Ann Vibes
Catch the market vibe, live the crypto vibe 🎶🎵
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BNB Holder
High-Frequency Trader
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🟠 THE BITCOIN BOTTOM DEBATE AGAIN: IS $40K REALLY POSSIBLE?
I want to share how I’m personally looking at the $40K area (give or take $5K) as a potential bottom for this bear phase.
This isn’t a strong call or a bold prediction — just a scenario based on on-chain behavior that’s worth keeping an eye on.
One metric I consistently track for long-term market turns is Realized Price, which is basically the average cost basis of all BTC holders.
Historically, Bitcoin has shown a pretty clear habit during bear markets:
price tends to dip below Realized Price before forming a real bottom.
In 2011, BTC traded ~66% below it
In 2015, around 48%
In 2018, about 35%
In 2022, roughly 33%
What stands out is that each cycle, the downside deviation has been getting smaller.
That leads to the obvious question:
does Bitcoin repeat this pattern again in 2026?
Right now, Realized Price sits around $56K, and during downtrends it usually drifts lower over time, rather than staying flat.
If we mirror the 2022 setup (around 33% below Realized Price), a theoretical bottom would come in near $37–38K.
If Realized Price itself slips toward $53–54K, then the downside could stretch closer to $35K.
That said, volatility keeps compressing every cycle. Bitcoin simply doesn’t swing as wildly as it used to. Because of that, I’m leaning toward a shallower dip this time, something closer to 24%–31% below Realized Price.
That lines up pretty well with a $40K–$43K zone.
🎯 How I’m treating this
Instead of trying to nail an exact bottom, I’m watching $35K–$45K as a reaction zone.
If price gets there, what matters most is how the market behaves, not the number itself.
No certainty.
No predictions.
Just probabilities — and patience.
$BTC $BNB
I want to share how I’m personally looking at the $40K area (give or take $5K) as a potential bottom for this bear phase.
This isn’t a strong call or a bold prediction — just a scenario based on on-chain behavior that’s worth keeping an eye on.
One metric I consistently track for long-term market turns is Realized Price, which is basically the average cost basis of all BTC holders.
Historically, Bitcoin has shown a pretty clear habit during bear markets:
price tends to dip below Realized Price before forming a real bottom.
In 2011, BTC traded ~66% below it
In 2015, around 48%
In 2018, about 35%
In 2022, roughly 33%
What stands out is that each cycle, the downside deviation has been getting smaller.
That leads to the obvious question:
does Bitcoin repeat this pattern again in 2026?
Right now, Realized Price sits around $56K, and during downtrends it usually drifts lower over time, rather than staying flat.
If we mirror the 2022 setup (around 33% below Realized Price), a theoretical bottom would come in near $37–38K.
If Realized Price itself slips toward $53–54K, then the downside could stretch closer to $35K.
That said, volatility keeps compressing every cycle. Bitcoin simply doesn’t swing as wildly as it used to. Because of that, I’m leaning toward a shallower dip this time, something closer to 24%–31% below Realized Price.
That lines up pretty well with a $40K–$43K zone.
🎯 How I’m treating this
Instead of trying to nail an exact bottom, I’m watching $35K–$45K as a reaction zone.
If price gets there, what matters most is how the market behaves, not the number itself.
No certainty.
No predictions.
Just probabilities — and patience.
$BTC $BNB
$HEI just broke out of the base — momentum finally waking up 👀
LONG $HEI (breakout continuation)
Entry: 0.128 – 0.131
SL: 0.120
TP1: 0.145
TP2: 0.155
After a long period of tight compression around the EMA cluster, HEI flushed liquidity to 0.105 and snapped back hard. Price reclaimed EMA34/89 with strong expansion volume, RSI pushing back into bullish territory, and MACD flipping positive — this looks like acceptance above the range, not a fake pump.
Trade $HEI here 👇
LONG $HEI (breakout continuation)
Entry: 0.128 – 0.131
SL: 0.120
TP1: 0.145
TP2: 0.155
After a long period of tight compression around the EMA cluster, HEI flushed liquidity to 0.105 and snapped back hard. Price reclaimed EMA34/89 with strong expansion volume, RSI pushing back into bullish territory, and MACD flipping positive — this looks like acceptance above the range, not a fake pump.
Trade $HEI here 👇
$AXS | $BIO update
This is why I trust my setups.
Entry respected, structure held, expansion followed.
AXS moving perfectly according to plan — another solid R in the bag.
Full TP ✅✅✅
This is why I trust my setups.
Entry respected, structure held, expansion followed.
AXS moving perfectly according to plan — another solid R in the bag.
Full TP ✅✅✅
$AXS is cooling off after a strong impulse and now pulling back into key EMAs.
LONG $AXS
Entry: 1.72 – 1.8
SL: 1.6
TP1: 1.95
TP2: 2.20
TP3: 2.40
After the explosive move from sub-$1 to $2.2, price is digesting gains rather than dumping. The pullback is shallow, volume is fading, and structure remains intact above EMA89. Momentum has reset, RSI is holding mid-range, and sellers are losing control.
Trade $AXS here 👇 📈🧠
{future}(AXSUSDT)
LONG $AXS
Entry: 1.72 – 1.8
SL: 1.6
TP1: 1.95
TP2: 2.20
TP3: 2.40
After the explosive move from sub-$1 to $2.2, price is digesting gains rather than dumping. The pullback is shallow, volume is fading, and structure remains intact above EMA89. Momentum has reset, RSI is holding mid-range, and sellers are losing control.
Trade $AXS here 👇 📈🧠
{future}(AXSUSDT)
Incredible, super-fast deal! 🎊🎊🎊
$SHELL
$SHELL
$SHELL just made a clean impulse and is now cooling off — looking like a healthy pullback, not a top.
🟢 LONG $SHELL
Entry: 0.0525 – 0.0540
SL: 0.0495
TP1: 0.0580
TP2: 0.0620
Price broke out strongly, swept liquidity, then pulled back into the EMA cluster (EMA34/89/200) with volume fading. RSI reset back to neutral and MACD momentum is compressing — classic continuation setup after expansion.
Trade $SHELL here 👇
{future}(SHELLUSDT)
🟢 LONG $SHELL
Entry: 0.0525 – 0.0540
SL: 0.0495
TP1: 0.0580
TP2: 0.0620
Price broke out strongly, swept liquidity, then pulled back into the EMA cluster (EMA34/89/200) with volume fading. RSI reset back to neutral and MACD momentum is compressing — classic continuation setup after expansion.
Trade $SHELL here 👇
{future}(SHELLUSDT)
$SHELL just made a clean impulse and is now cooling off — looking like a healthy pullback, not a top.
🟢 LONG $SHELL
Entry: 0.0525 – 0.0540
SL: 0.0495
TP1: 0.0580
TP2: 0.0620
Price broke out strongly, swept liquidity, then pulled back into the EMA cluster (EMA34/89/200) with volume fading. RSI reset back to neutral and MACD momentum is compressing — classic continuation setup after expansion.
Trade $SHELL here 👇
🟢 LONG $SHELL
Entry: 0.0525 – 0.0540
SL: 0.0495
TP1: 0.0580
TP2: 0.0620
Price broke out strongly, swept liquidity, then pulled back into the EMA cluster (EMA34/89/200) with volume fading. RSI reset back to neutral and MACD momentum is compressing — classic continuation setup after expansion.
Trade $SHELL here 👇
The market is bleeding, but now is not the time to cry. This is precisely the time for us to implement the DCA method to buy $BNB 💵
WHERE DO YOU THINK WE ARE IN THIS CYCLE? 👀
Zoom out. Look at the cycle map.
Now look at your PnL — that’s where we really are.
If this framework is right, Phase 3 – Wealth Distribution
(easy money, memecoin mania) ended around Jan 2025.
The “buy anything and win” era is long gone.
What we’ve seen since then:
👉 Choppy, directionless price action
👉 Good news gets sold
👉 Bad news breaks levels
👉 Accounts bleed slowly, not explode
📉 This looks like late Phase 4 – Wealth Destruction,
possibly sliding into Phase 5 – Lull.
Not a crash.
Not a bull run.
Just slow, grinding, capital-eroding chop.
Most alts?
Dead money.
🟠 $BTC and 🟡 $BNB are different.
• BTC stays the core — liquidity leaves last and returns first
• BNB has real demand tied to the largest exchange ecosystem
While many chase narratives or revenge-trade memes,
smart money is focused on two things:
1️⃣ Survival
2️⃣ Slow positioning in cycle leaders
❌ This is not the phase to get rich fast.
It’s the phase to stay alive.
Because the worst feeling in crypto isn’t missing a pump —
👉 it’s getting wiped out right before the next cycle starts.
🧲 So tell me this:
Which phase do you think we’re in right now —
and what are you actually doing to survive it? 👇
Zoom out. Look at the cycle map.
Now look at your PnL — that’s where we really are.
If this framework is right, Phase 3 – Wealth Distribution
(easy money, memecoin mania) ended around Jan 2025.
The “buy anything and win” era is long gone.
What we’ve seen since then:
👉 Choppy, directionless price action
👉 Good news gets sold
👉 Bad news breaks levels
👉 Accounts bleed slowly, not explode
📉 This looks like late Phase 4 – Wealth Destruction,
possibly sliding into Phase 5 – Lull.
Not a crash.
Not a bull run.
Just slow, grinding, capital-eroding chop.
Most alts?
Dead money.
🟠 $BTC and 🟡 $BNB are different.
• BTC stays the core — liquidity leaves last and returns first
• BNB has real demand tied to the largest exchange ecosystem
While many chase narratives or revenge-trade memes,
smart money is focused on two things:
1️⃣ Survival
2️⃣ Slow positioning in cycle leaders
❌ This is not the phase to get rich fast.
It’s the phase to stay alive.
Because the worst feeling in crypto isn’t missing a pump —
👉 it’s getting wiped out right before the next cycle starts.
🧲 So tell me this:
Which phase do you think we’re in right now —
and what are you actually doing to survive it? 👇
$ETH looks stretched to the downside — sellers are losing momentum near higher-TF support 🧠📉
LONG $ETH
Entry: 3,050 – 3,100
SL: 2,980
TP1: 3,180
TP2: 3,240
ETH just flushed into the EMA200/EMA610 zone after a strong down move. RSI is deeply oversold, MACD is flattening, and sell volume is no longer expanding — classic signs of exhaustion. Price is slowing down instead of accelerating lower, which opens the door for a relief bounce.
Trade $ETH here 👇
LONG $ETH
Entry: 3,050 – 3,100
SL: 2,980
TP1: 3,180
TP2: 3,240
ETH just flushed into the EMA200/EMA610 zone after a strong down move. RSI is deeply oversold, MACD is flattening, and sell volume is no longer expanding — classic signs of exhaustion. Price is slowing down instead of accelerating lower, which opens the door for a relief bounce.
Trade $ETH here 👇
$BIO is holding its ground after the spike — consolidation above key EMAs looks constructive 🧠📈
LONG $BIO
Entry: 0.0450 – 0.0460
SL: 0.0433
TP1: 0.0488
TP2: 0.0525
TP3: 0.056+
Price is grinding above EMA34/89/200 with no aggressive sell pressure. The dump was absorbed quickly and structure is forming higher lows inside the range. RSI is neutral with room to expand, MACD turning up, and volume has cooled — typical pause before continuation.
Trade $BIO here 👇
LONG $BIO
Entry: 0.0450 – 0.0460
SL: 0.0433
TP1: 0.0488
TP2: 0.0525
TP3: 0.056+
Price is grinding above EMA34/89/200 with no aggressive sell pressure. The dump was absorbed quickly and structure is forming higher lows inside the range. RSI is neutral with room to expand, MACD turning up, and volume has cooled — typical pause before continuation.
Trade $BIO here 👇
$BTC just took a clean dump into local demand — watching for a bounce long, not calling a reversal 🧠📉➡️📈
LONG $BTC
Entry: 90.7k – 91.2k
SL: 89.9k
TP1: 92.4k
TP2: 93.8k
Price flushed into prior demand with RSI stretched and sell pressure starting to slow. Momentum is compressed after the impulse down, suggesting a relief bounce back toward EMA resistance. This is a mean-reversion play, not a trend flip — trade it fast, manage it tighter.
Trade $BTC here 👇📈
LONG $BTC
Entry: 90.7k – 91.2k
SL: 89.9k
TP1: 92.4k
TP2: 93.8k
Price flushed into prior demand with RSI stretched and sell pressure starting to slow. Momentum is compressed after the impulse down, suggesting a relief bounce back toward EMA resistance. This is a mean-reversion play, not a trend flip — trade it fast, manage it tighter.
Trade $BTC here 👇📈
$SUI just flushed hard — now looking for a reactive long, not a trend reversal 🧠📉
🟢 LONG $SUI
Entry: 1.52 – 1.55
SL: 1.5
TP1: 1.58
TP2: 1.62
After the sharp sell-off, price is stabilizing above the dump low with selling pressure cooling off. RSI is recovering from oversold and momentum is starting to compress, suggesting a potential short-term bounce. This is a counter-trend play, targeting a relief move back into the first supply zone.
Trade $SUI here 👇📈
🟢 LONG $SUI
Entry: 1.52 – 1.55
SL: 1.5
TP1: 1.58
TP2: 1.62
After the sharp sell-off, price is stabilizing above the dump low with selling pressure cooling off. RSI is recovering from oversold and momentum is starting to compress, suggesting a potential short-term bounce. This is a counter-trend play, targeting a relief move back into the first supply zone.
Trade $SUI here 👇📈
$GUN is grinding sideways after a sharp expansion — looks like classic post-pump compression.
🟢 LONG $GUN
Entry: 0.0248 – 0.0256
SL: 0.0236
TP1: 0.0270
TP2: 0.0300
TP3: 0.0320
After the impulsive move to ~0.036, price didn’t dump — it bled time instead. Volume has dried up, sellers failed to push below EMA200, and price is now reclaiming short-term EMAs. RSI is stabilizing around mid-range while MACD is trying to curl up.
Trade $GUN here 👇 📈🧠
🟢 LONG $GUN
Entry: 0.0248 – 0.0256
SL: 0.0236
TP1: 0.0270
TP2: 0.0300
TP3: 0.0320
After the impulsive move to ~0.036, price didn’t dump — it bled time instead. Volume has dried up, sellers failed to push below EMA200, and price is now reclaiming short-term EMAs. RSI is stabilizing around mid-range while MACD is trying to curl up.
Trade $GUN here 👇 📈🧠
$POWER update
HIT TP 1 ✅
The signal is progressing a bit slowly, but it's still going according to plan. 🎊
HIT TP 1 ✅
The signal is progressing a bit slowly, but it's still going according to plan. 🎊
$POWER just reclaimed the range — momentum is starting to lean bullish again.
LONG $POWER 📈
Entry: 0.165 – 0.170
SL: 0.156
TP1: 0.178
TP2: 0.195
That sharp sweep to the lows got absorbed fast, price reclaimed the EMA zone, and RSI is pushing higher. Sellers failed to follow through after the flush, and this move looks more like continuation than a dead-cat bounce.
Trade POWER here 👇
{future}(POWERUSDT)
LONG $POWER 📈
Entry: 0.165 – 0.170
SL: 0.156
TP1: 0.178
TP2: 0.195
That sharp sweep to the lows got absorbed fast, price reclaimed the EMA zone, and RSI is pushing higher. Sellers failed to follow through after the flush, and this move looks more like continuation than a dead-cat bounce.
Trade POWER here 👇
{future}(POWERUSDT)
$AXS & $BERA update — same story 📈
Clean EMA pullback, entry as planned, price doing the rest.
Both trades moving exactly how I mapped it out.
Risk defined, patience paid, R stacking quietly 💰
Good profit today 🎊🎊🎊
Clean EMA pullback, entry as planned, price doing the rest.
Both trades moving exactly how I mapped it out.
Risk defined, patience paid, R stacking quietly 💰
Good profit today 🎊🎊🎊
$AXS is cooling off after a strong impulse and now pulling back into key EMAs.
LONG $AXS
Entry: 1.72 – 1.8
SL: 1.6
TP1: 1.95
TP2: 2.20
TP3: 2.40
After the explosive move from sub-$1 to $2.2, price is digesting gains rather than dumping. The pullback is shallow, volume is fading, and structure remains intact above EMA89. Momentum has reset, RSI is holding mid-range, and sellers are losing control.
Trade $AXS here 👇 📈🧠
LONG $AXS
Entry: 1.72 – 1.8
SL: 1.6
TP1: 1.95
TP2: 2.20
TP3: 2.40
After the explosive move from sub-$1 to $2.2, price is digesting gains rather than dumping. The pullback is shallow, volume is fading, and structure remains intact above EMA89. Momentum has reset, RSI is holding mid-range, and sellers are losing control.
Trade $AXS here 👇 📈🧠
$USUAL is holding structure after the shakeout — looks like a clean pullback, not a breakdown. 🧠📈
🟢 LONG $USUAL
Entry: 0.0288 – 0.0292
SL: 0.0275
TP1: 0.0303
TP2: 0.0316
TP3: 0.0330 (if momentum expands)
Price swept liquidity down to 0.0238, found real demand, and quickly reclaimed key EMAs. RSI recovered, MACD flipped back up, and volume at the lows suggests absorption rather than distribution.
Trade USUAL here 👇
🟢 LONG $USUAL
Entry: 0.0288 – 0.0292
SL: 0.0275
TP1: 0.0303
TP2: 0.0316
TP3: 0.0330 (if momentum expands)
Price swept liquidity down to 0.0238, found real demand, and quickly reclaimed key EMAs. RSI recovered, MACD flipped back up, and volume at the lows suggests absorption rather than distribution.
Trade USUAL here 👇
I've taken some profit on my $MANA and $BERA positions to start the day off right ✌🏻✌🏻
$MANA is stabilizing after the flush — this looks more like a reset than a breakdown.
LONG $MANA 🟢
Entry: 0.150 – 0.154
SL: 0.145
TP1: 0.160
TP2: 0.168
TP3: 0.178
That sharp dip below support got bought back quickly, price is holding the EMA zone, and structure hasn’t broken. Momentum is neutral, but sellers aren’t pressing here.
Trade $MANA here 👇
{future}(MANAUSDT)
LONG $MANA 🟢
Entry: 0.150 – 0.154
SL: 0.145
TP1: 0.160
TP2: 0.168
TP3: 0.178
That sharp dip below support got bought back quickly, price is holding the EMA zone, and structure hasn’t broken. Momentum is neutral, but sellers aren’t pressing here.
Trade $MANA here 👇
{future}(MANAUSDT)
$COTI just woke up — strong reaction off the lows, momentum back in play.
LONG $COTI 🟢
Entry: 0.0212 – 0.0218
SL: 0.0198
TP1: 0.0230
TP2: 0.0244
Sharp sell-off got fully absorbed, followed by a clean reclaim of the EMA cluster on 1H. Volume expansion on the bounce, RSI reset without breaking structure.
LONG $COTI 🟢
Entry: 0.0212 – 0.0218
SL: 0.0198
TP1: 0.0230
TP2: 0.0244
Sharp sell-off got fully absorbed, followed by a clean reclaim of the EMA cluster on 1H. Volume expansion on the bounce, RSI reset without breaking structure.
$BERA is holding trend cleanly — consolidation above EMAs, not distribution.
LONG $BERA 📈
Entry: 0.88 – 0.91
SL: 0.82
TP1: 0.98
TP2: 1.05
Price is respecting the EMA cluster on 1H, higher lows remain intact, and pullbacks keep getting bought. Momentum cooled off after the push to 1.03, but structure stays bullish and sellers can’t force a breakdown.
LONG $BERA 📈
Entry: 0.88 – 0.91
SL: 0.82
TP1: 0.98
TP2: 1.05
Price is respecting the EMA cluster on 1H, higher lows remain intact, and pullbacks keep getting bought. Momentum cooled off after the push to 1.03, but structure stays bullish and sellers can’t force a breakdown.
$ARIA update:
ARIA is running near TP1 point ✅
Signal is looking good. Take your profits and move your stop loss up to the entry point so I can follow the new signal.
ARIA is running near TP1 point ✅
Signal is looking good. Take your profits and move your stop loss up to the entry point so I can follow the new signal.
$ARIA is basing quietly after a deep sweep — looks like absorption, not weakness 💡
LONG $ARIA 🟢
Entry: 0.090 – 0.093
SL: 0.085
TP1: 0.098
TP2: 0.105
After the sharp liquidity grab to ~0.078, price snapped back and is now holding above the EMA cluster. Momentum is stabilizing, RSI grinding higher, and selling pressure keeps fading.
{future}(ARIAUSDT)
LONG $ARIA 🟢
Entry: 0.090 – 0.093
SL: 0.085
TP1: 0.098
TP2: 0.105
After the sharp liquidity grab to ~0.078, price snapped back and is now holding above the EMA cluster. Momentum is stabilizing, RSI grinding higher, and selling pressure keeps fading.
{future}(ARIAUSDT)
WHERE DO YOU THINK WE ARE IN THIS CYCLE? 👀
Zoom out. Look at the cycle map.
Now look at your PnL — that’s where we really are.
If this framework is right, Phase 3 – Wealth Distribution
(easy money, memecoin mania) ended around Jan 2025.
The “buy anything and win” era is long gone.
What we’ve seen since then:
👉 Choppy, directionless price action
👉 Good news gets sold
👉 Bad news breaks levels
👉 Accounts bleed slowly, not explode
📉 This looks like late Phase 4 – Wealth Destruction,
possibly sliding into Phase 5 – Lull.
Not a crash.
Not a bull run.
Just slow, grinding, capital-eroding chop.
Most alts?
Dead money.
🟠 $BTC and 🟡 $BNB are different.
• BTC stays the core — liquidity leaves last and returns first
• BNB has real demand tied to the largest exchange ecosystem
While many chase narratives or revenge-trade memes,
smart money is focused on two things:
1️⃣ Survival
2️⃣ Slow positioning in cycle leaders
❌ This is not the phase to get rich fast.
It’s the phase to stay alive.
Because the worst feeling in crypto isn’t missing a pump —
👉 it’s getting wiped out right before the next cycle starts.
🧲 So tell me this:
Which phase do you think we’re in right now —
and what are you actually doing to survive it? 👇
Zoom out. Look at the cycle map.
Now look at your PnL — that’s where we really are.
If this framework is right, Phase 3 – Wealth Distribution
(easy money, memecoin mania) ended around Jan 2025.
The “buy anything and win” era is long gone.
What we’ve seen since then:
👉 Choppy, directionless price action
👉 Good news gets sold
👉 Bad news breaks levels
👉 Accounts bleed slowly, not explode
📉 This looks like late Phase 4 – Wealth Destruction,
possibly sliding into Phase 5 – Lull.
Not a crash.
Not a bull run.
Just slow, grinding, capital-eroding chop.
Most alts?
Dead money.
🟠 $BTC and 🟡 $BNB are different.
• BTC stays the core — liquidity leaves last and returns first
• BNB has real demand tied to the largest exchange ecosystem
While many chase narratives or revenge-trade memes,
smart money is focused on two things:
1️⃣ Survival
2️⃣ Slow positioning in cycle leaders
❌ This is not the phase to get rich fast.
It’s the phase to stay alive.
Because the worst feeling in crypto isn’t missing a pump —
👉 it’s getting wiped out right before the next cycle starts.
🧲 So tell me this:
Which phase do you think we’re in right now —
and what are you actually doing to survive it? 👇
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