Pancakes, U.S. stocks, and gold suddenly dropped sharply at the same time, which is quite strange; the possible reasons currently include claims of U.S.-Iran geopolitical conflicts, speculation about yen carry trades being unwound, and potential escalation in the U.S.-Canada trade war... These are all just possible 'bearish expectations,' but one thing is certain — that is the 'behavior' exhibited.
BTC fell back down before even reaching 98,000. We have analyzed on-chain investor behavior, where 3-6 month holders chose to exit to preserve capital or minimize losses, leading to an outflow of funds from the market, and the sensitivity of long-term holders increasing, etc. This really illustrates the issue — an unwillingness to take risks and a lack of confidence in the continuation of the market trend is a typical characteristic of low sentiment.
How the market understands macro events to form expectations, I do not know; but inferring 'emotion' through 'behavior' is certain and will not deceive us.
During this time, I have been emphasizing: 'Time is not on the bulls' side!'
But some friends only want to see what they want to see and do not accept information that is unfavorable to their accounts, even if it exists objectively. To this, I can only say: 'If you don’t believe me or don’t get it, I don’t have time to try to convince you, sorry.'
The current BTC price is at the lower edge of the $83,000-$92,000 accumulation zone, turning 3.88 million BTC into a trapped position. The former support zone has instead become a resistance zone, increasing the probability of BTC 'continuing to fill the gap of $72,000-$80,000'.
As of January 29, a total of 8.7 million BTC is in a state of unrealized loss, so if you are holding BTC and still at a loss, there is no shame in it; many institutions are not doing much better than you.
Everything has two sides; although it seems there is significant pressure above, a large part of it is long-term capital layout; as long as these chips hold steady, it will greatly limit the depth of BTC's decline.
From the perspective of capital structure, the options market makers have a Long Gamma structure below $82,000 around $73,000-$78,000; if BTC falls below $82,000, the next support range is likely to be here. This range also coincides with the vacuum area of chips from the above URPD.
I believe this will attract 'demand' to enter the market; after all, for long-term capital, believing that the next round of BTC can reach 150,000, then 70,000 has the expectation of doubling; very cost-effective!