Bitcoin's price cooled off after failing to achieve a sustained break above $100,000 in January. The rejection prompted profit-taking in the short term and led BTC into a consolidation phase.
Since then, the price behavior has begun to indicate stabilization, not aggressive selling. On-chain and macroeconomic indicators now point to an improvement in conditions. Investor positioning suggests a slightly optimistic scenario for February.
Bitcoin sales for profit highlight a pattern
A significant transition to a sustained appreciation of Bitcoin should be reflected in liquidity-sensitive indicators. One of the main ones is the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio metric, based on the simple moving average of 90 days. Historical data shows that strong bull cycles only occurred when this index exceeded the level of 5.0.
Mid-cycle recoveries in the last two years followed the same dynamics. Whenever the index did not stay above this level, the rallies quickly lost strength. A new advance above 5.0 would indicate fresh capital entering the market. This would also suggest that profit-taking is being absorbed by new demand, rather than causing negative pressure on the price.
Federal Reserve's decision may impact price
Macroeconomic conditions remain favorable after the Federal Reserve's most recent monetary policy decision. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in its first meeting of the year. Chairman Jerome Powell classified the rates as being within a 'neutral range', signaling a possible prolonged pause, not further monetary tightening.
Market psychology also corroborates this scenario. According to data from Santiment, extreme sentiment levels tend to coincide with turning points. Optimism and greed tend to arise near peaks. Meanwhile, pessimism and fear usually precede recoveries. Currently, caution prevails, which tends to favor gradual advances.
Moreover, Bitcoin spot ETFs may be decisive in February. In the last three months, these funds have recorded consecutive net outflows. In November 2025, the segment had a withdrawal of $3.48 billion. December saw an additional $1.09 billion in outflows.
January 2026 showed significant deceleration, with outflows of $278 million. This slower pace suggests that institutional selling pressure is weakening. If flows turn positive in February, demand for ETFs could strengthen market stability. New structural contributions would increase the likelihood of appreciation.
Bitcoin's price has an ambitious target
From a technical standpoint, BTC's price continues to be traded within an ascending expanding wedge pattern. Recently, the asset reacted at the lower line of this structure. Bitcoin is currently quoted around $88,321. To confirm strength, buyers need to push BTC above $89,241 and reclaim the psychological level of $90,000. Acceptance above this level would confirm the intensification of the bullish trend.
February is traditionally positive for Bitcoin's price, with an average historical return of 14.3%. The factors mentioned already indicate a comparable scenario for BTC, suggesting that a 14% increase would bring the asset to $101,000.
A confirmed break of this wedge would open space for higher targets. The first major target is close to $98,000. Thus, reaching this mark would likely be followed by a controlled correction down to $95,000. This consolidation zone will be crucial for establishing consistent support. Structures of this type often precede more intense bullish movements.
The risk of a decline remains a relevant factor. If selling pressure returns or the macroeconomic scenario worsens, the asset may not sustain current levels. A drop below $87,210 would increase the risk of negative continuation. In this context, a pullback to $84,698 becomes probable. This movement would nullify the optimistic projection and delay the breakout thesis.
The article Bitcoin Forecast: what to expect from BTC in February 2026? was first seen on BeInCrypto Brazil.
