Currently (30/01/2026), Jerome Powell's term as Fed Chair will end in May 2026. President Donald Trump has narrowed the list of candidates down to 4 and is expected to make an official announcement tomorrow morning (31/01/2026). According to the latest sources from Reuters, WSJ, Bloomberg, and prediction markets, the 4 potential candidates include:
Below is a detailed analysis of each individual, based on their background, monetary policy perspectives, strengths and weaknesses, and likelihood of being selected (based on publicly available information and market assessments to date):
1. Kevin Warsh (Current leading candidate)
Background: Former Fed governor (2006-2011), previously worked at Morgan Stanley, currently a scholar at the Hoover Institution and a board member of UPS.
Policy views: Hawkish (leaning towards strict inflation control), strongly criticizes QE (quantitative easing), supports reducing the Fed's balance sheet to lower short-term rates instead of direct cuts. He supports lower interest rates but through a cautious approach.
PAXGUSDTPerp5,088.95+5.63%Advantages: Deep experience at the Fed, well-understood internal mechanisms, highly regarded for independence.
Disadvantages: Hawkish views may cause the market to worry that the Fed will cut rates less than expected.
Likelihood of being selected: Currently the highest, with odds around 85-87% in prediction markets.
2. Christopher Waller
Background: Current Fed governor (appointed by Trump for the first term), previously a researcher at the Fed St. Louis.
Policy views: More dovish (leaning towards supporting growth), often advocates for interest rate cuts, has accurately forecasted inflation and employment recently. He emphasizes Fed independence.
Advantages: Currently in position, making it easier for Senate confirmation, supported by many large CEOs (over 80% in some surveys), less politically controversial.
XAGUSDTPerp87.72+6.05%Disadvantages: Less politically loyal to Trump than other candidates, may be seen as 'too similar to Powell.'
Likelihood of being selected: Still high, considered a safe and technical choice.
3. Kevin Hassett
Background: Top economic advisor to Trump, Director of the National Economic Council (NEC), previously served as the first-term Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) under Trump.
Policy views: Loyal to Trump's economic agenda, supports low interest rates to boost growth and reduce public debt costs.
Advantages: Very loyal to Trump, well-understood political priorities of the administration.
Disadvantages: Less direct experience at the Fed, Trump hesitated previously as he did not want to lose him in the White House; may face difficulties in confirming independence.
Likelihood of being selected: Has significantly declined recently, many sources suggest low chances.
4. Rick Rieder
Background: CIO of fixed income at BlackRock, managing over 2.7 trillion USD in assets.
Policy views: Bond market expert, regarded as flexible, may support interest rate cuts to boost growth.
Advantages: Highly respected by Wall Street, deep practical experience in financial markets.
Disadvantages: Previously made political contributions to Trump's opponents (such as Nikki Haley), may be excluded by Trump for political reasons.
BTCUSDTPerp76,681.8-2.30%Likelihood of being selected: Previously led but has significantly declined due to political contribution issues.
In summary, Kevin Warsh is currently the most promising candidate, according to the latest reports. The final appointment will require Senate confirmation, and anyone will face pressure to maintain Fed independence in the context of Trump wanting lower interest rates. We will know the official results soon – the situation can change rapidly!
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