🟠 THE BITCOIN BOTTOM DEBATE AGAIN: IS $40K REALLY POSSIBLE?
I want to share how I’m personally looking at the $40K area (give or take $5K) as a potential bottom for this bear phase.
This isn’t a strong call or a bold prediction — just a scenario based on on-chain behavior that’s worth keeping an eye on.
One metric I consistently track for long-term market turns is Realized Price, which is basically the average cost basis of all BTC holders.
Historically, Bitcoin has shown a pretty clear habit during bear markets:
price tends to dip below Realized Price before forming a real bottom.
In 2011, BTC traded ~66% below it
In 2015, around 48%
In 2018, about 35%
In 2022, roughly 33%
What stands out is that each cycle, the downside deviation has been getting smaller.
That leads to the obvious question:
does Bitcoin repeat this pattern again in 2026?
Right now, Realized Price sits around $56K, and during downtrends it usually drifts lower over time, rather than staying flat.
If we mirror the 2022 setup (around 33% below Realized Price), a theoretical bottom would come in near $37–38K.
If Realized Price itself slips toward $53–54K, then the downside could stretch closer to $35K.
That said, volatility keeps compressing every cycle. Bitcoin simply doesn’t swing as wildly as it used to. Because of that, I’m leaning toward a shallower dip this time, something closer to 24%–31% below Realized Price.
That lines up pretty well with a $40K–$43K zone.
🎯 How I’m treating this
Instead of trying to nail an exact bottom, I’m watching $35K–$45K as a reaction zone.
If price gets there, what matters most is how the market behaves, not the number itself.
No certainty.
No predictions.
Just probabilities — and patience.
