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Dual Anchor Currency Era: Why Only Gold and Bitcoin Will Survive in the End
I increasingly feel that we are heading towards a strange yet inevitable future. The world is forming two distinctly different trust systems: one based on 'material', gold; the other supported by 'algorithms', Bitcoin.
China continues to increase its gold reserves, this action seems more like preparing a defense in advance. Gold does not depend on any country, nor does it require third-party guarantees; its value comes from the accumulation of time and the common trust of humanity. Meanwhile, the United States is promoting the institutionalization of cryptocurrencies, with frequent interactions between capital and regulatory bodies, and financial giants are all making plans. They are trying to make digital currency the core tool of the new financial system, using new rules to consolidate dominance.
When one country hoards physical assets and another builds computational power infrastructure, the world's monetary order has begun to loosen. The dollar once represented global credit, but now with rising debts, excessive currency issuance, and diminishing trust, the system itself is beginning to show signs of fatigue.
The currency of the future may be underground or in the cloud. Gold remains the most solid store of value in the real world, while Bitcoin is gradually gaining a similar status in the digital realm. One embodies stability and tradition, while the other symbolizes openness and innovation.
I often think that gold connects to the civilizations of the past, while Bitcoin leads to the order of the future. As the credit system of the dollar gradually collapses, humanity is searching for a new anchor point of 'trust'; these two assets may become new pivot points.
This transformation is not a distant fantasy, but a migration that is quietly happening. We are moving from national credit to consensus credit, from printing presses to computational power and time. Yet most people have not realized that they are already standing at the historical watershed.
$BTC
$PAXG
I increasingly feel that we are heading towards a strange yet inevitable future. The world is forming two distinctly different trust systems: one based on 'material', gold; the other supported by 'algorithms', Bitcoin.
China continues to increase its gold reserves, this action seems more like preparing a defense in advance. Gold does not depend on any country, nor does it require third-party guarantees; its value comes from the accumulation of time and the common trust of humanity. Meanwhile, the United States is promoting the institutionalization of cryptocurrencies, with frequent interactions between capital and regulatory bodies, and financial giants are all making plans. They are trying to make digital currency the core tool of the new financial system, using new rules to consolidate dominance.
When one country hoards physical assets and another builds computational power infrastructure, the world's monetary order has begun to loosen. The dollar once represented global credit, but now with rising debts, excessive currency issuance, and diminishing trust, the system itself is beginning to show signs of fatigue.
The currency of the future may be underground or in the cloud. Gold remains the most solid store of value in the real world, while Bitcoin is gradually gaining a similar status in the digital realm. One embodies stability and tradition, while the other symbolizes openness and innovation.
I often think that gold connects to the civilizations of the past, while Bitcoin leads to the order of the future. As the credit system of the dollar gradually collapses, humanity is searching for a new anchor point of 'trust'; these two assets may become new pivot points.
This transformation is not a distant fantasy, but a migration that is quietly happening. We are moving from national credit to consensus credit, from printing presses to computational power and time. Yet most people have not realized that they are already standing at the historical watershed.
$BTC
$PAXG
PINNED
Liquidity Turning Point: The Market's Real Turning Signal
Has anyone recently felt that the momentum of the U.S. stock market is a bit off? Gold and silver have also started to fluctuate violently. Many attribute the reasons to the China-U.S. relationship, which is certainly one of the factors, but I am more concerned about a more core issue: liquidity.
Although the China-U.S. relationship seems to have eased this week and the market appears optimistic again, don't be fooled by appearances; the 'blood circulation' of capital has not actually resumed. Last Friday, I noticed a detail: the banking system is eager to use the Standing Repo Facility (BRF). Normally, banks only use this tool when funds are tight, which indicates a significant problem.
Although the China-U.S. relationship seems to have eased this week and the market appears optimistic again, don't be fooled by appearances; the 'blood circulation' of capital has not actually resumed. Last Friday, I noticed a detail: the banking system is eager to use the Standing Repo Facility (BRF). Normally, banks only use this tool when funds are tight, which indicates a significant problem.
I want to fall in love
I want to find a heartbreaker to fall in love with
After succeeding, just kick me away
Not for anything else, just want this
Heart-wrenching feeling
I'm getting older and want some excitement
Afraid of getting Alzheimer's
I want to find a heartbreaker to fall in love with
After succeeding, just kick me away
Not for anything else, just want this
Heart-wrenching feeling
I'm getting older and want some excitement
Afraid of getting Alzheimer's
Every crowded track you enter, is actually one that others have deliberately made you see.
Those bustling trends and repeatedly amplified opportunities are like striking road signs, guiding you in the same direction.
For example, when precious metals, Nvidia, and TSMC are rising, the news is overwhelming; everyone is buying, and everyone is talking about the future. The rise is portrayed as a consensus, and the consensus is packaged as certainty, leading you to mistakenly believe that as long as you follow, you won't go wrong.
But few remind you that real opportunities often lie outside the most crowded places. By the time you see them, it may already be the moment others are preparing to leave.
The reason the track is crowded is not because it is necessarily correct, but because it is sufficiently eye-catching.
For example, when precious metals, Nvidia, and TSMC are rising, the news is overwhelming; everyone is buying, and everyone is talking about the future. The rise is portrayed as a consensus, and the consensus is packaged as certainty, leading you to mistakenly believe that as long as you follow, you won't go wrong.
But few remind you that real opportunities often lie outside the most crowded places. By the time you see them, it may already be the moment others are preparing to leave.
The reason the track is crowded is not because it is necessarily correct, but because it is sufficiently eye-catching.
The Untold Secret of Silver
Recently, a very interesting phenomenon has appeared in the market that has confused many people:
Gold$XAU and silver$XAG continue to rise, while Bitcoin$BTC is experiencing a pullback. Many people have begun to doubt whether the long-term logic has changed, and some even ask:
Is the era of Bitcoin coming to an end?
Has precious metals taken over everything again?
My view has not changed; it is completely consistent with my previous judgments. Over a sufficiently long time scale, the only assets that will continue to reach new highs are gold and Bitcoin.
Gold$XAU and silver$XAG continue to rise, while Bitcoin$BTC is experiencing a pullback. Many people have begun to doubt whether the long-term logic has changed, and some even ask:
Is the era of Bitcoin coming to an end?
Has precious metals taken over everything again?
My view has not changed; it is completely consistent with my previous judgments. Over a sufficiently long time scale, the only assets that will continue to reach new highs are gold and Bitcoin.
Last October, I reminded everyone to prepare in advance for fan football tokens. At that time, many people did not understand, but the logic is actually very clear.
Tokens like $LAZIO , $PORTO , and $SANTOS have performed relatively steadily during this overall market downturn, and the core reason is that the World Cup will be held in June this year.
The global attention, fan emotions, and topic heat brought by the World Cup will continue to amplify the value expectations of football-related assets. Compared to purely conceptual projects, fan tokens are supported by real events and a large fan base, making them more resilient when the market weakens and easier to embark on an independent trend in advance.
Tokens like $LAZIO , $PORTO , and $SANTOS have performed relatively steadily during this overall market downturn, and the core reason is that the World Cup will be held in June this year.
The global attention, fan emotions, and topic heat brought by the World Cup will continue to amplify the value expectations of football-related assets. Compared to purely conceptual projects, fan tokens are supported by real events and a large fan base, making them more resilient when the market weakens and easier to embark on an independent trend in advance.
If you think Bitcoin dropping to $40,000 is too exaggerated, it means you underestimate the current risks.
When Bitcoin oscillates around $77,000, the market may superficially appear to be merely consolidating at a high level, but it is actually undergoing a deeper repricing process. The price has not collapsed, but it has also lost clear upward momentum; this state is often not a victory for the bulls but rather a signal that the macro environment and capital structure are beginning to dominate the trend. Against this backdrop, viewing a 'worst-case drop to $40,000' as a stress test rather than an emotional prediction aligns more closely with the risk management logic in professional investing.
From a macro perspective, Bitcoin is still viewed by global capital as a high-volatility, liquidity-sensitive risk asset. When the policy rates of major economies remain at relatively high levels for an extended period, the discount rate for capital naturally rises, causing the market's patience for the 'future narrative' to decline. Even though there are signs of inflation cooling, as long as real interest rates remain positive, it is difficult for risk assets to achieve valuation expansion. In such an environment, Bitcoin is no longer just a matter of its own supply and demand but is reassessed within the framework of 'global risk appetite.'
From a macro perspective, Bitcoin is still viewed by global capital as a high-volatility, liquidity-sensitive risk asset. When the policy rates of major economies remain at relatively high levels for an extended period, the discount rate for capital naturally rises, causing the market's patience for the 'future narrative' to decline. Even though there are signs of inflation cooling, as long as real interest rates remain positive, it is difficult for risk assets to achieve valuation expansion. In such an environment, Bitcoin is no longer just a matter of its own supply and demand but is reassessed within the framework of 'global risk appetite.'
Currently, the gold price is around 4800.
From a short-term perspective, I expect there may be a pullback first, with the first support focusing on the 4300 area.
If the pullback trend continues further, the second key support area is around 3800. The above judgment is based on short-term trend expectations.
However, from a medium to long-term perspective, my bullish view on gold remains unchanged, with the year-end target still looking at 6200.
$XAU
From a short-term perspective, I expect there may be a pullback first, with the first support focusing on the 4300 area.
If the pullback trend continues further, the second key support area is around 3800. The above judgment is based on short-term trend expectations.
However, from a medium to long-term perspective, my bullish view on gold remains unchanged, with the year-end target still looking at 6200.
$XAU
The history of silver has never been sideways: each repricing relies on 'violent completion'
Looking back at the long-term price trend of silver, one repeatedly validated yet often overlooked characteristic can be found: silver rarely completes repricing through long-term sideways movements. Whether in 1980, 2011, or more recent cycles, the price structure has almost always shown a similar pattern of rapid rise, sharp pullback, followed by a prolonged repair phase.
This characteristic is not coincidental, but rather determined by the inherent structure of silver itself. As a commodity that possesses both precious metal and industrial metal attributes, silver often attracts inflation trades, risk appetite funds, and industrial narrative resonance during the trend formation phase, leading to a highly concentrated price increase in a short period. However, once macro variables change, or the funding side begins to deleverage, this cumulative effect can also amplify in the opposite direction, prompting prices to adjust in a more intense manner.
Historical experience shows that silver is not good at 'exchanging time for space'. When prices enter a high expansion range, the market often expects to digest gains through oscillation and consolidation, but the more common path in reality is: through a significant pullback, quickly reshaping the long-short structure. This type of 'violent repricing' is essentially a concentrated release of silver's high volatility attributes.
Therefore, when studying silver's trends, rather than expecting smooth consolidation, it is better to confront its nonlinear characteristics. For silver, intense volatility is not an abnormal state, but rather a normal manifestation of cyclical operations.
$XAG
Looking back at the long-term price trend of silver, one repeatedly validated yet often overlooked characteristic can be found: silver rarely completes repricing through long-term sideways movements. Whether in 1980, 2011, or more recent cycles, the price structure has almost always shown a similar pattern of rapid rise, sharp pullback, followed by a prolonged repair phase.
This characteristic is not coincidental, but rather determined by the inherent structure of silver itself. As a commodity that possesses both precious metal and industrial metal attributes, silver often attracts inflation trades, risk appetite funds, and industrial narrative resonance during the trend formation phase, leading to a highly concentrated price increase in a short period. However, once macro variables change, or the funding side begins to deleverage, this cumulative effect can also amplify in the opposite direction, prompting prices to adjust in a more intense manner.
Historical experience shows that silver is not good at 'exchanging time for space'. When prices enter a high expansion range, the market often expects to digest gains through oscillation and consolidation, but the more common path in reality is: through a significant pullback, quickly reshaping the long-short structure. This type of 'violent repricing' is essentially a concentrated release of silver's high volatility attributes.
Therefore, when studying silver's trends, rather than expecting smooth consolidation, it is better to confront its nonlinear characteristics. For silver, intense volatility is not an abnormal state, but rather a normal manifestation of cyclical operations.
$XAG
Silver's Retracement Projection After High-Level Expansion: Key Levels at 60 and 45
Recently, silver prices have been operating in a high range (around 80, subject to the specific quotes of trading instruments). From price behavior observation, the market has shown typical characteristics after trend acceleration: increased volatility, concentrated price increases, and a widening deviation from the mid-term average. Considering silver's historical property of "strong elasticity during the upward phase and deep retracement during the correction phase," this report will define the subsequent trend as an internal retracement after high-level expansion and set key verification ranges accordingly.
From a historical cycle perspective, silver has formed temporary peaks at high levels in both 1980 and 2011, followed by significant retracements and prolonged price corrections. The Silver Thursday in 1980 showed that, against the backdrop of rising leverage and trading crowding, silver was extremely sensitive to changes in liquidity. This experience suggests that when silver is in a phase of high-level expansion, its price response to reversals in macro variables will be significantly amplified.
On the fundamental side, silver possesses both precious metal and industrial metal attributes. In recent years, industrial demand, especially from the photovoltaic and electronics-related industrial chains, has become an important marginal increment. The industrial attribute not only strengthens the continuity of trend markets but also increases silver's retracement elasticity under economic expectations.
Based on the above structure, this report sets two key levels:
60 serves as the retracement and mean reversion area. When the dollar strengthens, real interest rates rise, or risk assets cool down, the probability of price retracement to this range increases; 45 serves as the structural breakdown and deleveraging pressure test area, which can only be reached if there is a resonance of tightened macro liquidity and capital de-risking.
Failure Condition: If the price completes a full turnover at a high level and hits a new high, with no significant tightening of macro variables, the above retracement projection needs to be adjusted downward or revoked.
$XAG
Recently, silver prices have been operating in a high range (around 80, subject to the specific quotes of trading instruments). From price behavior observation, the market has shown typical characteristics after trend acceleration: increased volatility, concentrated price increases, and a widening deviation from the mid-term average. Considering silver's historical property of "strong elasticity during the upward phase and deep retracement during the correction phase," this report will define the subsequent trend as an internal retracement after high-level expansion and set key verification ranges accordingly.
From a historical cycle perspective, silver has formed temporary peaks at high levels in both 1980 and 2011, followed by significant retracements and prolonged price corrections. The Silver Thursday in 1980 showed that, against the backdrop of rising leverage and trading crowding, silver was extremely sensitive to changes in liquidity. This experience suggests that when silver is in a phase of high-level expansion, its price response to reversals in macro variables will be significantly amplified.
On the fundamental side, silver possesses both precious metal and industrial metal attributes. In recent years, industrial demand, especially from the photovoltaic and electronics-related industrial chains, has become an important marginal increment. The industrial attribute not only strengthens the continuity of trend markets but also increases silver's retracement elasticity under economic expectations.
Based on the above structure, this report sets two key levels:
60 serves as the retracement and mean reversion area. When the dollar strengthens, real interest rates rise, or risk assets cool down, the probability of price retracement to this range increases; 45 serves as the structural breakdown and deleveraging pressure test area, which can only be reached if there is a resonance of tightened macro liquidity and capital de-risking.
Failure Condition: If the price completes a full turnover at a high level and hits a new high, with no significant tightening of macro variables, the above retracement projection needs to be adjusted downward or revoked.
$XAG
Late Night News
Silver has fallen from a high of 121 to 78 in 2 days
Cumulative decline of about 35.5%
$XAG
Silver has fallen from a high of 121 to 78 in 2 days
Cumulative decline of about 35.5%
$XAG
Late Night News
Gold has fallen from a high of 5600 to 4700 within 2 days
Cumulative decline of about 16.1%
$PAXG $XAU
Gold has fallen from a high of 5600 to 4700 within 2 days
Cumulative decline of about 16.1%
$PAXG $XAU
In the past 60 years, gold has experienced 3 major bull markets.
The first round from 1970 to 1980 increased by 23 times.
The second round from 2001 to 2012 increased by 6 times.
The average duration of the past two gold bull markets was 10-11 years.
Now this round started in 2018,
it has only been 7 years so far.
How much longer do you think it will last?
$PAXG $XAU $XAG
The first round from 1970 to 1980 increased by 23 times.
The second round from 2001 to 2012 increased by 6 times.
The average duration of the past two gold bull markets was 10-11 years.
Now this round started in 2018,
it has only been 7 years so far.
How much longer do you think it will last?
$PAXG $XAU $XAG
Internationally renowned precious metal investor, James Turk believes:
Silver is currently in the early stages of an epic long-term bull market. A true silver bull market only officially starts after the price breaks through $50. Not long ago, the gold-silver ratio was still as high as 100:1, but has now fallen to 50:1, yet this level is still unsustainable. Historically, when silver was used as currency, the gold-silver ratio maintained around 16:1 for a long time, and it also returned to this ratio at the peak of the speculative bubble in 1980.
However, this time is different from 1979-1980; the core force driving silver's rise is not speculation, but physical demand. The physical market is gradually taking over the pricing power from the paper market, and ultimately, the price can only be determined by the relationship between physical supply and demand.
In the short term, if the gold-silver ratio drops to 30:1, under the assumption of a gold target price of $5800, the silver price would be around $195, which is a completely reasonable target for the year.
From a longer-term perspective, if the long-term valuation of gold is around $11000, with a gold-silver ratio of 30:1, the silver price would be around $365; if it is 20:1, it could reach $550, and it is even possible to see a situation below 20:1, as happened in 1980. From the perspective of resources and supply-demand, the reserves of silver in the crust and its annual production are only about 10 times more than gold, but its industrial demand in fields like photovoltaics, electronics, and AI is exploding, giving it both monetary attributes and industrial consumption attributes.
This round of market will not be a straight line upward; the process will inevitably be accompanied by severe corrections, but the direction is clear.
In 1979-1980, the 'fair value' of silver was only about $19, yet it eventually surged to $50; if the fair value during this cycle is in the range of $300-$500, its long-term upward potential remains extremely considerable. This is a crazy era, but it is also an era driven by real supply and demand.
Silver is currently in the early stages of an epic long-term bull market. A true silver bull market only officially starts after the price breaks through $50. Not long ago, the gold-silver ratio was still as high as 100:1, but has now fallen to 50:1, yet this level is still unsustainable. Historically, when silver was used as currency, the gold-silver ratio maintained around 16:1 for a long time, and it also returned to this ratio at the peak of the speculative bubble in 1980.
However, this time is different from 1979-1980; the core force driving silver's rise is not speculation, but physical demand. The physical market is gradually taking over the pricing power from the paper market, and ultimately, the price can only be determined by the relationship between physical supply and demand.
In the short term, if the gold-silver ratio drops to 30:1, under the assumption of a gold target price of $5800, the silver price would be around $195, which is a completely reasonable target for the year.
From a longer-term perspective, if the long-term valuation of gold is around $11000, with a gold-silver ratio of 30:1, the silver price would be around $365; if it is 20:1, it could reach $550, and it is even possible to see a situation below 20:1, as happened in 1980. From the perspective of resources and supply-demand, the reserves of silver in the crust and its annual production are only about 10 times more than gold, but its industrial demand in fields like photovoltaics, electronics, and AI is exploding, giving it both monetary attributes and industrial consumption attributes.
This round of market will not be a straight line upward; the process will inevitably be accompanied by severe corrections, but the direction is clear.
In 1979-1980, the 'fair value' of silver was only about $19, yet it eventually surged to $50; if the fair value during this cycle is in the range of $300-$500, its long-term upward potential remains extremely considerable. This is a crazy era, but it is also an era driven by real supply and demand.
Silver: An epic long-term bull market that has just begun
An internationally renowned precious metals investor, James Turk, has said
Silver is currently in the early stages of an epic long-term bull market.
A true silver bull market does not begin now, but is officially launched only after the price breaks above $50.
1. Gold-silver ratio: Structural regression is happening
Not long ago, the gold-silver ratio reached as high as 100:1
It has currently fallen back to 50:1
But 50:1 is still unsustainable
Historical comparison:
During the historical period when silver was used as currency, the gold-silver ratio was stable at 16:1 for a long time
At the peak of the speculative bubble in 1980, the gold-silver ratio returned to this level
Silver is currently in the early stages of an epic long-term bull market.
A true silver bull market does not begin now, but is officially launched only after the price breaks above $50.
1. Gold-silver ratio: Structural regression is happening
Not long ago, the gold-silver ratio reached as high as 100:1
It has currently fallen back to 50:1
But 50:1 is still unsustainable
Historical comparison:
During the historical period when silver was used as currency, the gold-silver ratio was stable at 16:1 for a long time
At the peak of the speculative bubble in 1980, the gold-silver ratio returned to this level
I went skiing and the gold price rose directly from 4900 to 5200 at $XAU
This has reimbursed me for a lifetime of spending on tea eggs.
This has reimbursed me for a lifetime of spending on tea eggs.
Gold: In the next 2 years, it will reach unimaginable heights
As global monetary policies continue to ease, geopolitical risks escalate, and inflationary pressures remain high, gold is gradually moving towards its historic new highs. It is no longer just a safe-haven asset but the focal point of global capital repricing.
Against the backdrop of the declining purchasing power of the dollar and central banks around the world continuously increasing their gold reserves, we are witnessing a brewing financial storm. As the only tangible asset not constrained by credit risk, gold will undergo an unprecedented reassessment of its value.
In the next 2 years, gold prices will not only break past historical highs but may even challenge the limits of market imagination. When trust breaks down and asset bubbles burst, people will ultimately return to the most primitive and reliable values.
$PAXG $XAG $XAU
As global monetary policies continue to ease, geopolitical risks escalate, and inflationary pressures remain high, gold is gradually moving towards its historic new highs. It is no longer just a safe-haven asset but the focal point of global capital repricing.
Against the backdrop of the declining purchasing power of the dollar and central banks around the world continuously increasing their gold reserves, we are witnessing a brewing financial storm. As the only tangible asset not constrained by credit risk, gold will undergo an unprecedented reassessment of its value.
In the next 2 years, gold prices will not only break past historical highs but may even challenge the limits of market imagination. When trust breaks down and asset bubbles burst, people will ultimately return to the most primitive and reliable values.
$PAXG $XAG $XAU
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