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🚀 The impact of the announcement of the Federal Reserve Chair candidate on the cryptocurrency market tonight
（The following is purely personal opinion）
🔍 Core background: The market has already bet on the election of Warsh
Currently, prediction markets show that former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh has seen his nomination probability soar to 95%, indicating that the market has already begun to digest this expectation in advance.
📉 Direct impact on the cryptocurrency market
1. Short-term pressure, increased volatility
Warsh has long advocated for shrinking the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and has taken a cautious stance on loose monetary policy. If he is elected, the market will expect a tightening of dollar liquidity, which is directly bearish for Bitcoin as a high-risk asset.
Affected by this expectation, Bitcoin's price has fallen to a two-month low, and if Warsh's election is formally confirmed tonight, it may trigger a new round of selling, potentially testing the $80,000 support level or even lower at $69,000!
2. Mid-term depends on policy pace
Although Warsh is hawkish, he is also considered a "moderate rate cutter." If he chooses to gradually lower interest rates and slowly reduce the balance sheet after taking office, market panic may ease, and Bitcoin could see a corrective rebound.
Conversely, if he pushes for aggressive balance sheet reduction, the cryptocurrency market will face sustained pressure.
3. Long-term focus on institutional capital trends
If BlackRock executive Reed (another candidate) unexpectedly gets elected, since he is publicly optimistic about Bitcoin and has pushed for a spot ETF, it could directly boost market confidence and drive Bitcoin's short-term surge.
However, the current likelihood of this is very low.
If Warsh is elected (high probability): closely monitor the $80,000 support level; if it breaks, consider short-term hedging; if it holds, wait for a rebound opportunity after sentiment stabilizes.
If an unexpected candidate emerges: if Reed is elected, watch for short-term long opportunities; if other candidates are elected, be wary of significant market volatility. #下任美联储主席会是谁？ $BTC
（The following is purely personal opinion）
🔍 Core background: The market has already bet on the election of Warsh
Currently, prediction markets show that former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh has seen his nomination probability soar to 95%, indicating that the market has already begun to digest this expectation in advance.
📉 Direct impact on the cryptocurrency market
1. Short-term pressure, increased volatility
Warsh has long advocated for shrinking the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and has taken a cautious stance on loose monetary policy. If he is elected, the market will expect a tightening of dollar liquidity, which is directly bearish for Bitcoin as a high-risk asset.
Affected by this expectation, Bitcoin's price has fallen to a two-month low, and if Warsh's election is formally confirmed tonight, it may trigger a new round of selling, potentially testing the $80,000 support level or even lower at $69,000!
2. Mid-term depends on policy pace
Although Warsh is hawkish, he is also considered a "moderate rate cutter." If he chooses to gradually lower interest rates and slowly reduce the balance sheet after taking office, market panic may ease, and Bitcoin could see a corrective rebound.
Conversely, if he pushes for aggressive balance sheet reduction, the cryptocurrency market will face sustained pressure.
3. Long-term focus on institutional capital trends
If BlackRock executive Reed (another candidate) unexpectedly gets elected, since he is publicly optimistic about Bitcoin and has pushed for a spot ETF, it could directly boost market confidence and drive Bitcoin's short-term surge.
However, the current likelihood of this is very low.
If Warsh is elected (high probability): closely monitor the $80,000 support level; if it breaks, consider short-term hedging; if it holds, wait for a rebound opportunity after sentiment stabilizes.
If an unexpected candidate emerges: if Reed is elected, watch for short-term long opportunities; if other candidates are elected, be wary of significant market volatility. #下任美联储主席会是谁？ $BTC
$BTC
Why has Bitcoin been falling since mid-October?
* Global risk aversion is rising: Volatility in the Japanese government bond market and the risk of a US government shutdown (currently with a 78% probability) have triggered capital outflows from high-risk assets (such as cryptocurrencies) and into traditional safe-haven assets like gold.
Uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policy: Although the market expects the Fed to resume interest rate cuts in the second half of 2026, current official statements are hawkish, and the expectation of a prolonged high-interest-rate cycle is suppressing the performance of risk assets like Bitcoin.
Geopolitical conflicts: Instability factors such as the US-EU tariff war and the situation in the Middle East have led to a decline in market risk appetite. Bitcoin's "digital gold" safe-haven attribute has not been reflected in this round of adjustments, with funds more inclined to flow into physical gold.
📈 Market Structure and Fund Flows: The Game Between Institutional and Retail Investors
• Heavy Short-Term Selling Pressure: Over 220,000 investors worldwide were liquidated in the past 24 hours, with liquidations amounting to $1.014 billion, indicating a rapid withdrawal of leveraged funds and exacerbating short-term price volatility.
• Long-Term Institutional Positioning Remains Unchanged: Despite short-term market volatility, the trend of institutional fund inflows continues. The number of wallets holding 100-1000 Bitcoins continues to increase, and inflows into Bitcoin ETFs are also supporting long-term demand.
• Potential Impact of the Halving Cycle: Following the Bitcoin halving in 2024, the market still anticipates a bull market after historical halving cycles, but the current complexity of the macroeconomic environment may delay the realization of this cycle.
🛡️ Technical Analysis and Key Price Levels
• Support and Resistance: The current $80,000 level is a significant psychological support. A break below this level could lead to further declines towards the $75,000-$78,000 range. Resistance is seen in the $90,000-$95,000 area.
• Trend Signals: The daily chart shows the price has broken below multiple moving averages, indicating short-term bearish dominance. However, the trading volume has not shown extreme surges, suggesting a potential technical rebound.
With the Fed's rate cut expectations realized, continued institutional inflows, and the lagged effect of the halving cycle, Bitcoin is poised to retest the $100,000 level. #贵金属巨震 #下任美联储主席会是谁？
Why has Bitcoin been falling since mid-October?
* Global risk aversion is rising: Volatility in the Japanese government bond market and the risk of a US government shutdown (currently with a 78% probability) have triggered capital outflows from high-risk assets (such as cryptocurrencies) and into traditional safe-haven assets like gold.
Uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policy: Although the market expects the Fed to resume interest rate cuts in the second half of 2026, current official statements are hawkish, and the expectation of a prolonged high-interest-rate cycle is suppressing the performance of risk assets like Bitcoin.
Geopolitical conflicts: Instability factors such as the US-EU tariff war and the situation in the Middle East have led to a decline in market risk appetite. Bitcoin's "digital gold" safe-haven attribute has not been reflected in this round of adjustments, with funds more inclined to flow into physical gold.
📈 Market Structure and Fund Flows: The Game Between Institutional and Retail Investors
• Heavy Short-Term Selling Pressure: Over 220,000 investors worldwide were liquidated in the past 24 hours, with liquidations amounting to $1.014 billion, indicating a rapid withdrawal of leveraged funds and exacerbating short-term price volatility.
• Long-Term Institutional Positioning Remains Unchanged: Despite short-term market volatility, the trend of institutional fund inflows continues. The number of wallets holding 100-1000 Bitcoins continues to increase, and inflows into Bitcoin ETFs are also supporting long-term demand.
• Potential Impact of the Halving Cycle: Following the Bitcoin halving in 2024, the market still anticipates a bull market after historical halving cycles, but the current complexity of the macroeconomic environment may delay the realization of this cycle.
🛡️ Technical Analysis and Key Price Levels
• Support and Resistance: The current $80,000 level is a significant psychological support. A break below this level could lead to further declines towards the $75,000-$78,000 range. Resistance is seen in the $90,000-$95,000 area.
• Trend Signals: The daily chart shows the price has broken below multiple moving averages, indicating short-term bearish dominance. However, the trading volume has not shown extreme surges, suggesting a potential technical rebound.
With the Fed's rate cut expectations realized, continued institutional inflows, and the lagged effect of the halving cycle, Bitcoin is poised to retest the $100,000 level. #贵金属巨震 #下任美联储主席会是谁？
$BTC #美联储维持利率不变
After inserting the pin, it's normal for the market to fluctuate up and down. If you can't handle this, it indicates you might not have much talent for trading cryptocurrencies, so if you're going to copy orders, make sure to hold on tight.
After inserting the pin, it's normal for the market to fluctuate up and down. If you can't handle this, it indicates you might not have much talent for trading cryptocurrencies, so if you're going to copy orders, make sure to hold on tight.
What contract to do without being trapped
When it breaks, there are plenty of opportunities to make money
Be sure to act, treat life and death lightly
#美联储维持利率不变 $BTC
When it breaks, there are plenty of opportunities to make money
Be sure to act, treat life and death lightly
#美联储维持利率不变 $BTC
$BTC
86000 This position looks very stable at the daily level. After several days of high-level consolidation, it has finally come down. The short position before the rise on the 26th has now made a small profit and exited. If the bottom support does not break, we can consider taking a short position aiming around 90000. #美联储维持利率不变 $BTC
86000 This position looks very stable at the daily level. After several days of high-level consolidation, it has finally come down. The short position before the rise on the 26th has now made a small profit and exited. If the bottom support does not break, we can consider taking a short position aiming around 90000. #美联储维持利率不变 $BTC
$BTC
Expected fluctuations are not significant. Personally, I believe there will be a drop followed by a rise, and after the long and short positions are washed out, it will be found that the price level has not changed. The behavior of the market is consistent, and for the long term, I still see a downward trend, while for the short term, we can layout around the upper and lower pressure.
Expected fluctuations are not significant. Personally, I believe there will be a drop followed by a rise, and after the long and short positions are washed out, it will be found that the price level has not changed. The behavior of the market is consistent, and for the long term, I still see a downward trend, while for the short term, we can layout around the upper and lower pressure.
Late night benefits
The big pancake daily line looks off to me
86800 directly enter short position
Is there anyone awake? 🔥🔥🔥#Scroll联创X账户被盗 $BTC
The big pancake daily line looks off to me
86800 directly enter short position
Is there anyone awake? 🔥🔥🔥#Scroll联创X账户被盗 $BTC
Another drop, brothers, how are you?
Tonight's position can wait for my notification to buy the dip!!🔥🔥🔥#Scroll联创X账户被盗 $BTC
Tonight's position can wait for my notification to buy the dip!!🔥🔥🔥#Scroll联创X账户被盗 $BTC
Last night my head was dizzy and I went to sleep at 12 o'clock.
In the morning, I saw that the market started to rise at 1 o'clock.
It was really chaotic. I kept sneezing in the morning; it was really uncomfortable 😖.
The thinking was correct, but unfortunately, my position...
After reducing my position, there wasn't much profit. I woke up and directly exited.
🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Is there anyone listening to Brother Big Coin for long positions! #特朗普取消对欧关税威胁 $BTC
In the morning, I saw that the market started to rise at 1 o'clock.
It was really chaotic. I kept sneezing in the morning; it was really uncomfortable 😖.
The thinking was correct, but unfortunately, my position...
After reducing my position, there wasn't much profit. I woke up and directly exited.
🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Is there anyone listening to Brother Big Coin for long positions! #特朗普取消对欧关税威胁 $BTC
$BTC #特朗普取消对欧关税威胁
88 can't be broken directly, go long
After reducing positions, the current average price is 89400
Tonight's target is around 92🔥🔥🔥🔥
88 can't be broken directly, go long
After reducing positions, the current average price is 89400
Tonight's target is around 92🔥🔥🔥🔥
Friends who synchronize can reduce one round of positions
In the afternoon, the intensity is relatively shallow; we mainly focus on the evening
Individual position reduction of 70%! Continue to look up; a pullback means adding positions
$BTC
#特朗普取消对欧关税威胁
In the afternoon, the intensity is relatively shallow; we mainly focus on the evening
Individual position reduction of 70%! Continue to look up; a pullback means adding positions
$BTC
#特朗普取消对欧关税威胁
Without further ado, people are alone
The timing to enter is slow
Subsequent pullbacks are supplemented in batches
89600 directly long #达沃斯世界经济论坛2026 #特朗普取消对欧关税威胁 $BTC
The timing to enter is slow
Subsequent pullbacks are supplemented in batches
89600 directly long #达沃斯世界经济论坛2026 #特朗普取消对欧关税威胁 $BTC
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