The XRP price is at a dangerous level. The price is around $1.89. XRP is only 1% above a key support level. On the surface, the chart looks calm. But several signals indicate that risks are increasing. What is unusual now is not only the proximity to the support but also what did not happen earlier.

XRP recently showed a positive signal that usually leads to a short-term rise. This time, the price barely moved at all. That is the real warning sign.

Hidden Bullish Divergence failed — is it a warning sign?

Between December 31 and January 20, the XRP price showed a hidden positive divergence on the daily chart. The price made a higher low while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) showed a lower low.

A hidden positive divergence usually means that selling pressure is decreasing. Buyers can then take over. It does not guarantee an increase, but often the price rises or experiences a period of upward relief.

It did not happen this time.

After the divergence appeared, XRP barely rose at all. The price got stuck, and the movement never gained momentum. This tells us something important. Sellers slowed down, but buyers did not show up and take over.

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This type of failed divergence is often seen in weak markets. It indicates uncertainty, not strength. When a positive signal fails, it usually means that demand is lacking, not that the signal was wrong.

The rising XRP wedge still shows that the price could drop by up to 25% if support breaks. Buyers are missing while sellers slowly regain control. XRP is approaching a point where a small decline could trigger a much larger fall.

If buyers do not come in after selling pressure decreases, what happens when sellers return?

ETF flows and ownership data show that demand is decreasing.

The answer starts with capital flows.

For the first time in several weeks, ETF products linked to XRP recorded net outflows. The week ending January 23 saw an outflow of about 40.5 million USD. This is a clear change, as there had previously been steady inflows for a long time.

ETF flows are important as they show large, targeted money. When inflows stop and turn negative, it often indicates that institutional investors are pausing or pulling back.

Data from the blockchain shows the same pattern.

The Hodler Net Position Change value measures the change in long-term XRP holders' monthly balance. The result has flattened out and started to decline. On January 20, long-term holders had around 232.1 million XRP. On January 24, they had about 231.55 million XRP.

It's not about big selling, but it's not accumulation either. After the divergence, long-term holders did not clearly increase their holdings. This confirms what the price development already showed. Buyers did not feel secure enough to invest.

When ETF demand stalls and long-term holders hesitate at the same time, it becomes difficult for the price to recover.

Large investors are selling – the risk of a price drop in XRP remains.

While buyers hesitated, one group acted.

Wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million XRP started to sell off. On January 18, that group had around 11.16 billion XRP. At the latest measurement, they had about 11.07 billion XRP.

This is a decrease of about 90 million XRP. At the current XRP price, that is approximately 170 million USD in distribution.

This selling pressure also explains why XRP did not react to the hidden positive divergence. It also explains why the price remains close to support. From a technical perspective, the risk is now clear.

If XRP closes below 1.85–1.86 USD per day, it breaks the support in the wedge and activates the downward target. It opens the way first to the area around 1.70 USD, and if momentum increases, the price can fall further towards 1.42 USD. This is close to the target for a decline of almost 25%.

On the upside, XRP must reclaim 1.98 USD to dampen the negative pressure. This could provide short-term relief, but if buyers do not return, it is likely just a temporary rise with no trend change. Right now, the imbalance is clear. Sellers are present. Buyers are missing.