The history of silver has never been sideways: each repricing relies on 'violent completion'
Looking back at the long-term price trend of silver, one repeatedly validated yet often overlooked characteristic can be found: silver rarely completes repricing through long-term sideways movements. Whether in 1980, 2011, or more recent cycles, the price structure has almost always shown a similar pattern of rapid rise, sharp pullback, followed by a prolonged repair phase.
This characteristic is not coincidental, but rather determined by the inherent structure of silver itself. As a commodity that possesses both precious metal and industrial metal attributes, silver often attracts inflation trades, risk appetite funds, and industrial narrative resonance during the trend formation phase, leading to a highly concentrated price increase in a short period. However, once macro variables change, or the funding side begins to deleverage, this cumulative effect can also amplify in the opposite direction, prompting prices to adjust in a more intense manner.
Historical experience shows that silver is not good at 'exchanging time for space'. When prices enter a high expansion range, the market often expects to digest gains through oscillation and consolidation, but the more common path in reality is: through a significant pullback, quickly reshaping the long-short structure. This type of 'violent repricing' is essentially a concentrated release of silver's high volatility attributes.
Therefore, when studying silver's trends, rather than expecting smooth consolidation, it is better to confront its nonlinear characteristics. For silver, intense volatility is not an abnormal state, but rather a normal manifestation of cyclical operations.
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