Btc

$BTC The Logic of Bargain Hunting and Bear Market Strategies Under Weakness

The current Bitcoin market is showing significant weakness, with the ahr999 index dipping near 0.4, reaching an extreme bargain hunting range, which is on par with the first entry into the bargain hunting line stage in June 2022. If the previous trend is mechanically replicated, BTC theoretically still has a 40% decline, targeting 47,000, but this round lacks the core conditions of the deep bear market of 2022, and blindly seeking a sword by carving a boat is inadvisable.

The deep bear market of 2022 was due to BTC significantly deviating from its valuation, the credit explosion of FTX, the mining machine shutdown price being breached, and mainstream altcoins experiencing over 90% extreme retracement, resulting in a resonance of multiple negative factors. This round of the market has four key differences:

1. The entire bull market was moderate, ahr999 did not effectively break through the fixed investment line 1, valuations did not show severe bubbles, and there was no foundation for deep bubble squeezing;

2. ETFs have become a core new variable, with on-site funds at the level of 50 billion USD having an average cost of 84,000-86,000, and the current price is already at a floating loss; without systemic credit events, BTC is unlikely to operate below this cost for a long time;

3. There is currently no risk of credit explosion at the exchange level, lacking black swan events to trigger extreme drops;

4. The retracement of mainstream altcoins is only 70%-80%, not reaching the “despair level” adjustment of a deep bear market, and market panic has not been fully released.

Based on this, the operational strategy for this round of the bear market is clear and definite:
✅ BTC is the only core asset suitable for medium to large fixed investments; altcoins can only serve as high-risk bets in a bear market and do not have long-term holding value;
✅ The mining machine shutdown price range of 60,000-65,000 is the core execution point for disciplined fixed investment and should be gradually laid out;
✅ Without significant black swan events, the probability of BTC falling below 50,000 is extremely low.

It is worth paying close attention to the fact that BTC.D (Bitcoin market cap ratio) trending higher for the long term may become the norm in the future. The diversion of funds from altcoins in 2017 and 2021 is essentially a phase result of excessively elevated market risk appetite; in the next cycle, funds will be more inclined to avoid the risk of air coins and concentrate on BTC core assets. This also means that this round of the bear market is very likely to be the last significant bear market for the crypto market.

The current core operational guideline: ammunition should be reserved for the real deep bear bottom, rather than being consumed by short-term emotional fluctuations; the long bull trend of Bitcoin is no longer far away.
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