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Bitcoin faces widespread speculation about a potential plunge to $35,000 by December 2026. Technical analysts are pushing back hard against this bearish narrative with compelling data that suggests the floor sits much higher.
The cryptocurrency currently trades around $86,000, down from its recent peak above $126,000. This 31% correction has sparked intense debate about how low Bitcoin could actually fall in this cycle.
Historical Patterns Point to Higher Support
According to PhilakoneCrypto on X, bear markets follow predictable timelines. "All bear markets have lasted roughly 365 days exactly from the top to the very bottom in 2014, 2018, and 2022," the analyst noted. Historical drawdowns ranged between 78% and 86% from peak values.
However, Sykodelic told his 62,000 X followers that predictions of a Bitcoin crash to $35,000 represent "absolute rubbish." The analyst emphasized a critical factor: retracements require corresponding expansion phases.
"For Bitcoin to retrace 75% it actually has to fully expand, and this cycle, it just did not do that," Sykodelic explained on X. The monthly Relative Strength Index barely touched overbought territory for the first time in history. Previous cycles pushed deep into oversold bands during expansion phases.
The 2017 cycle saw Bitcoin surge 160x before its eventual correction. Yet even that massive rally never breached the lower monthly Bollinger Band during the subsequent bear market. This cycle's expansion proved far weaker by comparison.
Bollinger Bands currently place the lower support level at $55,000. Bitcoin has never broken below this technical indicator on monthly timeframes throughout its entire history. The mid-level band where price currently hovers mirrors the 2019 setup precisely.
"Basically, absolute worst case scenario and if this is a big bad bear... if we close this monthly candle below the mid line then we could be expecting a maximum bottom of $55k," Sykodelic stated on X.
Liquidity Shift Creates Bullish Setup
The Federal Reserve's recent policy change adds another layer to the Bitcoin bull case. CryptosR_Us highlighted on X that quantitative tightening just ended, calling it "THE BIG CATALYST."
Tom Lee noted the significance of this monetary policy shift. The Fed stopped its largest liquidity drain since 2022. When QT ended previously, markets rallied 17% within three weeks.
Bitcoin operates as a liquidity-sensitive asset. The end of Fed tightening typically triggers capital flows into risk assets before broader market participants recognize the shift.
Eljaboom pointed out on X that liquidity models currently price Bitcoin at nearly $200,000 while spot trades above $80,000. "The last time Bitcoin traded this far below fair value was during COVID panic, the FTX meltdown, and the 2018 capitulation bottom," the analyst wrote.
This valuation gap suggests significant underpricing relative to available market liquidity. Each historical instance of similar divergence preceded substantial price recoveries.
Expert Consensus Builds Around $55K Floor
Jeff Ko, Chief Analyst at CoinEx exchange, disputed even the $55,000 bottom scenario. He argued that the traditional four-year cycle structure is breaking down as Bitcoin becomes increasingly institutionalized.
"I do not expect another 70%–80% drawdown from all-time highs," Ko stated. Market depth, ETF participation, and a broader investor base suggest future corrections will prove shallower and more orderly compared to previous cycles.
His bear-case scenario places Bitcoin revisiting the $65,000 to $68,000 range rather than testing lower support levels.
Augustine Fan, head of insights at SignalPlus, outlined a more cautious view contingent on support zones. He identified the $72,000 to $75,000 range as critical support. A breakdown below this area could trigger cascading liquidations with unknown consequences for leveraged positions.

This Article First Appeared on: https://www.cryptonewslive.org/article/why-bitcoin-cant-crash-to-35k-next

XRP tumbled sharply dropping 7% to $2.05 as institutional selling overwhelmed market support and pushed the digital asset back into November's correction territory.
The breakdown shattered a critical technical level that had held for weeks, igniting fears of further declines.
According to ChartNerdTA on X, the token endured seven days of sideways consolidation before the brewing move finally materialized to the downside, dragging XRP back toward its multi-month support zone. The descent came despite robust institutional infrastructure developments and massive exchange-traded fund inflows that reached $666.6 million this month.
The violent sell-off caught traders off guard as buying pressure from whale accumulation and shrinking exchange supply failed to counteract the institutional exodus.
Volume data revealed the scale of the move, surging to 309.2 million—more than 4.6 times the rolling average—signaling genuine distribution rather than temporary volatility.
Critical Support Level Shattered
The breakdown below $2.16 marked a decisive moment for XRP holders. This price point had functioned as a pivot throughout the past three weeks, making its loss a clear indication that sellers reclaimed control of the market structure.
The token now trades within a descending channel characterized by consecutive lower highs at $2.38, $2.30, and $2.22. Each attempted bounce has produced weaker follow-through, demonstrating increasing bearish dominance.
Momentum indicators show deeply oversold short-term conditions, yet lack sufficient divergence to suggest the corrective wave has completed.
Exchange supply contracted by 45% over the past 60 days, pointing to large-scale accumulation by long-term holders. Whale wallets added 150 million XRP tokens since November 25, even as the recent breakdown unfolded.
This divergence between on-chain accumulation metrics and price action creates an unusual dynamic in the current market environment.
The $2.05 to $2.00 zone represents the final line of defense for bulls. Losing this psychological floor would expose the November demand band stretching between $1.80 and $1.87.
Multiple intraday retests of $2.05 showed buyers defending the level, with each test accompanied by volume spikes exceeding 3 million tokens. However, no confirmed reversal pattern has emerged.
Derivatives Market Signals Intensifying Pressure
ETF demand proved insufficient to absorb the selling wave as broader crypto benchmarks weakened and market liquidity thinned.
The new 21Shares TOXR listing contributed to this month's substantial inflow figures, yet short-term flows turned sharply bearish despite expanding institutional access.
Price action unfolded rapidly as XRP fell from $2.21 to $2.05 in a steep 7.2% decline. The most aggressive selling materialized after the $2.16 support level gave way, triggering cascading liquidations into the session close.
Volume confirmation arrived as the metric jumped 464% above the daily average, underscoring intense distribution activity.
Hourly candles revealed a descending channel structure with progressively lower highs and tightening range behavior. Multiple recovery attempts near $2.12 failed, indicating persistent selling pressure from larger participants.
Buyers repeatedly stepped in at $2.05 to absorb dips, but lacked sufficient momentum to reclaim the broken support threshold.
Traders now face a binary outcome scenario. Holding $2.05 becomes critical as a breakdown would directly expose the $1.87 to $1.80 support band.
Alternatively, reclaiming $2.16 with conviction would invalidate the current bearish structure and potentially signal renewed accumulation.
The technical setup requires monitoring for bullish divergence on hourly RSI and MACD indicators as potential early reversal signals.
A high-volume reclaim of the $2.12 to $2.16 range would confirm that accumulation forces are regaining control.
Until that occurs, the path of least resistance remains downward as sellers maintain structural advantage.
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This Article First Appeared on: https://www.cryptonewslive.org/article/xrp-crashes-7-as-institutional-exodus-triggers-sell-off

Yearn Finance suffered a devastating security breach on November 30, draining approximately $9 million from its yETH liquid staking pool through an infinite token minting vulnerability.
The incident resulted in losses totaling $9 million, with $8 million extracted from the stableswap pool and $0.9 million from the yETH-WETH stableswap pool on Curve.
The attack executed in a single transaction allowed the exploiter to generate an astronomical number of tokens and drain the entire pool.
According to @yearnfi on X, the protocol immediately launched an investigation into the incident while confirming that Yearn Vaults, both V2 and V3 versions, remained completely unaffected by the breach.
The team activated withdrawal support for yETH positions, enabling holders to convert their balances back to ETH through the platform's withdrawal system.
Security firm PeckShieldAlert reported on X that the exploit involved creating a near-infinite quantity of yETH tokens, which depleted the pool in one swift transaction.
Blockchain data reveals the attacker transferred approximately 1,000 ETH, valued at roughly $3 million, through Tornado Cash mixer to obscure the transaction trail.
Mathematical Flaw Enables Massive Token Generation
The vulnerability stemmed from a critical error in the pool's smart contract code that manages the invariant calculation.
As detailed by @ILIA_0x on X, the attack exploited a mathematical logic error in the state update mechanism of the weighted stableswap pool.
The contract stored a stateful variable called packed_pool_vb to track the virtual balance product, updating it incrementally after each swap for gas efficiency.
However, the swap function contained a fundamental flaw when adjusting this product term. The code correctly multiplied by the numerator but completely omitted the required division by the denominator.
This missing division operation injected a multiplication factor of approximately 10^36 into the stored state, causing the virtual balance product to explode to an astronomically high value.
When the attacker subsequently called the add_liquidity function, the contract's Newton's method solver converged on a massive total supply figure, minting 2.35 × 10^38 yETH tokens for the exploiter.
With quintillions of LP tokens now in possession, the attacker rightfully claimed 100% of the pool's underlying assets, including wstETH, rETH, and sfrxETH, according to the contract's broken logic.
Protocol Response and Security Measures
Yearn confirmed a comprehensive post-mortem investigation is underway in partnership with SEAL 911 and ChainSecurity, noting the hack exhibits complexity levels comparable to the recent Balancer exploit.
The team emphasized that no other Yearn products utilize similar code to the compromised contract.
The attacker deployed several smart contracts minutes before executing the exploit, which self-destructed immediately following the theft to complicate forensic analysis.
PeckShieldAlert identified the exploiter's address as 0xa80d...c822, which currently holds cryptos valued at approximately $6 million.
Blockchain security experts point to this incident as evidence of escalating sophistication in DeFi attacks.
The exploit demonstrates how stateful mathematical operations in complex AMM designs can create catastrophic vulnerabilities when even single operations are incorrectly implemented.
The breach serves as a reminder that storing results of complex product calculations for incremental updates carries significant risk.
Errors accumulate permanently, and dimensional mismatches in weighted mathematics can break solver convergence bounds entirely.
Yearn Finance previously experienced an $11 million exploit in 2021 affecting its yDAI vault, though that incident resulted in the attacker obtaining only $2.8 million. In December 2023, the protocol reported a faulty script that eliminated 63% of a treasury position, though user funds remained secure.
The current investigation continues as the team works to determine the full scope of the vulnerability and implement safeguards preventing similar incidents across the DeFi ecosystem.
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This Article First Appeared on: https://www.cryptonewslive.org/article/yearn-finance-loses-9m-in-infinite-mint-attack

The UK's Serious Fraud Office has launched its first major cryptocurrency investigation following the collapse of Basis Markets, a digital asset scheme that raised $28 million from investors before shutting down in 2022.
According to @UKSFO on X, two men have been detained on suspicion of fraud and money laundering as part of the investigation into Basis Markets. The arrests took place on November 20 during coordinated operations in London and West Yorkshire.
Investigators executed searches at residential properties in Herne Hill and near Bradford with support from the Metropolitan Police and West Yorkshire Police. The two suspects, one in his thirties and another in his forties, face allegations of multiple fraud and money laundering offenses.
Basis Markets operated through two fundraising rounds in late 2021. The scheme sold non-fungible tokens in November 2021 and conducted a second fundraiser in December 2021, positioning the collected funds as backing for a crypto hedge fund.
The project abruptly informed investors in June 2022 that operations would cease due to proposed US regulatory changes. This marked the beginning of concerns among participants who had contributed substantial amounts to the venture.
Expanding Enforcement Capabilities
The SFO disclosed additional funding specifically allocated to build crypto asset-recovery capability, signaling a shift in how UK authorities approach digital asset crimes.
This investigation represents a departure from previous years when cryptocurrency fraud cases typically fell under local police jurisdiction without specialized resources.
Nick Ephgrave, Director of the Serious Fraud Office, emphasized the agency's commitment to pursuing individuals who exploit cryptocurrency to defraud investors. He described the arrests as an important step in the ongoing investigation and urged anyone with information to come forward.
Solicitor General Ellie Reeves characterized fraud as a destructive crime that undermines business confidence and harms communities. She pledged full support for the SFO's efforts to combat cryptocurrency fraud and protect consumers.
Investigation Details and Public Appeal
The SFO has issued a public appeal requesting investors who participated in Basis Markets to provide information about the scheme.
The agency seeks details including payment confirmations, participation terms, and any communications with the project organizers.
Individuals with relevant information can contact the SFO at BasisMarkets@sfo.gov.uk with their name, telephone details, and a brief description GOV.UK of what they know about the investment scheme.
The investigation focuses on both the initial fundraising activities and the subsequent movement of capital. Authorities are treating the case with the same seriousness applied to traditional financial fraud investigations involving comparable amounts.
This marks a significant development in UK crypto regulation enforcement. The coordinated nature of the raids and the involvement of multiple police forces demonstrate the government's determination to address digital asset fraud systematically.
The timing of the investigation comes after more than three years since Basis Markets ceased operations. The delay between the project's collapse and formal arrests suggests investigators needed substantial time to trace cryptocurrency transactions and gather evidence.
Both arrested individuals remain in custody pending further investigation. The SFO has not disclosed formal charges at this stage, and the inquiry continues to progress through established legal channels.
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This Article First Appeared on: https://www.cryptonewslive.org/article/sfo-arrests-two-in-28m-crypto-scheme

XRP price action has entered a critical phase, trapping traders in a series of false breakouts as the digital asset compresses toward the apex of a prolonged triangle pattern.
The cryptocurrency has generated significant confusion among market participants, with fake signals triggering liquidations and forcing spot investors to reconsider their positions.
According to CW8900 on X, the asset is causing confusion even in the latter stages of convergence. The analyst noted that XRP is creating fake breakouts that liquidate high leverage positions while prompting spot investors to abandon their holdings.
However, the direction will be determined before the end of the week, with sub-indicators pointing toward a potential rise.
Make-or-Break Thresholds Emerge as Decision Point Nears
EGRAG CRYPTO on X outlined straightforward rules for traders navigating the current price structure. A close above $2.60 would push the price above the Fibonacci 0.5 level, signaling bullish momentum though not complete safety.
A decisive close above $3.40, positioned above the Fibonacci 0.888 level, would confirm super bullish conditions and signal a full recovery.
On the downside, a close below the 21 EMA would indicate severe weakness. The analyst emphasized a no-nonsense approach, stating that price leads while emotions follow. The message highlighted clear thresholds without ambiguity, providing traders with definitive markers for position management.
Current market dynamics show traders caught between conflicting signals as fake breakouts test conviction levels.
Leveraged positions face particular vulnerability during this compression phase, with each false move triggering cascading liquidations that amplify volatility.
The convergence point approaches rapidly, forcing a resolution that will likely produce substantial directional movement.
Historical Patterns and Supply Dynamics Point Higher
ChartNerdTA on X identified a bullish cross formation on the weekly Stochastic RSI indicator while XRP sits in oversold territory. The analyst referenced historical precedent, noting that the last two major bullish cross prints in 2025 generated a 600% move followed by a 130% advance.
The pattern raises questions about whether another significant pump awaits on the horizon.
The same analyst also observed that XRP supply on exchanges is declining while the asset remains within a 12-month trading range. This behavior typically signals reaccumulation before a continued breakout higher, suggesting that patient accumulation may be occurring despite the confusing price action at the triangle apex.
Weekly indicators suggest underlying strength despite the choppy surface conditions, though the path forward remains contested until price breaks definitively from the triangle structure.
Market participants now watch the identified levels closely as XRP approaches a decisive moment.
The combination of declining exchange supply, oversold weekly indicators, and clear Fibonacci thresholds provides a framework for interpreting the next major move once the triangle resolves.
Traders maintain focus on the $2.60 and $3.40 levels as critical markers while monitoring the 21 EMA for downside invalidation.
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This Article First Appeared on: https://www.cryptonewslive.org/article/xrp-trapped-in-triangle-fake-breakouts-frustrate-traders