RAIN price has risen nearly 40% over the last 30 days. The price is now just under 0.0104 USD, but that is no longer the main focus.
The active breakout structure indicates a new potential peak above 0.0110 USD, which is more than 10% higher than current levels. The upward trend continues, but decreased momentum may lead sellers to return soon when optimism is at its highest.
New price record is the real goal, and sellers are still waiting.
The current inverse head-and-shoulders structure points towards a new record level just over 10% above today's price, near 0.0110 USD. It is around this level, not the old high, that traders are targeting. The consolidation now is not about taking profits on older peaks, but about whether RAIN can take the next step upward.
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Blockchain behavior supports this view. The activity for 'spent coins age band', which shows how many tokens of various holding periods are moving in the chain and often means selling or profit-taking, has plummeted in recent days. Since January 22, this activity has decreased from about 104.8 million to 25.4 million, which is nearly 76% down in just three days.
The sharp decline shows that holders are not moving their tokens despite rising prices, which indicates good short-term behavior. This points to restraint, not distribution. Many are waiting for the price to try to reach the new high before acting. Simply put, sellers have pulled back right now, allowing the rise towards 0.0110 USD to continue. But the silence now also means increased risks.
Why sellers might come back near the estimated ATH
The first warning sign is visible in the structure forming under the original outbreak.
Since the beginning of January, RAIN has continued upwards, and a new inverse head-and-shoulders pattern is beginning to form. The difference from the previous structure is that this one has a steeper rising neckline and a higher right shoulder than the head itself. The shape makes it harder for the rise to hold. Possible increase from this formation is only about 13–14%, and it requires strong momentum to succeed.
Long-term momentum does not confirm strength.
Between January 6 and 22, the RAIN price reached a higher peak, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) made a lower peak. RSI measures price momentum by comparing gains and losses. If the price rises but RSI falls, it shows decreased buying pressure, not strength. This negative RSI divergence is already visible before the ATH attempt and is a clear warning.
Money Flow Index (MFI) strengthens the concern. MFI tracks buying and selling pressure with both price and volume. Between January 6 and 24, the RAIN price moved sideways or slightly upwards, but MFI fell. This shows that interest in buying on dips has weakened, even though sellers have not yet acted.
This explains why the surface looks contradictory. Fewer coins are being moved because sellers are waiting. RSI and MFI are declining as buyers are not purchasing more actively.
Rallies built on sellers holding back – and not on buyers increasing – are fragile. If RAIN reaches the designated ATH area, even small profit-taking (when sellers return) can quickly reverse the trend.
Key price levels for RAIN ahead
RAIN could still reach a new all-time high. No data prevents that yet.
A daily close above 0.0110 USD would confirm a breakout and open up new targets towards 0.0128 USD, mainly thanks to sentiment and momentum.
But the risk is growing rapidly if the market hesitates at this area.
If sellers return and activity with spent coins increases near the expected high, the first level to watch is 0.0099 USD, where the latest structure starts to weaken. Below that level, confidence in the setup decreases.
A breakdown below 0.0082–0.0081 USD causes the new right axis and main structure to lose validity and opens up a decline towards 0.0068 USD, indicating a deeper corrective phase.