Since the end of last year, almost all CEX and DEX have adopted Tradfi, rather than continuing to frequently promote new altcoins.
This is a clear signal that major exchanges are not optimistic about the Crypto market in 2026.
The four-year cycle of Bitcoin has always been present; however, there are always some people claiming that the four-year cycle is no longer relevant!
What we need to do now is to embrace change and patiently wait for the next transition from bear to bull cycle, expected by the end of this year~
During this period, please ensure you maintain sufficient cash flow to keep yourself in the game! First, reduce the frequency of operations or refrain from operating!
$BTC Monthly Chart——The Four-Year Cycle is Repeating
I believe the best indicator for understanding Bitcoin's long-term trend is still the four-year cycle theory. It has never failed, not even last year.
For those who are unaware, since 2013, Bitcoin has gone through 3 market cycles, each containing the following phases: ▪️ 2 years of steady growth (the yellow part of the chart) ▪️ 1 year of bull market (the green part of the chart) ▪️ 1 year of bear market (the red part of the chart)
The bull market phase will end after peaking in October 2025. We are currently in the bear market phase, which is expected to last until around October 2026.
If we infer based on the previous cycle, my target price for the bear market in October 2026 is around $50,000.
During this period, before dropping to $50,000, we may consolidate around $80,000 for a while.
This truly is the only indicator that has never let me down. I will update this post in October 2026.
Why do people trading cryptocurrencies need to maintain their credibility in the crypto world?
Here's a real case from my surroundings: In the early days of 2021, I met what was then known to me as a 'crypto big shot' in a certain community. I won't mention names here, but there were also some KOLs and project parties on Twitter who knew him. At that time, I participated in several private placements and secondary cryptocurrencies he promoted, and I made money, which made me think he was really impressive! Later, because I was often active in the community, we gradually became familiar with each other. Then he took me and a few other active group friends to operate several DeFi and GameFi projects together. Two of them were quite successful and got listed on a certain tea 🍵 and a certain coin. That was the first time I made money in our industry through projects, and my understanding of the crypto world improved significantly.
What the fuck, $HANA dog outfit is really fucked up, I lost over a thousand dollars, now it's doubling
Damn, at that time the nominal value of the position was over three thousand dollars, doubling to twenty thousand dollars would have been in hand! Fuck, damn dog dealer.
My journey as a PM has ultimately faced a profit pullback
The highest floating profit was 5X, with a $100 principal earning over $400+, but this profit has pulled back by half in the past two days
Yesterday, I withdrew the principal of $100 and used the profits to continue rolling, to avoid going to zero
Still, as I said, the alpha opportunities in the prediction market far exceed those in the secondary market!
For example, if you believe today that $BTC will rebound to over $90k, you don't necessarily have to go long with a contract, but can instead go long by buying yes in the prediction market for the price prediction of $88K/$90k
Of course, buying yes at $88k is relatively safer, as the price of Bitcoin is already above $88k
It's like having a call option with a strike price lower than the underlying price, which provides a margin of safety and makes it less likely to go to zero, unless at expiration the strike price of the call option is higher than the underlying price, then it would go to zero
Only through personal experience do I realize how difficult it is to walk this path
There are many things to overcome, not only do you need to understand human nature, but in terms of operation, it also requires going against human nature!
For those who truly make a living from trading, I believe they can reach the top position in any industry, they are really strong!
The current situation is difficult. Bitcoin and altcoins have plummeted, and most retail investors have left the market, seemingly resulting in a complete loss of confidence in cryptocurrencies.
The income of most traders, investors, and even content creators will significantly shrink this year. However, in fact, everyone can turn this "setback" into "setup."
Some traders can still profit during a bear market and accumulate substantial wealth when a bull market arrives; content creators can continue to grow and surpass their competitors.
I can assure you that as long as the direction you're taking right now is correct, you will be rewarded in the future and far ahead of others.
This may not be the highest profit or the fastest growth in history, but you will definitely surpass everyone!
Cheer up, family, work hard on the right things, keep repeating, and you will welcome your glorious moment!
emmm I got up half an hour late this morning, and as a result, I had to splash my face with a waterfall, and CEX + DEX totally blew up over 2000 bucks💩
After reviewing, I mainly got wrecked by $HANA and Broccoli F3B, these two trash altcoins blew up my entire position; otherwise, I wouldn't have gotten wrecked, damn it!
I’m fine; I only use fixed capital to play… the profits I made earlier have been transferred to spot and withdrawals; otherwise, this year would be tough 😢
In the future, I’ll give up on these low liquidity trash altcoins; when the price spikes, it’s like diarrhea 💩 with no buying support
Honestly, folks, I'm preparing to exit the contract market; the main site is the prediction market, that’s where I truly belong! Polymarket has currently rolled my initial 100 bucks to 440 bucks!
If your trading skills are poor but you want to trade futures, then you can try Binance's trading bots.
As a five-year veteran in cryptocurrency, surviving in such a high-risk futures market for five years definitely means having one's own trading system! But to be honest, not everyone is suited for futures trading! It's easy to say to stop-loss when the direction is wrong and to hold when it's right, but how many people can truly achieve it? If you continue to lose in the futures market, I suggest you stop and review whether your trading system has issues! Trading is against human nature. It is difficult to gain rewards in the market while being emotional and unable to overcome human nature! However, with technological iterations, Binance has now launched trading bots that can help us avoid emotional trading!
Why am I bullish on it? First, this is a web3 project that has gone viral, and of course, this meme was not created by the founder, but by the community.
Second, CZ said he would support projects that truly focus on delivering great products, and LifeKLine is a great innovative product!
Then, why did it surge today? Because the post about the project's progress update from the LifeKLine founder was just retweeted by Nina Rong, a staff member from BNB Chain.
So I believe it will definitely be listed on Binance Alpha, and it even has the potential to be listed right after $币安人生
Since I left Web2 in mid-September last year, I still feel fulfilled every day.
On weekdays, I still wake up at 8:30 AM, wash up, have breakfast, and then turn on my computer to check the market, study the market while interacting with the Perp_dex and prediction market projects.
In the afternoon, I sip tea while browsing X and write some content. After the domestic market closes at three o'clock, I do a simple review.
By about five o’clock, I go downstairs to a nearby park to run. I really enjoy meditating while running; many times, strategies and ideas come to me during my runs.
Besides crypto, I also dabble in Hong Kong stocks, US stocks, A-shares, and commodities. Last year, after paying nearly 100,000 yuan in tuition for the glass commodity, I have now developed a strategy that suits me, and I can slowly make a profit in the futures market!
However, some friends feel great and free after leaving their jobs, but after a month or two, they start to feel anxious and confused. Ultimately, the reason for their anxiety and confusion is the loss of cash flow.
But I have never felt anxious since leaving my job because I had already been gradually building my passive income before I left last year.
In addition to the stable income from contract quantitative strategies in Web3 (which can basically cover my living expenses), I also have some side hustles in Web2, working with friends to sell digital beauty products on platforms like PDD/JD, bringing in over a thousand yuan each month.
So not working doesn’t mean I’m not working. I’m now working for myself, full of energy every day. The current me is a high-energy version of 30000 😁.
Newcomers should participate more in on-chain projects to have a better chance of achieving results.
The discovery of the Binance Wallet - the DApp page has already organized this year's popular projects for us! Participating in these with small funds may lead to potential airdrop expectations in the future!
The popular tracks in 2026 are still Perp_Dex and prediction markets.
I recently experienced several projects on the Binance Wallet, and now the scoring rules for various prediction markets and perp_dex have changed but remain fundamentally the same, roughly as follows:
1. Place orders, provide liquidity. 2. Trade, the larger the trading volume, the more points awarded, but frequent trading is not allowed to prevent artificially inflating volumes. 3. Holding positions, the longer the holding period, the more points awarded, but the weight is lower than that of trading.
When newcomers interact with these on-chain projects, they can refer to the three rules above to earn points, and you will definitely thank your current self six months from now.