Bitcoin has now entered a correction phase following the recent downturn. However, from the market structure perspective, the larger trend still looks good.
The price movement appears to be a controlled pullback rather than a price collapse and aligns with the pattern of setting higher time frames, which historically has been a signal before the trend continues.
Bitcoin's profits are decreasing.
From a trader's perspective, the recent downturn does not seem to be a panic sell-off, but rather a push-out of weaker holders. Short-term sellers appear to be stepping back, while larger, more patient players are quietly repositioning.
This transition often signals that the market has shifted from the late stage of distribution to the early stage of accumulation, creating conditions for volatility to increase when liquidity returns.
Network data clearly supports this view. The profitability rate across the network has significantly decreased, with the share of Bitcoin in profit falling from 75.3% to 66.9%, resulting in profits now being below the previous lows of around 69.1%, which is a zone that often relates to short-term price stability.
As more holders start to have a higher cost basis than the price, sellers often reduce their selling because the incentive to sell at a loss decreases.
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In the past, when prices fell below this lower profit range, it often acted as a mechanism for resetting the market, allowing prices to build a base for another move up. Although a recent short-term downturn has interrupted this pattern, current price levels are still significantly lower than previous peaks.
The behavior of long-term holders further reinforces the bullish trend. The Long-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (LTH NUPL) indicator shows that the profits of long-term holders are decreasing, approaching levels that have historically changed holder behavior.
When LTH NUPL drops below 0.60, long-term participants typically slow down or stop distributing, choosing to wait for a better situation instead. In previous cycles, this change indicated the beginning of a new accumulation phase and reduced selling pressure, allowing prices to recover systematically.
BTC price aims to reach a new high.
Technically, the price of Bitcoin remains in an ascending broadening wedge pattern. The price just bounced from the lower edge of this structure and is currently trading near USD 88,475. A key factor for the bulls is breaking resistance at USD 89,241 and holding above the psychological level of USD 90,000. If the price accepts above USD 90,000, it will be a signal that the strength of the short-term trend is improving, confirming strength in this pattern.
A confirmed breakout from the wedge will open opportunities to achieve higher targets, with a move towards the USD 98,000 level likely being the first major milestone. Then there may be a pullback to accumulate strength around USD 95,000 to build a support base, which will be crucial before pushing up continuously towards the USD 100,000 target.
However, we cannot overlook the downside risks. If selling pressure returns or the macro situation worsens, maintaining the current level may fail, leading to Bitcoin dropping below USD 87,210. In this case, a deeper correction towards the USD 84,698 level is likely, which would negate the bullish scenario and delay the breakout summary.
