Zcash's price has done something significant after several weeks of weakness. Since January 19, ZEC's price has increased by nearly 15%, from a low of around 336 USD to around 362 USD. This movement came just a few days after a confirmed negative trend, which often traps those who are selling aggressively.
The structure still looks uncertain at first glance. But beneath the surface, accumulation is quietly increasing. Now we are focusing on one level. Zcash is about 9% below an important Fib level, which also puts a key EMA in the spotlight. If the price can reclaim this level, it will determine whether the recovery is just a short bounce or if it can become larger, perhaps a rally.
The rise puts the 100-day EMA in focus again
The recovery did not come from nowhere.
When the head-and-shoulders pattern became clear, Zcash's price quickly fell to 336 USD before buyers stepped in to possibly trigger the trap.
After this, the price rose about 15% and stayed just below the 100-day EMA (exponential moving average). An EMA is a trend indicator that weighs recent prices higher.
The last time Zcash crossed its 100-day EMA, on December 3rd, the price rose over 70% in the following weeks. History does not guarantee it will happen again, but it shows why this level is so important now.
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At the same time, sellers are still active near resistance. ZEC has struggled to pass 386 USD, where the price stalled, indicating that the supply remains. Therefore, the negative trend still persists. The question is whether the buying under the surface is strong enough to reclaim the level.
That answer starts with those who have bought since January 19.
Whales buy more when the strength of buying on the dip increases
On-chain data shows accumulation where it is often most important.
Over the past seven days, mega-whales (the 100 largest addresses) have increased their ZEC holdings by about 9%, raising balances to about 42,623 ZEC. This means they added nearly 3,500 ZEC during this recovery period.
Regular wallet holders have followed suit. The holdings for this group increased by about 5% to around 10,182 ZEC. This means they accumulated an additional 480 ZEC during the same period.
Together, whales have added about 4,000 ZEC since January 19. This is not buying at peak levels. Instead, it is accumulation after a confirmed price drop, with the expectation that the price will become stronger. Smart capital, however, has sold everything, indicating low expectations for an upward movement in the short term.
Momentum indicators support this view. Between January 14 and 24, ZEC's price fell, but the Money Flow Index rose, creating a positive divergence.
MFI measures buying and selling pressure with both price and volume and can indicate dip buying. When the price falls and MFI rises, it signals buying under the surface. This pattern often protects against larger declines.
Derivatives provide an extra dimension. After the recent movement, leverage has been restored and has become mostly balanced. In the next 30 days on Binance ZEC perpetuals, forced liquidations on the short side are still slightly higher, 26.37 million USD against 22 million USD on the long side.
This imbalance means that the price does not need to completely reverse to rise. Even a small uptick can force the short side to buy back.
All of this points to the same thing. Accumulation is there.
Zcash price levels that confirm or dismiss the bear trap
The structures are now simple.
On the downside, the trap fails if ZEC loses 335–336 USD at a daily close. If the price goes below that level, the negative pattern continues, and the risk of a larger decline increases.
On the upside, it is important to test the area near 386–395 USD (0.236 Fib level), about 9% from the current level. That area aligns with the 100-day EMA. A daily close above that level resembles the recovery in December and clearly weakens the negative pattern.
If the recovery occurs, the next important level is near 463 USD, where there was previously a lot of supply and liquidations. If the price goes above that level, the entire right shoulder of the head-and-shoulders pattern is invalidated. Above 557 USD, the entire broad negative scenario falls apart.
Until one of these levels is broken, Zcash's price remains in a narrow decision zone.
The conclusion is simple. ZEC has already recovered 15%, large investors buy when the price is weak, and buying pressure during declines is clearly visible. The price is now only 9% from the level that has historically led to larger movements.
