Hi everyone!
Yesterday Bitcoin got hit hard: price dropped from 90,000 to 83,200, wiping out almost the entire weekly recovery attempt back into the 92,000 zone.
As a reminder, this risk scenario was mentioned in advance:
📌 Post from 28/01:
“As long as price hasn’t returned to the main watch zone at 92,000+ (marked with a red circle), the downside continuation scenario toward 84,000 and lower remains more than realistic.”
📌 Post from 26/01:
“I expect continuation toward stop 3 at 84,200, unless we see strong institutional buying, ETF inflows, or any major hawkish news.”
What’s happening now
- At this point, I confirm a daily close / hold below the long-term trendline, which increases the probability of a deeper correction.
- All stop-losses around 84,200 have been swept — this was the 3rd and final stop zone previously marked on the chart.
New correction levels
- 73,800 (Level 4)
A major stop-loss concentration zone for those who started building positions since early April 2025.
A historically significant level with multiple clean touches.
- 52,900 (Level 5)
Another historically important level.
Matches the measured move target of the flag pattern highlighted on the chart.
➡️ This is now my main scenario.
Bullish scenario (unchanged)
The bullish scenario remains the same:
✅ any reclaim and hold above the long-term trendline, with a return into the main watch zone at 92,000+.
Important note (Fibonacci)
Also watch 57,900 — this level aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, measured across the entire growth cycle from January 2023 to October 2025.
This is a key zone to consider in the broader context — Fibonacci levels often work stronger than flag targets and horizontal levels.
Have a great day everyone! 🍄
⚠️ Disclamer
This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset.
Always manage your risk, use proper position sizing, and make your own decisions.
