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分享一些关于加密与区块链的市场观察与想法，欢迎理性交流。Sharing market observations and ideas on crypto and blockchain. Always open to thoughtful discussions.
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Dual Anchor Currency Era: Why Only Gold and Bitcoin Will Survive in the End
I increasingly feel that we are heading towards a strange yet inevitable future. The world is forming two distinctly different trust systems: one based on 'material', gold; the other supported by 'algorithms', Bitcoin.
China continues to increase its gold reserves, this action seems more like preparing a defense in advance. Gold does not depend on any country, nor does it require third-party guarantees; its value comes from the accumulation of time and the common trust of humanity. Meanwhile, the United States is promoting the institutionalization of cryptocurrencies, with frequent interactions between capital and regulatory bodies, and financial giants are all making plans. They are trying to make digital currency the core tool of the new financial system, using new rules to consolidate dominance.
When one country hoards physical assets and another builds computational power infrastructure, the world's monetary order has begun to loosen. The dollar once represented global credit, but now with rising debts, excessive currency issuance, and diminishing trust, the system itself is beginning to show signs of fatigue.
The currency of the future may be underground or in the cloud. Gold remains the most solid store of value in the real world, while Bitcoin is gradually gaining a similar status in the digital realm. One embodies stability and tradition, while the other symbolizes openness and innovation.
I often think that gold connects to the civilizations of the past, while Bitcoin leads to the order of the future. As the credit system of the dollar gradually collapses, humanity is searching for a new anchor point of 'trust'; these two assets may become new pivot points.
This transformation is not a distant fantasy, but a migration that is quietly happening. We are moving from national credit to consensus credit, from printing presses to computational power and time. Yet most people have not realized that they are already standing at the historical watershed.
$BTC
$PAXG
I increasingly feel that we are heading towards a strange yet inevitable future. The world is forming two distinctly different trust systems: one based on 'material', gold; the other supported by 'algorithms', Bitcoin.
China continues to increase its gold reserves, this action seems more like preparing a defense in advance. Gold does not depend on any country, nor does it require third-party guarantees; its value comes from the accumulation of time and the common trust of humanity. Meanwhile, the United States is promoting the institutionalization of cryptocurrencies, with frequent interactions between capital and regulatory bodies, and financial giants are all making plans. They are trying to make digital currency the core tool of the new financial system, using new rules to consolidate dominance.
When one country hoards physical assets and another builds computational power infrastructure, the world's monetary order has begun to loosen. The dollar once represented global credit, but now with rising debts, excessive currency issuance, and diminishing trust, the system itself is beginning to show signs of fatigue.
The currency of the future may be underground or in the cloud. Gold remains the most solid store of value in the real world, while Bitcoin is gradually gaining a similar status in the digital realm. One embodies stability and tradition, while the other symbolizes openness and innovation.
I often think that gold connects to the civilizations of the past, while Bitcoin leads to the order of the future. As the credit system of the dollar gradually collapses, humanity is searching for a new anchor point of 'trust'; these two assets may become new pivot points.
This transformation is not a distant fantasy, but a migration that is quietly happening. We are moving from national credit to consensus credit, from printing presses to computational power and time. Yet most people have not realized that they are already standing at the historical watershed.
$BTC
$PAXG
The U.S. is starting to drop "alien" related news.
Usually, this level of PR move isn't just for entertainment; it's to divert attention from the real big plays coming up.
Do you think it's paving the way for "Trump's meeting in China"?
Or is it an early cover-up for an economic crash?
Usually, this level of PR move isn't just for entertainment; it's to divert attention from the real big plays coming up.
Do you think it's paving the way for "Trump's meeting in China"?
Or is it an early cover-up for an economic crash?
Human greed chasing profits
Will periodically overextend the market
This means that destruction is an inevitable part
The so-called super cycle is just a naive illusion
Currently, we are in the bubble acceleration phase
Will periodically overextend the market
This means that destruction is an inevitable part
The so-called super cycle is just a naive illusion
Currently, we are in the bubble acceleration phase
World Cup football fan tokens are gearing up for a stronger bullish attack
$PSG $ASR $PORTO
$PSG $ASR $PORTO
This world goes all out to stop you from "waking up"
To prevent you from becoming an independent thinker,
awakened, and strong
It's safe to say they've laid down an intricate web of traps
They use "education" to cement your mindset,
"consumption" to drain your future,
"entertainment" to numb your senses,
and "morality" to restrain your hands and feet.
To prevent you from becoming an independent thinker,
awakened, and strong
It's safe to say they've laid down an intricate web of traps
They use "education" to cement your mindset,
"consumption" to drain your future,
"entertainment" to numb your senses,
and "morality" to restrain your hands and feet.
Let's talk about the recent Fed interest rate decision that wrapped up early this morning, along with the key points from Powell's press conference, and the market analysis for crypto, gold, and stocks.
1. The benchmark interest rate remains unchanged at 3.5%–3.75%, but there's growing division within the Fed, with 4 dissenting votes, marking the highest number since 1992.
Previously dovish members have now only supported a 25 basis point cut instead of the expected 50. Additionally, three others have retained a loose monetary stance, indicating that hawkish sentiment within the Fed is stronger than ever.
The likelihood of the Fed continuing down this preventative rate-cutting path is diminishing. Once this news dropped, U.S. stocks, crypto, and gold all took a dive.
2. Powell, during the press conference, unusually described inflation as "high" rather than the previous "slightly elevated."
This suggests that even Powell's tone is shifting towards hawkish, further reducing the chances of the Fed pursuing a conventional rate-cutting approach.
3. Powell stated that he will remain a Fed governor after his term ends, with no set timeline for departure.
But there’s actually a lot of room for maneuvering here.
Although he claims his continuation is to uphold the Fed's independence and emphasizes that he won’t become a "shadow chairman," as long as he's around, it will pose challenges for the new chair in pushing for rate cuts, accelerating balance sheet reduction (anti-QE), and rebuilding monetary discipline, which will also prolong the transition of policy.
This point actually leans bullish. When Powell released this intention, the market responded with a rebound.
This interest rate decision
On the surface, it appears to be a standstill
In reality, hawkish sentiment is stronger than before
On the other hand, Powell's continuation as a governor
Is itself a significant dovish signal.
The core conclusion is that inflation isn't going down, making conventional rate cuts increasingly difficult, and the probability of the Trump team's Plan B scenario is rising significantly.
1. The benchmark interest rate remains unchanged at 3.5%–3.75%, but there's growing division within the Fed, with 4 dissenting votes, marking the highest number since 1992.
Previously dovish members have now only supported a 25 basis point cut instead of the expected 50. Additionally, three others have retained a loose monetary stance, indicating that hawkish sentiment within the Fed is stronger than ever.
The likelihood of the Fed continuing down this preventative rate-cutting path is diminishing. Once this news dropped, U.S. stocks, crypto, and gold all took a dive.
2. Powell, during the press conference, unusually described inflation as "high" rather than the previous "slightly elevated."
This suggests that even Powell's tone is shifting towards hawkish, further reducing the chances of the Fed pursuing a conventional rate-cutting approach.
3. Powell stated that he will remain a Fed governor after his term ends, with no set timeline for departure.
But there’s actually a lot of room for maneuvering here.
Although he claims his continuation is to uphold the Fed's independence and emphasizes that he won’t become a "shadow chairman," as long as he's around, it will pose challenges for the new chair in pushing for rate cuts, accelerating balance sheet reduction (anti-QE), and rebuilding monetary discipline, which will also prolong the transition of policy.
This point actually leans bullish. When Powell released this intention, the market responded with a rebound.
This interest rate decision
On the surface, it appears to be a standstill
In reality, hawkish sentiment is stronger than before
On the other hand, Powell's continuation as a governor
Is itself a significant dovish signal.
The core conclusion is that inflation isn't going down, making conventional rate cuts increasingly difficult, and the probability of the Trump team's Plan B scenario is rising significantly.
Global Asset Risk Rating Observation
US and Taiwanese stocks are at historical highs, with the rally concentrated in a few heavyweight stocks. The valuations are high, and in the environment of elevated interest rates, this is considered high risk. However, short-term support is still provided by liquidity expectations and capital flow.
Gold is deemed medium to high risk, as prices are already at elevated levels. The demand for safe-haven assets and geopolitical risks are mostly priced in, combined with persistent high real interest rates and a strong dollar, which limits upside potential. Although central banks continue to buy, providing some support, the overall trend shows high-level volatility.
The crypto market is viewed as medium risk; it has already experienced significant corrections. After the leverage has been cleared, the structure has improved, but there may still be a possibility of a "final dip."
US and Taiwanese stocks are at historical highs, with the rally concentrated in a few heavyweight stocks. The valuations are high, and in the environment of elevated interest rates, this is considered high risk. However, short-term support is still provided by liquidity expectations and capital flow.
Gold is deemed medium to high risk, as prices are already at elevated levels. The demand for safe-haven assets and geopolitical risks are mostly priced in, combined with persistent high real interest rates and a strong dollar, which limits upside potential. Although central banks continue to buy, providing some support, the overall trend shows high-level volatility.
The crypto market is viewed as medium risk; it has already experienced significant corrections. After the leverage has been cleared, the structure has improved, but there may still be a possibility of a "final dip."
At 8:30 PM tonight
The United States will announce the CPI data for March
First, from the perspective of the importance of trading data
In the current situation where geopolitical conflicts still play a dominant role
The importance of CPI data, as well as its timeliness and functionality in feedback on inflation, is more crucial than non-farm payrolls and PCE data. It is vital for the trajectory of the stock market, cryptocurrency, and gold. The CPI data for March is the first data point since the Gulf War geopolitical crisis when oil prices surged, making it extremely significant for understanding the inflation situation.
However, this time the data is different from previous forecasts. Currently, there is no need to look at the final result; it has already been predetermined that the tone is bearish, just a matter of whether it adds insult to injury or just a slight hit.
The United States will announce the CPI data for March
First, from the perspective of the importance of trading data
In the current situation where geopolitical conflicts still play a dominant role
The importance of CPI data, as well as its timeliness and functionality in feedback on inflation, is more crucial than non-farm payrolls and PCE data. It is vital for the trajectory of the stock market, cryptocurrency, and gold. The CPI data for March is the first data point since the Gulf War geopolitical crisis when oil prices surged, making it extremely significant for understanding the inflation situation.
However, this time the data is different from previous forecasts. Currently, there is no need to look at the final result; it has already been predetermined that the tone is bearish, just a matter of whether it adds insult to injury or just a slight hit.
Never be too attached to gains and losses
Do not feel disheartened because of a few unfortunate events
And do not feel proud because of a few strokes of good luck
Extend the time dimension, and the trajectory of life will still return to a person's true level; it won't differ much.
Smaller mistakes, saying a few wrong words, buying a few wrong items, wasting some money, these small fluctuations in the life curve will be pulled back more quickly.
The only thing to care about is your true level; those occasional mistakes should be ignored as soon as possible. $BTC
Do not feel disheartened because of a few unfortunate events
And do not feel proud because of a few strokes of good luck
Extend the time dimension, and the trajectory of life will still return to a person's true level; it won't differ much.
Smaller mistakes, saying a few wrong words, buying a few wrong items, wasting some money, these small fluctuations in the life curve will be pulled back more quickly.
The only thing to care about is your true level; those occasional mistakes should be ignored as soon as possible. $BTC
The path of investment
The clearer you are, the more niche it becomes
The more niche it is, the more profit it yields
The lonelier it gets, the more money you make
When you find your thoughts becoming clearer
And resonate less and less with most people
You are about to start dominating the investment market.
The clearer you are, the more niche it becomes
The more niche it is, the more profit it yields
The lonelier it gets, the more money you make
When you find your thoughts becoming clearer
And resonate less and less with most people
You are about to start dominating the investment market.
What is the essence of the investment market?
Isn't it just the realization of perception?
Most people will lose money
Not because of bad luck
But because their judgments are the same as 90% of the people in the market
And the market
Has always been a place where the majority gives money to a minority
If you resonate with most people
Then you are the one who gives money away
Isn't it just the realization of perception?
Most people will lose money
Not because of bad luck
But because their judgments are the same as 90% of the people in the market
And the market
Has always been a place where the majority gives money to a minority
If you resonate with most people
Then you are the one who gives money away
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