Neutral Scenario for the RBA: despite the tougher tone and risk of a hike in March, the decision remains data-dependent. The market still sees May as the base scenario.

On February 5, Westpac's Chief Economist Luci Ellis suggested that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) might be compelled to implement a second consecutive interest rate hike in March. According to Jin10, the RBA became the first major monetary authority to raise rates this year on Tuesday. Previously, traders and economists widely anticipated that the RBA would take further action at its May meeting following the release of first-quarter inflation data. For most market observers, the threshold for action next month is considered high. Ellis, who previously served as the RBA's Assistant Governor, stated in an interview on Wednesday, "I cannot rule out the possibility of consecutive rate hikes in March." Although her core prediction remains a rate hike in May, she added, "If the data flow between now and the March meeting shows stronger momentum, consecutive hikes could occur." Ellis noted, "If conditions roughly align with our expectations, I believe they have reason to maintain rates until May. However, I also observed that the Governor clearly stated in the press conference that their projected inflation trajectory is unacceptable. They wish to reduce inflation more swiftly."