🚀 The impact of the announcement of the Federal Reserve Chair candidate on the cryptocurrency market tonight
（The following is purely personal opinion）
🔍 Core background: The market has already bet on the election of Warsh
Currently, prediction markets show that former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh has seen his nomination probability soar to 95%, indicating that the market has already begun to digest this expectation in advance.
📉 Direct impact on the cryptocurrency market
1. Short-term pressure, increased volatility
Warsh has long advocated for shrinking the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and has taken a cautious stance on loose monetary policy. If he is elected, the market will expect a tightening of dollar liquidity, which is directly bearish for Bitcoin as a high-risk asset.
Affected by this expectation, Bitcoin's price has fallen to a two-month low, and if Warsh's election is formally confirmed tonight, it may trigger a new round of selling, potentially testing the $80,000 support level or even lower at $69,000!
2. Mid-term depends on policy pace
Although Warsh is hawkish, he is also considered a "moderate rate cutter." If he chooses to gradually lower interest rates and slowly reduce the balance sheet after taking office, market panic may ease, and Bitcoin could see a corrective rebound.
Conversely, if he pushes for aggressive balance sheet reduction, the cryptocurrency market will face sustained pressure.
3. Long-term focus on institutional capital trends
If BlackRock executive Reed (another candidate) unexpectedly gets elected, since he is publicly optimistic about Bitcoin and has pushed for a spot ETF, it could directly boost market confidence and drive Bitcoin's short-term surge.
However, the current likelihood of this is very low.
If Warsh is elected (high probability): closely monitor the $80,000 support level; if it breaks, consider short-term hedging; if it holds, wait for a rebound opportunity after sentiment stabilizes.
If an unexpected candidate emerges: if Reed is elected, watch for short-term long opportunities; if other candidates are elected, be wary of significant market volatility. #下任美联储主席会是谁？ $BTC
