The price of Cardano has been repeating the same pattern for several weeks. A short rebound, quick slowdown, and lack of continuation of the upward trend. The last upward move since January 20 yielded about 7%, but once again it stopped in the range of 0.35–0.37 USD. It was not a breakout, but merely a technical rebound.
The first problem is the nature of the technical signal itself. The rebound was triggered by a weak, hidden bullish divergence on the 12-hour timeframe. Although the RSI signaled a decrease in selling pressure, it did not show a real takeover by buyers. Such divergences historically lead more to short corrective moves rather than lasting rallies.
The second factor is the behavior of ADA holders. On-chain data shows that every price increase is accompanied by a sharp realization of profits. The 'spent coins' metric clearly rises with each rally, indicating that investors are using increases to sell rather than accumulate tokens. This pattern has consistently repeated since December.
The third key issue is the lack of support from whales. Large wallets are systematically decreasing their ADA balance. These are not panic exits, but a clear lack of demand that could absorb selling pressure. This makes the market susceptible to further declines.
Data from the derivatives market only confirms this. Short positions clearly dominate over long ones, indicating that traders are more betting on a breakdown of rallies than on their continuation.
Technically, key levels are clearly defined: – 0.37 USD is the first resistance
– 0.39 USD is a level that could realistically change the dynamics
– 0.42 USD would mean a return to a bullish structure
– 0.34 USD remains a key support level, the loss of which could accelerate declines
As long as there is no return of sustained developer activity, selling pressure will not decrease and whales will not start accumulating ADA again, every Cardano rally remains at risk and susceptible to a quick pullback.
#Cardano #ADA #Crypto #altcoins #Binance $ADA
