Nearly $10 billion BTC & ETH options will simultaneously expire on Friday, and history shows this is usually a time when the market is more volatile than usual.
The big question right now: will the 'max pain' effect continue to take effect?
📌 What's happening?
🔹 $8.64 billion BTC options on Deribit will expire
Max pain: $90,000
🔹 $1.28 billion ETH options on Deribit will expire
Max pain: $3,100
⏰ Expiration time:
08:00 UTC
15:00 Vietnam time
01:00 California time
🧠 What is max pain? (in simple terms)
Max pain is the price level at which most options contracts will expire worthless.
👉 This means:
Option buyers suffer the most losses
Option sellers (usually market makers) retain almost the entire premium
Therefore, max pain is often likened to a 'price magnet' as the expiration moment approaches.
🧲 Is the price 'attracted' to max pain?
📊 In many cases:
Prices tend to oscillate around max pain
Short-term volatility increases before expiration
⚠️ However, max pain is not a certain rule:
Major macro news
ETF cash flow
Strong fluctuations from the traditional market
👉 These factors can completely cause the price to deviate far from max pain.
🔍 Personal perspective
Personally, I believe that in the short term, BTC and ETH are likely to experience strong fluctuations around the $90K and $3,100 levels as the expiration time approaches.
If BTC cannot hold the $90K level before expiration, I lean towards a scenario of stronger fluctuations rather than a calm sideways movement.
👉 For short-term traders, this is not the time for FOMO, but a period that requires strict risk management.
❓ A question for you
You are:
Trade according to the scenario 'max pain attracts price'?
Or wait outside after expiration and then enter the order?
💬 Share your perspective for this weekend.
