While the market discusses Bitcoin's dominance and the craze for new L1s, Ethereum is steadily transforming into the global settlement layer. At the beginning of 2026, amidst large-scale upgrades, ETH has shown very interesting technical patterns.
📊 Technical Analysis: Water Level Navigation
As of now (January 2026), ETH is fluctuating in the range of $2,850–$3,150, attempting to establish a foothold above the psychological level of $3,000.
Resistance area: The key obstacle is between $3,350 and $3,450. Once this area is broken and the price stands above the super trend line (around $3,500–$3,600), it will open the way to the local high point of $4,200. Support level: The most important 'cement level' support is in the range of $2,800–$2,860. If the price falls below this level, the next important support will be the area of $2,500–$2,600 where long-term holders' liquidity is concentrated. Indicators: The daily RSI is in a neutral to slightly bullish zone (around 63–65), allowing room for growth without overheating immediately. The MACD shows a weak golden cross, indicating that strength is building up.
⚙️ 2026 Fundamental drivers
Ethereum has evolved from just a smart contract blockchain into institutional-grade infrastructure:
Post-Pectra era: The effects of the 2025 upgrades (Pectra and Fusaka) have fully manifested. Transaction fees on L2 networks have dropped to a few cents, while institutional staking limits have increased by 64 times, making it standard for banks to operate validator nodes. ETFs and institutions: Despite a temporary outflow of funds in January, net inflows into ETH ETFs remain an important driving force. Large funds view ETH as a 'digital bond' with staking yields. RWA and stablecoins: Ethereum's dominance in the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) and stablecoin settlements (accounting for over 60% market share) creates stable endogenous demand for gas consumption.
📈 Forecasts and targets
Conservative scenario: Maintain within the $3,200–$3,800 range in the first quarter, gradually approaching an average level of $4,300–$4,500 by mid-year. Optimistic scenario: With increasing risk appetite and continued inflow of ETF funds, the target may shift towards $5,000–$7,000 based on logarithmic regression models and rainbow charts. Risk: Pressure from competitors (such as Solana) and macroeconomic uncertainty could keep the asset in a consolidation state until the end of the year.
Summary: Ethereum in 2026 is the top choice for those pursuing reliability and large-scale adoption. Technically, we are in a 'healthy' accumulation phase before the next big cycle.
This does not constitute financial advice. DYOR! 🔍
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