📌Core Signal
1. Short-term Trend of Bitcoin
Current Price: $89,199.7 (↓1.93%)
Market Structure: The price is in a correction phase, with a 7-day drop of 6.14%. Both the spot and futures market trading volumes are in a 'cooling' state, indicating weakened market momentum and increased wait-and-see sentiment.
Liquidation Warning: The key resistance level above is at the psychological barrier of $90,500, while short-term support is around $87,500. A significant drop below this level may trigger a new round of selling.
Liquidation Overview: The price has fallen in the past 24 hours, possibly triggering liquidations for some leveraged long positions, exacerbating short-term downward pressure.
2. Operation Window
Mixed signals: Prices are falling, but the 90-day CVD indicator shows 'buying dominance' in both spot and futures markets, indicating that large players are still accumulating on dips. However, be cautious as this may be a trap during a short-term downturn.
Support zone reference: Pay attention to the first support area around $88,000; if it fails, it will test the mid-term support strength at $85,500.
Funding divergence: The funding rate surged by 47.8% to 0.007355 within 24 hours, while prices and open interest are declining, forming a clear top divergence. This indicates that leveraged long sentiment is overheated and disconnected from spot trends, making it a target for short attacks, increasing long-term squeeze risk.
3. Macro Risks
Safe-haven sentiment and inflation pressure: Gold prices have broken historical highs, and silver has also reached high levels, reflecting extreme safe-haven sentiment in the market, but this sentiment has not extended to crypto assets. UK inflation data is above expectations, which may delay interest rate cuts by the Bank of England, posing risks to risk assets.
Geopolitical risks escalate: The Greenland dispute and tensions in US-EU trade relations, along with the EU's push for protectionism, are suppressing global risk appetite.
Monetary policy uncertainty: There are divisions over the nomination of the Federal Reserve chair, and turmoil in the Japanese bond market is exacerbating liquidity risks. These factors increase market uncertainty.
⚠ Must Monitor Events
[1.28-1.29] Federal Reserve FOMC meeting → Will set the tone for global capital markets and the future direction of BTC.
[1.30 21:30] US December Core PCE Price Index → Key inflation data that directly impacts Federal Reserve interest rate expectations.
🚀 Minimal Strategy Pool
Radical:
Current market conditions do not favor long or short positions. One can wait for prices to test support levels, and if a stabilization rebound signal appears, consider cautiously testing short positions.
Conservative: Suggest waiting on the sidelines. Wait for the funding rate to cool significantly, and consider entering only after a clear bottom structure forms at key support levels (like MA50).
Short sellers: Technical and funding signals are conflicting, and macro conditions are stormy. It is advisable to patiently wait for the FOMC meeting and PCE data release at the end of this month, and make decisions once the market direction is clear.
