Filecoin's computing power has plummeted, entering a death spiral! The FIL price will only continue to drop, unless the following four turning points occur!
On January 23, 2026, FIL data for 43 days: Filecoin's total network computing power fell below 19EiB, a decrease of 1363PiB, setting a historical low! The total number of nodes fell below 1,000; the circulation increased by 410,000 per day, with a large amount of computing power prematurely terminating sector releases, over 10 million FIL flowing into the market, causing selling pressure!
In fact, from October 30, 2025, to December 11, 2025, during the 41 days: Filecoin's total network computing power fell below 20EiB, a decrease of 1907PiB.
In other words, over the past 84 days, Filecoin's computing power has decreased by 3270PiB, and the actual physical storage space has reduced to 2.26EiB.
The price of FIL continues to be sluggish and will last for a considerable time, as many computing powers will continue to expire without renewal. Many will prompt the termination of sector pledge retrieval. The core reason here is that the price of Filecoin remains low, falling below storage costs (triggering the mining shutdown price), causing storage providers to operate at a loss and be forced to terminate computing power. Consequently, computing power continues to decline, making it difficult for the ecosystem to thrive, with no use cases or pledge demands. The chips flowing into the market are increasing, and the prices are falling further! This forms a vicious cycle! It's also called a spiral deadlock! (From 2020 to 2022, the most critical factor for the price increase was the demand for large amounts of FIL for cold storage mining, and the circulating chips in the market were very few, leading to a supply-demand imbalance. Now, however, the demand scenarios and chips have completely reversed.)
Some say that the on-chain storage FOC launched by Filecoin in 2025, along with other hot storage options, may increase usage scenarios and demand for FIL, saving the price of Filecoin? In reality, the usage is very minimal, mostly by a few working groups derived from several protocol laboratories, or occasionally some unknown projects. There has been no mention on the sidelines or large Web3 platforms! At least this is the case for now. Indeed, this is a breakthrough point (turning point) for saving FIL, but there has been no progress so far.
Another breakthrough point (turning point) is that the Filecoin Foundation (referred to as FF) either drives the market or invites a professional market value management team to enter. However, FF is constrained by various regulations, claiming that U.S. laws limit them, which is an outdated mindset that self-restricts. They spend tens of millions of dollars every year on futile activities, without truly using the funds effectively. A lot of money has been spent (which is the hard-earned money of Filecoin builders) because FF needs to sell FIL for cash, which leads to downward pressure on prices, and when they do that, the price falls sharply. The price of FIL continues to decline, which is entirely caused by the wrong decision-making direction of FF!
Another turning point is that super strong players are entering the market to drive up prices. Currently, there are 818 million FIL circulating chips, and a considerable amount of capital is needed for operations, with many waiting to sell. For example, after several price increases, there was a rapid decline, showing a direct V-shaped trend, indicating that the market selling pressure is extremely high.
The best turning point is for FF to cooperate with super strong players to drive the market together. (Insider information: There was once a trading team that approached Juan, requesting the protocol laboratory to lock up chips and reduce circulation, then drive the market, but Juan rejected it.)
The final turning point is the global storage crisis, where centralized storage is facing massive destruction. Everyone is using Filecoin for storage; otherwise, with traditional storage providers like Amazon Cloud and Alibaba Cloud being mature, stable, and having complete after-sales support, no one would take the risk to use Filecoin for storage because it's difficult to use, not effective, and unnecessary (if Filecoin data is not sufficiently backed up and only exists in one data center, it can be deleted or lost due to faults, making it unreliable. It is essentially pseudo-decentralized storage).
In short, Filecoin's computing power is declining sharply, with a large amount of pledges flowing into the market. The floating chips of FIL circulation are increasing, inflation is continuously rising, and with supply exceeding demand, prices will continue to fall! At least for now, no progress can be seen! Unless any of the above scenarios show a turning point! Bet willingly and accept the outcome, no regrets!
The above are objective facts for reference only!#fil $FIL #Filecoin n filecoin #ipfs ipfs fil
