0x胖达老爹

#美联储会议 $BNB Today during the day, there is a high probability of fluctuations or downward movement, with a very low probability of an increase.

At 3 AM, the Federal Reserve confirmed a 25 basis point rate cut. I looked at the BNB candlestick chart, which first saw a rapid rise and then a drop, typical of a "good news fully priced in" trend. By the time I got up to check the market, there was a slight rebound, briefly reaching 900u. I attempted to open a long position, but it quickly fell again, and I immediately stopped out.

This led to some reflections, which can be considered a half-hearted "after the fact" analysis. At least during the day today, it should primarily be characterized by fluctuations or downward movement. Looking solely at candlestick indicators is clearly insufficient; one must also consider the underlying logic.

First, after the Federal Reserve confirmed the rate cut, the short-term rise followed by a drop formed an inverted "V" shape, proving that large funds also believe that good news has been fully priced in. Funds did not enter the market, resulting in a rise followed by a drop.

Then we come to today during the day (which is also when Wall Street is resting). Without large funds participating, there will hardly be large trading volumes during the day unless there is a profitable opportunity. By profitable opportunity, I mean when contracts have accumulated a significant amount of funds, regardless of direction, a breakout can lead to substantial profits.

Finally, I checked the liquidation index for contracts and found that the amount of funds accumulated on both the long and short sides near the price range is not significant, making it unworthy to deploy capital for a breakout in either direction.

Therefore, I assume that during the day, in the absence of liquidity, trading will primarily be conducted by retail investors or robots, and it is highly likely to be characterized by fluctuations or downward movement. Thus, contracts should be shorted. Currently, looking at the 15-minute candlestick chart, the resistance level is at 900, and one should not short above this price. In the case of a downward scenario, the 4-hour bottom at 870 has relatively strong support, and one might consider taking profit or going long within this price range. As for the evening, as Wall Street awakens, we will need to observe further.

Note that the above is just a personal opinion and may not be accurate; it is for reference only. The purpose of writing this is to document and form a set of reference experience templates based on various situations, assumptions, and judgments for future use.

What is that saying again? — "History does not simply repeat itself, but it always rhymes with similar endings."

Is Sun Ge sincere?

Who can explain! It's been a year and I haven't seen him make any money! Why can someone like this still be a KOL!

If I don't sell you on the spot, how can you cut me?

$BNB Everyone give some advice, what's the situation recently? I entered with over a thousand, and it dropped to over eight hundred. Should I cut losses, or buy more at a low position?
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$BTC
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#熊市预警 Bitcoin $BTC fell again last night, once dropping to around 94000. Prior to this, although all analysts were predicting that with the U.S. government ending the shutdown, the market would see a short-term rise, and with the U.S. government resuming operations, important economic indicators would resume updates reducing uncertainty, and including expectations of interest rate cuts, the overall market would welcome medium to long-term benefits. However, with the end of the U.S. government shutdown, U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies continued to decline, and last night saw another drop. Although I am reluctant to admit it, a bear market may be imminent, and my reasons are as follows:

First, after 1011, market liquidity is severely insufficient, with over 20 billion USD in liquidations causing the most severe damage to market makers, and the consequences of this event have not yet fully manifested.

Second, there has been a continuous outflow of funds from Bitcoin ETFs, which is also why Bitcoin has dropped in the past few days while altcoins have not fallen much. The reason these institutions are selling off is closely related to 1011; these institutions originally entered the market for "safe-haven assets," but ended up becoming "high-risk assets."

Third, the Federal Reserve has begun to express different voices regarding interest rate cuts, with the probability of a rate cut in December falling below 50%. It is worth noting that this probability was above 70% just a week ago.

Fourth, Bitcoin has reached the shutdown price near miners; if the price does not return above 100,000 within a month, aside from strong miners holding on, other miners will likely sell Bitcoin, causing further declines.

Therefore, regardless of the circumstances, keep a close watch on the Bitcoin shutdown price line; the longer the fluctuations around 96000 last, the greater the risk actually becomes. I believe this will be the key price range for the market to completely turn into a bear market.

Spot trading can begin to build positions in batches below 96000, and if trading contracts, one must be extremely cautious, ensuring sufficient margin and strictly setting stop-loss levels. Under the premise of insufficient liquidity, you cannot determine whether the black swan of 1011 will visit again.

No, I'm not dead! Why are so many people saying I died? You guys are really too mean, I just didn't tweet for a day and you spread rumors that I died 😡

The Evolution of Purchasing Power of 1 BNB Coin

$BNB broke a thousand, becoming the first platform coin with four digits, rising from $0.15 in 2017 to $1000 in 2025, an increase of 667 times over 8 years. Including launchpool and airdrop earnings, it has surpassed a thousand times.