Brothers, I am Old Chen! Looking at this market today, my blood pressure has risen——the entire network is shouting to buy the dip, but I must throw a bucket of cold water on you: now is not the time to rush in with your eyes closed, a bigger storm eye is just this week!

A bloody review: Do you think the crash is Trump's fault? Naive!

Do you remember the collective jump off the building a few days ago? ETH dropped from $3400 to around $2800, and the whole network was in a state of despair. Many people blamed Trump's tariff threats, saying this is the prelude to the US-EU trade war.

Old fans know that I had already sounded the alarm for this round of crash! The root cause is simple: the market can't be driven anymore! When the last CPI data came out, Trump led the hype, but anyone with clear eyes knows that data is just 'saturated data' and does not support the Fed to lower interest rates immediately. I have repeatedly emphasized that the probability of a rate cut in the first quarter is extremely low, and without sustained positive topics, all rebounds are just tricks; up it goes and it has to come down. Without tariff issues, the market would still fall, it's just that Trump provided an excuse for accelerated decline!

Current confusion: Is Bitcoin stabilizing at 87000? That's a false illusion of a rally!

Currently, Bitcoin is playing dead around 87000, while Ethereum (ETH) fluctuates around 2850. A crowd of people can't help but feel that the drop has hit the bottom, thinking it's a golden pit.

Wake up! What is the essence of the cryptocurrency market? It's topics, narratives, and speculation! Now I ask you: Where is the new story that supports the violent rebound of the market? Is it that ETF funds have dried up, or has some revolutionary application erupted? Neither! So this so-called 'stabilization' is just water without a source, right?

Critical juncture: Two 'nuclear bombs' are counting down, and the direction is about to strike!

Right now, stop focusing on those minor fluctuations; the real key to survival lies in these two major events right in front of us:

1. Fed 'hawk-dove' judgment night (this Thursday at 3:30 AM)

The interest rate will remain unchanged (probability over 90%), which is of no use.

The real nuclear bomb is Powell's mouth! At the press conference at 3:30 PM, every word will be interpreted under a magnifying glass. If he sends a hawkish signal (emphasizing stubborn inflation and not in a hurry to cut rates), global risk assets will immediately collapse again. If he unexpectedly leans dovish (hinting at possible rate cuts in the future), the market can finally catch its breath. This is the only moment this week where you need to keep your eyes wide open!

2. The specter of the U.S. government 'shutdown' returns (by the end of this month)

That's right, the familiar script is back. The U.S. government is likely to shut down again by the end of this month. But the impact on the cryptocurrency market is not simply 'positive' or 'negative'.

In the short term, the risk aversion triggered by the shutdown and concerns about dollar liquidity may impact all risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

In the long run, the political deadlock may force the Fed to consider easing earlier in the future, which lays the seeds for long-term benefits.

So, don't misinterpret! Before Powell sets the tone, news of the shutdown will only exacerbate market uncertainty and volatility.

Old Chen's ultimate strategy:

Hold your fire and wait for the gunshot! Before the 'hawkish-dovish' signals from the Fed and the government shutdown, any so-called 'bottom fishing' is playing with fire. The real hunter only decisively follows after the market chooses its direction. Remember: It's better to miss out than to make a mistake. Protect your capital and wait for the wind to come!#特朗普取消对欧关税威胁