to 17) to explore digital finance and cryptocurrencies in a secure, educational, and fully parent-controlled environment.
Contrary to common misconceptions, Binance Junior is not a trading tool, but a savings and financial learning account.
🎯 Goals of Binance Junior
✅ Early financial education
Young users learn the fundamentals of digital finance and cryptocurrency without exposure to risky products.