$BTC Monthly Chart——The Four-Year Cycle is Repeating
I believe the best indicator for understanding Bitcoin's long-term trend is still the four-year cycle theory. It has never failed, not even last year.
For those who are unaware, since 2013, Bitcoin has gone through 3 market cycles, each containing the following phases:
▪️ 2 years of steady growth (the yellow part of the chart)
▪️ 1 year of bull market (the green part of the chart)
▪️ 1 year of bear market (the red part of the chart)
The bull market phase will end after peaking in October 2025. We are currently in the bear market phase, which is expected to last until around October 2026.
If we infer based on the previous cycle, my target price for the bear market in October 2026 is around $50,000.
During this period, before dropping to $50,000, we may consolidate around $80,000 for a while.
This truly is the only indicator that has never let me down. I will update this post in October 2026.
