In crypto, they love the word 'cycles'.
It is repeated like a spell: 4 years, halving, drop, accumulation, bull run.
As if the market is an Excel spreadsheet: waited → pressed the button → became rich.

Spoiler: it doesn't work that way.

Most of the 'cycles' that you are shown are drawn after the fact.
When everything has already happened, it is very easy to draw lines, make arrows and say:
"Well, it was all obvious."

In real-time, nothing is obvious.
Especially now.

Earlier, crypto was wild. Primitive.
Less money, fewer players, fewer rules.
Today, there are funds, market makers, regulators, geopolitics, wars, and recessions.
And to expect that in such an environment the chart will obediently repeat 2017 or 2021 - that's not analysis, that's self-deception.

A separate religion - alt season.
Everyone is waiting for it. Absolutely everyone.
Everyone sits with their bag of alts and convinces themselves that 'it's about to start'.

But there is one unpleasant truth that people don't like to talk about:
there are too many altcoins.

Liquidity is not infinite.
The market is fragmented.
And if previously dozens of projects received Xs, now - only a few.
The rest, at best, simply won't die.
At worst - will quietly disappear, along with the wallets of investors and their hopes.

Many built their lives around the classic 4-year cycle:
bought → suffered → sold.
And now they sit in losses and sincerely don't understand why the 'cycle broke'.

It hasn't broken.
The market simply isn't obligated to play by the majority's script.

Growth doesn't start when it's shouted about on Twitter and Telegram.
It starts when it's beneficial for big capital.
And big capital needs two things: cash and control over liquidity.

That's why all these sharp spikes and crashes coincide so strangely with crises, wars, and political events.
This is not a conspiracy.
This is simple money logic.

No one planned to make the retail investor rich.
They are brought into the market in euphoria.
They scare with FUD.
They force you to sell in fear.
And they take positions precisely when patience runs out.

So the main question is not 'when will the bull run be'.
The main question is whether you have your own strategy.

Not from YouTube.
Not from Twitter.
Not from other threads.

Your own. Simple. Clear.
One that you will be able to execute when it's scary, boring, or everyone around is yelling:
"This is the end."

The market owes nothing to anyone.
But it mercilessly punishes illusions -
and always rewards discipline, a cool head
and the ability to think longer than one 'cycle'.