February 4, 2026
Ethereum hit a new low last night, with the lowest point reaching 2100 USD. I suddenly thought about the period from September to October when I saw Ethereum about to break 5000. At that time, I was full of confidence and planned to gradually reduce my holdings before reaching 10000, but the reality was a harsh slap in the face, as it didn't even touch 5000 USD. Now, the price of Ethereum has already fallen below the halving line, with the maximum decline approaching 60%, and Bitcoin's maximum decline has also exceeded 30%. It's clear that the four-year cycle law is playing out again. The only good news is that with each new bull and bear cycle, the maximum decline is getting smaller.
Looking at the prices of other altcoins, including some so-called mainstream coins, a decline of over 90% seems no longer unusual. This is a typical characteristic of a bear market; altcoin prices are down to a tenth, and some have even dropped by 99%. The crazy candlesticks from the bull market now resemble a grandmother going down the stairs. Reflecting back, I had set a plan at the beginning of last year to clear most positions by September-October, but when the bull market frenzy truly arrived, Ethereum's price did not reach my target, which made me more optimistic about the market. This expectation prevented me from taking enough profits at the highs, which may be a weakness of human nature; overcoming it is quite difficult. Of course, I also clearly remember telling everyone multiple times at that time: 'Do not add positions; only consider finding opportunities to reduce positions.'
Objectively speaking, it is almost impossible to experience a short-term bull market rebound; the only hope is whether we can see a decent rebound trend. The recent market has already begun a new round of decline, which is due to large holders being forced to liquidate or reduce leverage. In the past few days, the decline of Ethereum is closely related to Yili Hua's Trend Research fund being forced to sell Ethereum because he took on leverage through cyclical loans. During the process of Ethereum's plunge, he had to sell Ethereum, which also accelerated its decline. Additionally, that friend who has always been bullish on Ethereum has liquidated over ten million dollars during this wave of Ethereum's downward trend. Every bear market is like this; there must be large holders, institutions, or even trading platforms that have to make sacrifices to truly usher in new vitality.
Of course, regretting previous actions excessively is not very meaningful; what matters more is the present. Currently, the overall market trend is still downward, but since the decline has already been significant, the overall cost-effectiveness has certainly emerged. Of course, for some altcoins, their fate is to go to zero. Considering that the market is not likely to reverse upward in the short term, I would suggest switching to a dollar-cost averaging approach in the coming months. In fact, over the past few months, it has been the same idea: using grid trading or dollar-cost averaging to buy at the bottom, so that during the decline, we can acquire as many low-priced chips as possible. Yes, in the next six months, our strategy will again focus on acquiring low-priced chips! But don't worry, I will always be here with you.
Thank you for your attention and likes.
