The crypto market tends to react less to fundamentals and focus more on sentiment. Therefore, when a narrative is trending, price will only follow if trading volume and investor positioning confirm it. With Melania Trump's documentary set to release on January 30, traders are watching whether the hype will translate into sustainable demand for MELANIA and TRUMP tokens or if both coins risk being forgotten after the hype wanes.
So far, the prices of both coins on the Solana network show early positioning but not full conviction. Both the chart, price, trading volume, and on-chain signals indicate that both coins are at a decision point, where merely having the hype might not be enough.
Analyzing MELANIA's price, the uptrend structure is becoming clear, but trading volume is still low.
On the daily chart, the price of MELANIA is forming a cup and handle pattern, which often signals an uptrend when confirmed. The rounded base formed throughout December, followed by a short consolidation that created the handle pattern. Recently, the price has attempted to break out from the handle, indicating the beginning of buying interest.
However, the attempt to break through the resistance is still weak, as the price of Melania Meme token remains range-bound over the past seven days.
The neckline of this structure is slightly sloping down, making confirmation more difficult while the price of MELANIA attempted to break the neckline on January 24 but failed due to a lack of trading volume, not just selling pressure pushing the price down.
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From a purely chart perspective, moving up according to the cup pattern may have a potential upside of up to 111%. However, without an increase in trading volume, this prediction will still lack practical weight.
Trading volume confirms weakness.
DEX trading volume clearly reflects the issues, as MELANIA's movements on Ethereum have been quite quiet over the weeks, with only a peak on January 19, where volume spiked temporarily before normalizing. Beyond that, market player participation has been sparse.
Therefore, whether it is a volume pattern on DEX or CEX, it does not align with the current resistance breakout.
Low trading volume on DEX and CEX is significant, as MELANIA is a coin driven by hype. These coins need continuous money inflow to sustain the trend. However, currently, the money inflow is sporadic.
Thus, it explains why prices are stagnant, even though the price patterns look strong and interesting.
Positive sentiment rises first and then decreases.
Social sentiment provides additional data. The positive sentiment index for MELANIA peaked on January 20, reaching around 4.0, the highest since late October. Historically, when there is a spike in positive sentiment like this, a price rally usually follows, but there will be a waiting period.
For instance, in late October, the sentiment index peaked at around 4.95, shortly after which the price surged to about 0.20 USD by mid-November. This pattern suggests that sentiment often leads price movements if supported by volume.
But this time, market sentiment has cooled down. The index is currently around 1.85, significantly below the January high.
Moreover, as the documentary approaches, there are no signs of renewed excitement, which is also a warning. If the hype must lead this event significantly, the sentiment index should have risen by now.
Whales are buying, but not aggressively.
Additionally, on-chain data provides further details. Over the past 7 days, MELANIA whales have increased their holdings by around 9.7%, while balances on exchanges have slightly decreased. This indicates early purchases by some, not a last-minute FOMO rush.
However, size or scale is also important. While accumulation is evident, it is not very strong. Whales are interested but have not yet driven a breakout.
The main price level of Melania that defines the trend.
For MELANIA, the structure is more significant, with these price levels to watch:
Confirmation of an uptrend requires a clear daily close above 0.190 USD along with increased trading volume.
If the level is surpassed, the upward direction to 0.298 USD will become feasible according to the structure after a breakout occurs.
If the price of MELANIA drops below 0.141 USD, the cup and handle structure will weaken.
If it falls below 0.098 USD, this pattern will become invalid and signal a risk to sell on news.
Currently, the price of MELANIA is right in the middle. The structure is still there but lacks support from trading volume.
This leads to the next question: If the first lady's coin needs hype, sentiment, and corresponding volume, does TRUMP show similar or stronger signals, or is money in the market choosing sides in the same narrative?
Analyzing TRUMP's price: whales are showing more interest, but trading volume issues remain.
TRUMP's chart tells a different but related story. The Official Trump price is trading in a descending wedge pattern, which often rallies when the upper trendline is broken. From a technical perspective, TRUMP is closer to confirming a breakout than MELANIA. However, compared to the price of MELANIA, which swings within a narrow range, TRUMP's price has decreased nearly 3% from the previous week.
The measurement from the descending wedge pattern indicates a 56% chance of an upward movement if momentum begins to build.
Whale movements are stronger than MELANIA.
On-chain data reveals a clear distinction between the two coins, as TRUMP whales have increased their holdings by more than 17% over the past week, nearly double the accumulation rate of MELANIA.
This indicates that larger players are positioning in TRUMP with more confidence, possibly due to social prominence and broader narrative reach.
TRUMP's social prominence is at 0.39%, while MELANIA is at 0.006%, which is one of the reasons whales are accumulating TRUMP more.
DEX activity reflects a decrease in participation.
Despite the accumulation by whales, data from DEX shows that retail participation is declining, similar to MELANIA. The DEX volume of TRUMP peaked on January 3, with a daily volume exceeding 157 million USD. After that, the activity dropped to around 7.5 million USD or more than a 95% decline.
The average trade size and the number of traders have continuously decreased, confirming that the recent price stability is not driven by new demand.
This reflects MELANIA's issue of having a structure but lacking continuity in driving force.
The most important price level for TRUMP in the United States.
For this movement to occur, TRUMP must close clearly above USD 5.15, which will break the wedge resistance and change the market structure to an uptrend.
If achievable, moving towards the target of USD 7.38 seems reasonably possible.
In a downtrend, the risk is clearly defined
USD 4.64 has served as the primary price support for TRUMP since the correction in October.
If it clearly loses USD 4.63, it will weaken the uptrend structure.
The correlation links MELANIA with TRUMP.
The final point is about the correlation.
In the long term, MELANIA and TRUMP have a positive correlation of 0.88, meaning that the price movement of one party often influences the other. Additionally, the social dominance related to Trump is significantly higher than MELANIA, which explains why large investors are more interested in TRUMP.
This correlation is important because if MELANIA breaks out with accompanying volume from the TRUMP documentary, it statistically has a chance to benefit, and vice versa.
But correlation does not create trading volume; it merely transfers momentum when that starts to happen.
However, both of these coins have almost no correlation with BTC, especially MELANIA, which still shows a negative correlation in the long term. Therefore, if BTC declines, at least MELANIA may receive positive support.
Both coins are structured similarly, with MELANIA showing an uptrend but lacking strong participation, while TRUMP is supported by stronger whales, but retail investor activity has weakened as DEX trading volume has declined.
Therefore, for the price to rise, trading volume must increase before or during the documentary's release, not afterward; otherwise, both face the risk of a temporary bounce and then quickly losing momentum.
