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How Not to Trade
Yesterday I had a crazy trading story that clearly shows how not to trade, even if in the end everything ends up positive. At first, I entered a short position on one private coin, the market went against me, my position was completely wiped out, and trading started from an unpleasant loss. Instead of stopping, switching focus, and waiting for a new setup, I decided to re-enter the same idea in the same direction, basically out of stubbornness: 'I'll just open one last time and see what happens.' This is exactly the same madness I wrote about yesterday.
Survivorship Bias
Everyone remembers what this is, right? When a person draws conclusions based on someone else's successful case, but forgets about the millions who have failed.
For example, someone made a million dollars on meme coins. Everyone rushed to 'play with memes', forgetting that 99% of participants in these games lost money.
For example, someone made a million dollars on meme coins. Everyone rushed to 'play with memes', forgetting that 99% of participants in these games lost money.
BTC seems to be on pause now - 86–97k. Metals are rising, while digital gold stays in place.
Institutions that previously rushed to buy are now selling more than they are buying. Adding a shutdown in the USA and Japan with record bonds - and capital is fleeing to "safe" instruments.
In short: 90k - the wall of sales, 86k - support. As long as these levels hold, BTC is for safe strategies.
Interestingly, everything can change instantly if Japan intervenes in the economy. Then gold may "cool down," and Bitcoin might surge upwards.
My conclusion? While global signals are unclear, waiting for an altseason or a sharp rise is naïve. But therein lies the thrill - with one flip of a switch, everything can change.
Institutions that previously rushed to buy are now selling more than they are buying. Adding a shutdown in the USA and Japan with record bonds - and capital is fleeing to "safe" instruments.
In short: 90k - the wall of sales, 86k - support. As long as these levels hold, BTC is for safe strategies.
Interestingly, everything can change instantly if Japan intervenes in the economy. Then gold may "cool down," and Bitcoin might surge upwards.
My conclusion? While global signals are unclear, waiting for an altseason or a sharp rise is naïve. But therein lies the thrill - with one flip of a switch, everything can change.
У що перетворилися б $1000, вкладені рік тому в різні активи:
Золото → $1 800 (+80%)
Срібло → $3 420 (+243%)
BTC → $859 (−14%)
ETH → $890 (−11%)
DOGE → $320 (−68%)
LINK → $520 (−48%)
AVAX → $320 (−68%)
TON → $290 (−71%)
UNI → $350 (−65%)
PEPE → $280 (−72%)
ONDO → $260 (−74%)
APT → $170 (−83%)
TRUMP → $180 (−82%)
SEI → $270 (−73%)
INJ → $200 (−80%)
MELANIA → $12 (−98.8%)
Золото → $1 800 (+80%)
Срібло → $3 420 (+243%)
BTC → $859 (−14%)
ETH → $890 (−11%)
DOGE → $320 (−68%)
LINK → $520 (−48%)
AVAX → $320 (−68%)
TON → $290 (−71%)
UNI → $350 (−65%)
PEPE → $280 (−72%)
ONDO → $260 (−74%)
APT → $170 (−83%)
TRUMP → $180 (−82%)
SEI → $270 (−73%)
INJ → $200 (−80%)
MELANIA → $12 (−98.8%)
Користувач дав ІІ-агенту Clawdbot повний доступ до криптопортфеля й наказав наторгувати $1 000 000.
Бот використав 25 стратегій, наклепав 3 000+ звітів, вигадав 12 “інноваційних” алгоритмів, перечитав увесь X (Twitter) і намалював графіки з кожного можливого індикатора.
Результат: портфель обнулено.
Бот використав 25 стратегій, наклепав 3 000+ звітів, вигадав 12 “інноваційних” алгоритмів, перечитав увесь X (Twitter) і намалював графіки з кожного можливого індикатора.
Результат: портфель обнулено.
It's time to remember the legendary tweet from Trump a year ago, in which he announced a crypto reserve that includes the tickers XRP, SOL, and ADA.
It was in this tweet that the crypto market received the most powerful intraday pump in 2025.
Trump never mentioned more about the crypto reserve.
It was in this tweet that the crypto market received the most powerful intraday pump in 2025.
Trump never mentioned more about the crypto reserve.
I look at $PENGUIN and think that more interesting than any graph here is not the token itself, but the story.
The scene is simple: a penguin leaves the colony and goes not where it should, but to the mountains. Against logic, against survival. And it goes because it can. People picked up on this instantly. The story about choice, even if it's wrong - always works.
Memes exploded on social media. Big accounts poured oil on the fire. And even the White House suddenly became part of this narrative. Then appears $PENGUIN - a meme-token without a product, without utility, without a roadmap. There is only a story. And it costs money. 170M at its peak - the market paid for the story, not the token.
Interestingly, the market reacts not to meaning, but to symbolism. People want to believe that they are choosing their path, even when they are just buying a meme-token. And as long as the story is alive, the capitalization is also alive. As soon as the story burns out - everything will fall apart.
And I catch myself thinking: it doesn't matter if the penguin reaches the mountains. What matters is that it went. And while we watch, the market moves along with it. This is not about money. This is about faith. And for it, people pay.
The scene is simple: a penguin leaves the colony and goes not where it should, but to the mountains. Against logic, against survival. And it goes because it can. People picked up on this instantly. The story about choice, even if it's wrong - always works.
Memes exploded on social media. Big accounts poured oil on the fire. And even the White House suddenly became part of this narrative. Then appears $PENGUIN - a meme-token without a product, without utility, without a roadmap. There is only a story. And it costs money. 170M at its peak - the market paid for the story, not the token.
Interestingly, the market reacts not to meaning, but to symbolism. People want to believe that they are choosing their path, even when they are just buying a meme-token. And as long as the story is alive, the capitalization is also alive. As soon as the story burns out - everything will fall apart.
And I catch myself thinking: it doesn't matter if the penguin reaches the mountains. What matters is that it went. And while we watch, the market moves along with it. This is not about money. This is about faith. And for it, people pay.
$HYPE against the market overnight gave +20% - is this a return to prime?
The minute chart $BTC on all major exchanges looks like a shitcoin with a capitalization of 150k.
Why is that?
Why is that?
Metal Rally:
Today I once again catch myself thinking: no one really understands the metal market. Everyone talks about 'another rally', 'another wave', but it's not that at all. It's not a numbers game. It's a physical shortage. Resources are simply lacking. And they are needed by everyone – from electric vehicles to data centers for AI.
Silver hit $48 in 1980
Then it collapsed by −92%
And it took this asset 45 years to return to the highs of 1980
So if someone is long on silver now — keep this in mind $XAG
Then it collapsed by −92%
And it took this asset 45 years to return to the highs of 1980
So if someone is long on silver now — keep this in mind $XAG
About cycles in crypto, alt season, and why the market owes nothing to anyone
In crypto, they love the word 'cycles'.
It is repeated like a spell: 4 years, halving, drop, accumulation, bull run.
As if the market is an Excel spreadsheet: waited → pressed the button → became rich.
Spoiler: it doesn't work that way.
Most of the 'cycles' that you are shown are drawn after the fact.
When everything has already happened, it is very easy to draw lines, make arrows and say:
It is repeated like a spell: 4 years, halving, drop, accumulation, bull run.
As if the market is an Excel spreadsheet: waited → pressed the button → became rich.
Spoiler: it doesn't work that way.
Most of the 'cycles' that you are shown are drawn after the fact.
When everything has already happened, it is very easy to draw lines, make arrows and say:
Why 90% of people in crypto don't make money (and it's not due to a lack of knowledge)
I often see people who have been in crypto for years, know all the terms, news, but their bank doesn't grow. And it's not at all about them being 'dumb' or 'knowing little'.
A real problem is the lack of a system.
Most people act like this: saw a post – entered, saw a pump – chased it, saw a drop – immediately exited. This is not a strategy, it's a reaction.
A real problem is the lack of a system.
Most people act like this: saw a post – entered, saw a pump – chased it, saw a drop – immediately exited. This is not a strategy, it's a reaction.
Recently, I realized one thing in the crypto space - the race for new projects almost never yields real impact.
Earlier, every morning I would open my laptop and chase after new projects, looking for interesting coins, trying to "catch a gem" and work it out. But lately, the results have been minimal. You could even say - ZERO IMPACT: a lot of time, sometimes even money, and no progress.
I don't want to judge those who search for new projects every day - perhaps you are lucky and actually find gems. I just have been less fortunate.
Therefore, this year my strategy has changed: I plan to select 6-8 truly worthy projects and work them to the maximum. So far the list is forming, but if you're interested - I can share later.
Let's discuss in the comments below.
What are your approaches now? A race for new ones or "deep immersion" in your favorite projects?
Earlier, every morning I would open my laptop and chase after new projects, looking for interesting coins, trying to "catch a gem" and work it out. But lately, the results have been minimal. You could even say - ZERO IMPACT: a lot of time, sometimes even money, and no progress.
I don't want to judge those who search for new projects every day - perhaps you are lucky and actually find gems. I just have been less fortunate.
Therefore, this year my strategy has changed: I plan to select 6-8 truly worthy projects and work them to the maximum. So far the list is forming, but if you're interested - I can share later.
Let's discuss in the comments below.
What are your approaches now? A race for new ones or "deep immersion" in your favorite projects?
The macroeconomic environment is currently putting maximum pressure on risky assets: the risk of a U.S. shutdown, tariffs on Canada, geopolitics (Iran, Greenland), legal uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariffs, stress in Japan due to rising yields and a weak yen.
Capital is flowing into safe assets - gold and silver.
At the same time, we feel we are at the peak or very close to the peak of negative sentiment. The news is extremely harsh, and the market has already taken defensive positions. In such conditions, $BTC often either forms a local bottom or transitions into a phase of technical rebound. The overnight movement at the CME opening could be the first signal of seller fatigue.
The basic scenario for the near future is a volatile flat or rebound.
This is not about FOMO, but about cautious preparation for a change in sentiment.
Capital is flowing into safe assets - gold and silver.
At the same time, we feel we are at the peak or very close to the peak of negative sentiment. The news is extremely harsh, and the market has already taken defensive positions. In such conditions, $BTC often either forms a local bottom or transitions into a phase of technical rebound. The overnight movement at the CME opening could be the first signal of seller fatigue.
The basic scenario for the near future is a volatile flat or rebound.
This is not about FOMO, but about cautious preparation for a change in sentiment.
10 realistic tips / observations for beginners
1. You are not a very good trader — but maybe you can become better.
Find your zone of genius. I am a bad trader, but I do quite well selling pictures for $80–100K. There are a billion opportunities in the market: participating in presales, testing DeFi projects, using knowledge from options trading, investing in the next Shiba token, tracking the movements of funds' wallets online. Find your zone of genius.
Find your zone of genius. I am a bad trader, but I do quite well selling pictures for $80–100K. There are a billion opportunities in the market: participating in presales, testing DeFi projects, using knowledge from options trading, investing in the next Shiba token, tracking the movements of funds' wallets online. Find your zone of genius.
Current state of affairs in the crypto market.
Silver > 110
This is almost +300% since January 2025
Capitalization is already > 6 trillion (at this rate, it will surpass gold)
January 2026 — the best month for silver since 1979
This is almost +300% since January 2025
Capitalization is already > 6 trillion (at this rate, it will surpass gold)
January 2026 — the best month for silver since 1979
America has been flooded with fake gold and silver.
Imagine: buying metal at a crazy markup, only to find out that it's a counterfeit.
Imagine: buying metal at a crazy markup, only to find out that it's a counterfeit.
This is one of those stories that is painful to read.
You enter the token early.
You spend 6 SOL ($867) and buy 16.5 million $PENGUIN . A little time passes - and you exit the deal with a profit of 0.12 SOL ($18). It seems like a trifle, but there is a plus - which means everything is right.
And then life plays a cruel joke.
Today these 16.5 million $PENGUIN are worth $1.4 million. What you sold "too early" could have changed everything. Lost profit - $1,400,000.
This is not about a mistake.
It's about patience, fear, and that moment when you never know if it was worth just holding on a little longer. Crypto is not about money. It's about nerves.
You enter the token early.
You spend 6 SOL ($867) and buy 16.5 million $PENGUIN . A little time passes - and you exit the deal with a profit of 0.12 SOL ($18). It seems like a trifle, but there is a plus - which means everything is right.
And then life plays a cruel joke.
Today these 16.5 million $PENGUIN are worth $1.4 million. What you sold "too early" could have changed everything. Lost profit - $1,400,000.
This is not about a mistake.
It's about patience, fear, and that moment when you never know if it was worth just holding on a little longer. Crypto is not about money. It's about nerves.
Liquidation instead of coffee in the morning 🤌
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