$BTC

Why has Bitcoin been falling since mid-October?

* Global risk aversion is rising: Volatility in the Japanese government bond market and the risk of a US government shutdown (currently with a 78% probability) have triggered capital outflows from high-risk assets (such as cryptocurrencies) and into traditional safe-haven assets like gold.

Uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policy: Although the market expects the Fed to resume interest rate cuts in the second half of 2026, current official statements are hawkish, and the expectation of a prolonged high-interest-rate cycle is suppressing the performance of risk assets like Bitcoin.

Geopolitical conflicts: Instability factors such as the US-EU tariff war and the situation in the Middle East have led to a decline in market risk appetite. Bitcoin's "digital gold" safe-haven attribute has not been reflected in this round of adjustments, with funds more inclined to flow into physical gold.

📈 Market Structure and Fund Flows: The Game Between Institutional and Retail Investors

• Heavy Short-Term Selling Pressure: Over 220,000 investors worldwide were liquidated in the past 24 hours, with liquidations amounting to $1.014 billion, indicating a rapid withdrawal of leveraged funds and exacerbating short-term price volatility.

• Long-Term Institutional Positioning Remains Unchanged: Despite short-term market volatility, the trend of institutional fund inflows continues. The number of wallets holding 100-1000 Bitcoins continues to increase, and inflows into Bitcoin ETFs are also supporting long-term demand.

• Potential Impact of the Halving Cycle: Following the Bitcoin halving in 2024, the market still anticipates a bull market after historical halving cycles, but the current complexity of the macroeconomic environment may delay the realization of this cycle.

🛡️ Technical Analysis and Key Price Levels

• Support and Resistance: The current $80,000 level is a significant psychological support. A break below this level could lead to further declines towards the $75,000-$78,000 range. Resistance is seen in the $90,000-$95,000 area.

• Trend Signals: The daily chart shows the price has broken below multiple moving averages, indicating short-term bearish dominance. However, the trading volume has not shown extreme surges, suggesting a potential technical rebound.

With the Fed's rate cut expectations realized, continued institutional inflows, and the lagged effect of the halving cycle, Bitcoin is poised to retest the $100,000 level. #贵金属巨震 #下任美联储主席会是谁？