Bitcoin briefly fell below US$72,000 on Thursday morning during the Asian trading session, hitting its lowest level in nearly 16 months. As the sell-off deepened, market traders' predictions on Polymarket quickly adjusted their expectations—and data showed a rather bleak outlook for the short term, although long-term optimism remains.
The real-money Polymarket contract shows the market is wavering between holding US$70,000 as the lower boundary and hoping for an annual profit of US$100,000.
February Outlook: US$70,000 as a Key Threshold
February Bitcoin price contracts on Polymarket, with 24 days left and volume nearly US$1.78 million only on the US$70,000 target, reveal a clear story.
The US$70,000 contract surged to a 74% probability—up 65%—making it the most traded target this month. Expectations for increases plummeted: the US$85,000 contract fell 61% to 29%, while US$90,000 held at 12% and US$95,000 only 7%.
On the downside, the US$65,000 contract fell 13% to 39%, while US$60,000 held at 19%. The probability of falling below US$55,000 is in the single digits. The predicted price range for February is US$65,000–US$85,000, with US$70,000 being the most likely point.
2026 Annual Contract: Still Bullish, but Starting to Weaken
Polymarket's long-term contracts provide a more detailed picture. The US$100,000 level has a 55% probability but has dropped 29%, while US$110,000 is at 42% and also fell 29%. This decline is quite significant compared to just a few weeks ago, when traders were still expecting the 2025 rally to continue.
The US$65,000 contract for 2026 rose 24% to 83% with volume above US$1 million—the highest currently—indicating traders are focusing more on downside protection than speculation on the upside. At the peak, probabilities sharply declined: US$130,000 at 20%, US$140,000 at 15%, and US$250,000 near 5%.
At the time of publication, Bitcoin was trading around US$73,199, after briefly dropping below US$72,000 on Thursday morning. The token has fallen 16% since the beginning of the year and about 40% from the all-time high of US$126,000 in October 2025.
Many factors are converging: geopolitical tensions are rising, data gaps remain from the 43-day US government shutdown last fall, and the hawkish nomination of the Fed Chair is strengthening the US dollar.
Technical damage is quite severe. Over US$5.4 billion in liquidations have occurred since the end of January, causing open interest to drop to the lowest level in nine months. The US Bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) has seen capital outflows nearly all of the last three weeks, with outflows of US$817 million on January 29, US$509 million on January 30, and US$272 million on February 3, only interspersed by an inflow of US$561 million on February 2. Total net assets across all Bitcoin spot ETFs plummeted from over US$128 billion in mid-January to US$97 billion.
The Fear and Greed Index for crypto has sharply dropped to 12—entering the 'Extreme Fear' zone and its lowest since November 2025. Meanwhile, the price of gold has soared past US$5,000 per ounce, indicating a significant shift to safe haven assets.
Key Takeaways
Polymarket data provides a real-time picture of how traders betting their money are positioning themselves. February expectations center around US$65,000–US$85,000 with almost no chance of recovering to US$95,000.
The annual contracts are still looser, with a thin majority still hoping Bitcoin touches US$100,000 in 2026. However, that confidence is slowly weakening. For now, the US$70,000 figure is on everyone's mind.