Speaking of which: "Warsh's water withdrawal brings a cold wind, the monthly line hangs in the air and the big pie is urgent. The dead cross is approaching and the thunder sounds, plan well to maintain the foundation."
Family members, good morning, noon, and night to everyone. Welcome to 【Pharmacist's Daily Finance】. I am the pharmacist. Today's market not only has a 'refreshing' macro aspect, but the technical aspect has also lit up a 'red light'. The new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, nominated by Trump, not only wants to shut down the money printing machine but also wants to drain the water from the pool (tapering). On this night, gold and silver first collapsed in respect, and Bitcoin also fell to an alarming extent. But today, the pharmacist wants to remind everyone in particular that compared to the excitement in the news, the technical patterns on the charts are sending out a very dangerous signal. We have two days left to close the month, this juncture may determine the life and death of the next six months. Come on, like first and then watch, making a million a year, let's get started!
First order: the 'life and death speed' of the cryptocurrency sector and the 'technical red light'
First of all, we must conduct a deep CT scan for the cryptocurrency sector. Macro-wise, Warsh's 'tapering for rate cuts' policy is a major bearish signal because he wants to withdraw dollar liquidity, which directly undermines the logic of Bitcoin's rise. But more critically, combined with the exclusive technical analysis provided by family members, the current candlestick chart is simply dancing on the edge of a cliff:
1. Monthly level 'ghost gate': There are only two days left to close the month, everyone is closely watching the position of 86,690 (monthly EMA21). The current price is around 83K, if it doesn't close above in two days, it will be the first time since the rise from 25,500 that it closes below EMA21. What does this mean? The last time this happened was in May 2022 when the price was at 34,800, and then it plummeted to 16,000. Although we can't carve the boat to seek the sword, this historical mirror is too frightening, the necessary caution must be maximized.
2. Weekly level 'dead cross warning': The weekly chart also looks bad. EMA21 and EMA55 are about to form a dead cross. Moreover, the support level of the weekly EMA100 is around 86,000, if the weekend closes below this position, it means that the weekly trend is completely ruined.
Pharmacist's conclusion: Macro-wise, there is Warsh's water withdrawal, technically there is a monthly line break and a weekly dead cross. If we can't hold 86K in the next two days, we are very likely to face a long period of volatility, rapid declines, and then oscillation in a 'cold winter scenario'. Don't care whether #Binance saves the market with 1 billion, nor whether Strategy has bought, now is the time to prepare for the worst, and making a trading plan is the way to survive. The last time Strategy started buying was also from over 30,000, they bought all the way down to over 10,000, this is called DCA, so don't just look at what they do, think more about what you should do.
Second order: #黄金 #白银 the 'stampede tragedy'
Next, let's take a look at precious metals. Warsh's strong dollar expectations directly knocked gold and silver down. Gold plunged more than 10% in a single day, setting a record for decades; silver was even more tragic, falling 30%. The logic is simple: although Warsh wants to cut rates, he is essentially hawkish and wants to defend the dollar's credibility. Previously, everyone bought gold and silver betting that the dollar would collapse, but now this logic has been refuted in the short term. Plus, the speculative positions were too heavy (RSI was already 90), once breaking key levels, it will trigger a stampede-like stop loss. Pharmacist's comment: Don’t rush to catch the bottom. Historically, silver collapses often fall by 80% (although this time may not be the case), but now is definitely not the bottom.
Third order: #微软 the 'passive beating'
In a chorus of wailing, Microsoft is an alternative. The stock price fell nearly 12%, marking the largest drop since 2020. The market criticizes it for spending too much on AI, and the growth of its cloud business has also slowed. But Morgan Stanley jumped in to say: This is an opportunity! Microsoft's cloud business hasn't broken 40% growth, it's not that no one is buying, it's that there are no GPUs to sell! Its commercial bookings surged 110%, indicating that orders are piling up outside the door. Pharmacist's comment: This drop caused by 'supply-demand imbalance' and 'high capital expenditure' is often institutions washing positions. For long-term funds, this is a victim of mistaken identity.
Fourth order: the 'AI anxiety' of software stocks
Besides the giants, the software sector (Salesforce, Snowflake) has also collapsed and entered a technical bear market. The reason is heartbreaking: the market is worried that AI will smash the jobs of programmers and SaaS software. Since AI can do the work, why would companies still buy software accounts per capita? Pharmacist's comment: The market is re-evaluating software stocks. Only those with deep economic moats and proprietary data can survive, others will be replaced by AI.
Pharmacist's prescription:
"Breaking the moving average prevents severe cold, cash is king to avoid risks."
• Cryptocurrency: The current core task is not to make money, but to survive. Now short positions can't chase the previous low floor, the funding rate is negative, long positions can't be opened - catching flying knives on the left - the technical demand for rebound positions is high, spot can't move, selling? Buying? Neither is right. Focus on the monthly closing price (86,690). If it closes below, be sure to reduce positions and prepare for a long-term battle and defense against quick declines. Don't blindly catch flying knives at this critical moment.
• US stocks: Avoid those software companies that rely solely on 'per capita fees' for profit, focus on hard tech like Microsoft that has been misjudged due to shortages.
• Mindset: Warsh's new policy combined with technical breakdowns has led the market to experience severe deleveraging. Only by preserving capital can one catch the bottom after future fluctuations.
Investing is a practice, you need to understand the macro winds and also pay close attention to the technical waves. I am the pharmacist, see you next time!
📂 Pharmacist's Clinic · Previous Medical Cases:
1. 01/30：Software was thrown out like ice, Apple is urgently warning about chip shortages
2. 01/29：The Fed stands still, the cryptocurrency sector is short of water and soul
