Federal Reserve's 2026 First Rate Decision Outlook: A Key Test for Gold Bulls
At 3 AM Beijing time today, the Federal Reserve will announce its first rate decision of 2026. The market widely expects that this decision will maintain interest rates unchanged, pausing the rate cut process. The core focus of this decision has shifted from monetary policy to political issues such as the independence of the Federal Reserve, the selection of the new chairman, and the future of current chairman Jerome Powell. This uncertainty will significantly increase market volatility risks.
Currently, international gold prices have surpassed the critical level of 5250, and the US dollar index has fallen to a four-year low, with market sentiment at a highly sensitive stage.
• If this decision sends a hawkish signal (such as strengthening the stance on inflation control and hinting at delaying rate cuts), gold prices may face technical correction pressure, but geopolitical risks and medium to long-term rate cut expectations will still provide core support for gold prices.
• If the decision leans dovish (such as indicating a tendency for easing and weakening inflation concerns), gold prices are expected to directly challenge the 5500 integer level.
Operational Strategy
The core idea maintains the trading logic of "buying the dip." The current key support range has moved up to 5200-5230. If prices retest this range and stabilize, one can consider placing long positions, targeting the 5260-5300 range; if the 5200 support level is effectively broken, it is advisable to wait and observe, waiting for confirmation of lower-level support before taking action. #黄金 #黄金暴涨 $XAU
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