On Monday, U.S. government departments may shut down again, but the crypto market's candlestick chart remains quiet—this time, even a decent panic wave hasn't fully developed.
'Are we shutting down again?' This was my first reaction when I saw the news this morning. Looking at the Kalshi prediction data, most people believe this shutdown will last at most 1-2 days, with the House voting on Monday afternoon, possibly resolving it that evening. A few years ago, such news would have detonated liquidation data, but now Bitcoin is still hovering around $82,000, and altcoins seem too lazy to move.
This reminds me of the long shutdown in 2018 that lasted 35 days—back then, Bitcoin fell 6%, and the market was gloomy. And now, with the same script, the market seems like an old viewer used to reruns: 'It's just a shutdown, it's not like the Federal Reserve collapsed.'
01 Market Evolution Theory: From 'The Wolf Is Coming' to 'The Wolf Is Coming Again'
Do you remember when the market was in a deep bear during the 2018 shutdown? Back then, any slight disturbance could trigger leverage liquidations; Bitcoin fell from $3,800 to $3,500, and although the decline was only 6%, it amplified the despair of the bear market.
But history loves to slap us in the face. The script of the shutdown in 2013 was completely opposite—the government was closed for 16 days, and Bitcoin actually rose by 14%. The reason is simple: at that time, the market viewed the shutdown as a crack in the dollar's credibility, which highlighted Bitcoin's narrative as 'digital gold'.
And now? Shutdowns are no longer a novelty. Since 1976, the U.S. government has shut down 21 times, and in 2025 alone, it experienced a record 43 days of closure. The market is gradually seeing clearly: a shutdown is merely a short-term mute play in the tug-of-war between the two parties, not a collapse of economic foundations.
More crucially, the cryptocurrency market has matured. ETFs, institutional holdings, and macro trading logic have become the norm, and the impacts of a shutdown have been diluted into four paths: risk appetite, liquidity expectations, leverage liquidation, and regulatory delays—yet this time, none of these paths seem completely blocked.
02 The real signals are hidden in 'indifference'.
The current calm in the market is supported by three layers of confidence:
Firstly, the expected duration of the shutdown is short. There is a 79% probability pointing to a quick resolution, and the market can't even be bothered to complete the gaming phase. Compared to the long tug-of-war of 43 days in 2025, this time feels more like a 'technical pause'.
Secondly, the liquidity environment remains unchanged. Although a shutdown may delay the release of economic data (such as CPI, non-farm payrolls), the Federal Reserve's expectations for interest rate cuts are still in place, and the Treasury General Account (TGA) 'reservoir' has not completely run dry. The real lifeblood—funding costs—has not been shaken.
Thirdly, panic has instead become a contrary indicator. The latest data from Santiment shows that current bearish comments on social media far outnumber bullish ones, and fear sentiment has reached a yearly low—historically, such extreme pessimism often heralds a rebound.
But the most intriguing aspect is the market's 'immune response' to negative news. When Powell's hawkish remarks, the Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes, and the government shutdown trifecta all fail to suppress cryptocurrency prices, it indicates that bullish sentiment has become highly concentrated. This consistency itself is the signal I am most worried about.
03 When a shutdown becomes a 'paper tiger', danger may be approaching.
History always repeats itself: every time the government fails, it suppresses cryptocurrency prices in the short term, but in the long term, it reinforces the logic of blockchain's 'decentralized survival'. However, this time, the market didn't even bother with short-term fluctuations—this kind of 'insensitivity' is rather worth being cautious about.
On one hand, if the shutdown truly extends, the potential risks cannot be underestimated: regulatory processes (such as the stablecoin legislation) may be paused, the lack of economic data will exacerbate macro uncertainty, and once leveraged funds withdraw, it can trigger chain liquidations. Currently, Bitcoin has fallen below the support level of $83,000, and if it fails to hold $80,000, it may dip to the range of $75,000 or even $71,000.
On the other hand, the market's indifference to negative news may mask deeper vulnerabilities. In November 2021, when Musk's tweets could no longer disturb the market, many thought Bitcoin was invincible—only for the FTX collapse to evaporate 80% of its market value. Is today's 'shutdown immunity' repeating the same script?
So don't be fooled by the market's 'calm'. A government shutdown is like a heavy rain; in the short term, those with umbrellas have long gotten used to it; but in the long term, what truly determines whether the road is muddy is whether the foundation is solid after the rain.
The current foundation of the cryptocurrency market is no longer as fragile as it was in 2018, but the 'indifference to negative news' itself is the biggest negative. If even a political stalemate cannot make the market tremble, then the next wave of volatility may only come from a more thorough 'black swan'.
Follow me for more first-hand information and precise points of knowledge about the cryptocurrency world; I will be your navigation in the crypto space, as learning is your greatest wealth!#金银为何暴跌 #下任美联储主席会是谁？ $ETH
