The chance of a U.S. shutdown just hit 80% (Polymarket & Kalshi).
This isn’t just politics, it could strongly affect crypto markets.
Last shutdown (Oct–Nov 2025):
$BTC -29%
$ETH -36%
Altcoins -50–60%
Gold & silver went higher
Why it’s happening:
Senate blocked the bill over DHS & ICE issues
House passed it
Deadline: Saturday, Jan 30, 2026
Market risks:
- Data blackout – No CPI, jobs, or balance sheets → markets lack information
- Financial stress – Repo margins could be under pressure; Fed’s backup cash is low
- Recession risk – 0.2% of GDP lost per week if shutdown continues
- Crypto signal – SOFR–IORB spread widening shows cash stress (like 2020)
Market effects:
Risk assets: $BTC, $ETH, altcoins could fall quickly
Safe havens: Gold, silver, and cash may see more demand
Crypto markets are already pricing in the risk.
Volatility could happen before Saturday, history shows crypto reacts first.
