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đđđPolymarket: 93-94% Probability of a 25 Basis
Point Rate Cut
Odds have risen steadily in recent weeks, driven by shifting economic signals like softer job numbers and moderated inflation. On November 26, probabilities surpassed 80%; by December 1, they hit 91%; December 3 saw 87%; and by December 4-5, they reached 93-94%.
â
Weeks prior, expectations were lower due to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's cautious stance on inflation, which tempered rate-cut bets before recent data reversed sentiment. Similar patterns occurred earlier in 2025, such as post-Jackson Hole remarks boosting September odds above 80%.
#Fed
Point Rate Cut
Odds have risen steadily in recent weeks, driven by shifting economic signals like softer job numbers and moderated inflation. On November 26, probabilities surpassed 80%; by December 1, they hit 91%; December 3 saw 87%; and by December 4-5, they reached 93-94%.
â
Weeks prior, expectations were lower due to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's cautious stance on inflation, which tempered rate-cut bets before recent data reversed sentiment. Similar patterns occurred earlier in 2025, such as post-Jackson Hole remarks boosting September odds above 80%.
#Fed
đđđUS Core PCE Holds Steady at 0.2% m/m in September 2025, Supports FED Rate Cuts
The US Core PCE Price Index m/m at 0.2% for September 2025 signals stable but persistent underlying inflation above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with the year-over-year rate at 2.8%, indicating a cooling trend from earlier peaks yet no rapid disinflation.
â
This data suggests moderating price pressures amid a softening economy, including slower consumer spending and a cooling labor market, which could support future Fed rate cuts if trends continue. However, sticky services inflation, especially housing, keeps overall inflation elevated, reinforcing a "higher-for-longer" interest rate stance into 2026.
â
As the Fed's preferred gauge, the steady m/m reading aligns with projections for core PCE to average 2.6% in Q4 2025 before easing further, balancing recession risks against incomplete progress toward the target. Markets reacted positively to the in-line figures, boosting equities without shifting aggressive cut expectations.
#PCE
The US Core PCE Price Index m/m at 0.2% for September 2025 signals stable but persistent underlying inflation above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with the year-over-year rate at 2.8%, indicating a cooling trend from earlier peaks yet no rapid disinflation.
â
This data suggests moderating price pressures amid a softening economy, including slower consumer spending and a cooling labor market, which could support future Fed rate cuts if trends continue. However, sticky services inflation, especially housing, keeps overall inflation elevated, reinforcing a "higher-for-longer" interest rate stance into 2026.
â
As the Fed's preferred gauge, the steady m/m reading aligns with projections for core PCE to average 2.6% in Q4 2025 before easing further, balancing recession risks against incomplete progress toward the target. Markets reacted positively to the in-line figures, boosting equities without shifting aggressive cut expectations.
#PCE
Netflixâs $72 Billion Warner Bros. Deal Creates Streaming Giant
đđđ
Netflixâs $72 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discoveryâs studios and streaming unit is a transformative move in the media landscape. This deal combines Netflixâs vast global reach with Warnerâs iconic content libraries, studios, and production capabilities, creating what could become the worldâs largest media producer and streaming powerhouse.
With this acquisition, Netflix's content catalog will expand from over 17,000 titles to more than 20,000, now including Warnerâs premium properties like HBOâs Game of Thrones, DC films such as Batman, and the Harry Potter franchise. This massive content vault not only boosts Netflixâs subscriber appeal but also strengthens its production pipeline with Warnerâs theatrical blockbusters and studio assets, allowing
Netflix to dramatically scale its original film and TV output.
Netflix already invests $17 billion annually in content creation, producing hundreds of originals each year. Adding Warnerâs studios means Netflix can accelerate this production volume and deepen its IP portfolio, securing a dominant position in streaming entertainment. In comparison, Apple TV+ spends $5-6 billion on a smaller slate of high-budget premium originals aimed at quality and innovation, integrated within Appleâs broader ecosystem strategy rather than direct media profit. While Apple leads in market capitalization due to its technology business, its media
services like Apple TV+ operate more as ecosystem enhancers to drive hardware sales than as standalone revenue giants.
Post-acquisition, Netflix combined with Warnerâs streaming businessâwhich recently
generated $10.3 billion in revenue and $677 million profitâwill overshadow Appleâs media output in both scale and profitability. Netflix gains over 300 million subscribers globally, far larger than Apple TV+âs estimated 40-45 million subscribers. This deal redefines Netflix beyond a streaming service to the dominant full-stack media producer, leveraging volume, IP strength, and studio capabilities to outpace
competitors.
In essence, Netflix is evolving into the largest entertainment studio and streaming platform in the world, turning media into a colossal content engine. Apple remains the biggest company overall by market cap, but Netflixâs acquisition shows how sheer scale and IP depth in media reshape leadership in streaming and content production.
#Media
Netflixâs $72 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discoveryâs studios and streaming unit is a transformative move in the media landscape. This deal combines Netflixâs vast global reach with Warnerâs iconic content libraries, studios, and production capabilities, creating what could become the worldâs largest media producer and streaming powerhouse.
With this acquisition, Netflix's content catalog will expand from over 17,000 titles to more than 20,000, now including Warnerâs premium properties like HBOâs Game of Thrones, DC films such as Batman, and the Harry Potter franchise. This massive content vault not only boosts Netflixâs subscriber appeal but also strengthens its production pipeline with Warnerâs theatrical blockbusters and studio assets, allowing
Netflix to dramatically scale its original film and TV output.
Netflix already invests $17 billion annually in content creation, producing hundreds of originals each year. Adding Warnerâs studios means Netflix can accelerate this production volume and deepen its IP portfolio, securing a dominant position in streaming entertainment. In comparison, Apple TV+ spends $5-6 billion on a smaller slate of high-budget premium originals aimed at quality and innovation, integrated within Appleâs broader ecosystem strategy rather than direct media profit. While Apple leads in market capitalization due to its technology business, its media
services like Apple TV+ operate more as ecosystem enhancers to drive hardware sales than as standalone revenue giants.
Post-acquisition, Netflix combined with Warnerâs streaming businessâwhich recently
generated $10.3 billion in revenue and $677 million profitâwill overshadow Appleâs media output in both scale and profitability. Netflix gains over 300 million subscribers globally, far larger than Apple TV+âs estimated 40-45 million subscribers. This deal redefines Netflix beyond a streaming service to the dominant full-stack media producer, leveraging volume, IP strength, and studio capabilities to outpace
competitors.
In essence, Netflix is evolving into the largest entertainment studio and streaming platform in the world, turning media into a colossal content engine. Apple remains the biggest company overall by market cap, but Netflixâs acquisition shows how sheer scale and IP depth in media reshape leadership in streaming and content production.
#Media
đđđCFTC Announces Spot Crypto Trading on Regulated U.S. Exchanges
On December 4, 2025, Acting Chairman Caroline D. Pham issued Release 9145-25, allowing spot cryptocurrency products, such as Bitcoin, to trade on CFTC-registered futures exchanges for the first time. This permits direct buying and selling, including leveraged positions for retail traders, under federal rules for surveillance, custody, and customer protections, with trading starting December 8.â
From 2013 to 2024, regulators used enforcement actionsâSEC lawsuits classifying many crypto offerings as unregistered securities and CFTC finesâwithout clear guidance for spot trading, which shifted activity to unregulated offshore markets. The 2025 policy provides explicit rules through public consultations and recommendations from the President's Working Group, differing from past restriction-focused approaches.
â
Potential Future Implications
đEnhanced oversight may reduce fraud risks with requirements like KYC and anti-manipulation measures.
â
đRegulated domestic trading could attract institutional funds and support products like spot ETFs.
â
đIntegration of blockchain features, such as tokenized collateral, may expand into derivatives markets.
â
This development introduces regulated spot crypto trading in the U.S., balancing access with safeguards.
#CFTC $BTC $ETH $ZEC
On December 4, 2025, Acting Chairman Caroline D. Pham issued Release 9145-25, allowing spot cryptocurrency products, such as Bitcoin, to trade on CFTC-registered futures exchanges for the first time. This permits direct buying and selling, including leveraged positions for retail traders, under federal rules for surveillance, custody, and customer protections, with trading starting December 8.â
From 2013 to 2024, regulators used enforcement actionsâSEC lawsuits classifying many crypto offerings as unregistered securities and CFTC finesâwithout clear guidance for spot trading, which shifted activity to unregulated offshore markets. The 2025 policy provides explicit rules through public consultations and recommendations from the President's Working Group, differing from past restriction-focused approaches.
â
Potential Future Implications
đEnhanced oversight may reduce fraud risks with requirements like KYC and anti-manipulation measures.
â
đRegulated domestic trading could attract institutional funds and support products like spot ETFs.
â
đIntegration of blockchain features, such as tokenized collateral, may expand into derivatives markets.
â
This development introduces regulated spot crypto trading in the U.S., balancing access with safeguards.
#CFTC $BTC $ETH $ZEC
đđđRetail Wins Big, Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Macy's Beat Expectations
đDollar General (DG)
Dollar General reported strong Q3 2025 earnings on December 3, 2025, with net sales rising 4.6% year-over-year to $10.6 billion and same-store sales up 2.5%. Net income reached $282.7 million, or $1.28 per share, marking a 43.8% increase from the prior year. The company raised its full-year 2025 outlook due to this performance.
â
đDollar Tree (DLTR)
Dollar Tree announced Q3 fiscal 2025 results (quarter ended November 1, 2025) on December 3, 2025, beating expectations with adjusted EPS of $1.21, up 12% year-over-year and above the $1.08 consensus. Net sales grew 9.4% to approximately $4.7 billion, driven by 4.2% same-store sales growth from higher average tickets, while gross margin expanded to 35.8%. Guidance was raised, with full-year adjusted EPS now at $5.60-$5.80 and Q4 sales projected at $5.4-$5.5 billion.
â
đMacy's (M)
Macy's delivered positive Q3 2025 results with revenues of $4.7 billion, edging out Wall Street estimates of $4.6 billion. Earnings per share came in at $0.09, outperforming expectations of a $0.14 loss. The company also increased its full-year 2025 sales forecast following the beat.
â
#USmarket
đDollar General (DG)
Dollar General reported strong Q3 2025 earnings on December 3, 2025, with net sales rising 4.6% year-over-year to $10.6 billion and same-store sales up 2.5%. Net income reached $282.7 million, or $1.28 per share, marking a 43.8% increase from the prior year. The company raised its full-year 2025 outlook due to this performance.
â
đDollar Tree (DLTR)
Dollar Tree announced Q3 fiscal 2025 results (quarter ended November 1, 2025) on December 3, 2025, beating expectations with adjusted EPS of $1.21, up 12% year-over-year and above the $1.08 consensus. Net sales grew 9.4% to approximately $4.7 billion, driven by 4.2% same-store sales growth from higher average tickets, while gross margin expanded to 35.8%. Guidance was raised, with full-year adjusted EPS now at $5.60-$5.80 and Q4 sales projected at $5.4-$5.5 billion.
â
đMacy's (M)
Macy's delivered positive Q3 2025 results with revenues of $4.7 billion, edging out Wall Street estimates of $4.6 billion. Earnings per share came in at $0.09, outperforming expectations of a $0.14 loss. The company also increased its full-year 2025 sales forecast following the beat.
â
#USmarket
đđđLow Jobless Claims Amid Mixed Signals: Fed Holds Steady
The recent drop in initial unemployment claims to 191,000 for the week ending November 29âthe lowest in over three yearsâ signals a resilient labor market with fewer layoffs, but the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) weighs this against mixed signals like manufacturing contraction and private job losses before adjusting rates.
â
Initial claims fell sharply from the prior week's revised 218,000, with continuing claims dipping to about 1.94 million, pointing to stability and reduced extended unemployment. Yet, ADP reported a 32,000 decline in private sector jobs for November, highlighting sluggish hiring amid a "low-hire, low-fire" environment.
â
ISM data shows manufacturing contraction, reflecting supply chain strains, inflation, and trade uncertainties that challenge growth despite low layoffs. The Fed considers these alongside robust claims (four-week average at 214,750) and overall activity to balance its dual mandate on employment and inflation.
â
While strong claims reduce urgency for rate cuts, countervailing factors like ADP losses and ISM weakness give the Fed pause, likely favoring a hold or cautious stance at the next meeting to monitor holistic data. This multifaceted view supports resilience but tempers aggressive easing expectations.
#USJobsData
The recent drop in initial unemployment claims to 191,000 for the week ending November 29âthe lowest in over three yearsâ signals a resilient labor market with fewer layoffs, but the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) weighs this against mixed signals like manufacturing contraction and private job losses before adjusting rates.
â
Initial claims fell sharply from the prior week's revised 218,000, with continuing claims dipping to about 1.94 million, pointing to stability and reduced extended unemployment. Yet, ADP reported a 32,000 decline in private sector jobs for November, highlighting sluggish hiring amid a "low-hire, low-fire" environment.
â
ISM data shows manufacturing contraction, reflecting supply chain strains, inflation, and trade uncertainties that challenge growth despite low layoffs. The Fed considers these alongside robust claims (four-week average at 214,750) and overall activity to balance its dual mandate on employment and inflation.
â
While strong claims reduce urgency for rate cuts, countervailing factors like ADP losses and ISM weakness give the Fed pause, likely favoring a hold or cautious stance at the next meeting to monitor holistic data. This multifaceted view supports resilience but tempers aggressive easing expectations.
#USJobsData
đđđUS Department of Labor Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims
The advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims dropped to 191,000, down 27,000 from the prior week's revised 218,000, marking the lowest since September 24, 2022. The 4-week moving average fell to 214,750, a decrease of 9,500. The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate held steady at 1.3% for the week ending November 22, with insured unemployment at 1,939,000, down 4,000.
â
Unadjusted initial claims totaled 197,221, a sharp decline of 49,419 (-20.0%) from the previous week. The unadjusted insured unemployment rate dropped to 1.1%, with 1,698,312 people, down 81,054 (-4.6%). Compared to the prior year, unadjusted initial claims exceeded 2024's 211,226 for the same week.
â
Initial claims by former federal civilian employees were 1,125 (down 599), and by newly discharged veterans 290 (down 30) for the week ending November 22. Total continued weeks claimed across all programs reached 1,822,491 for the week ending November 15, up 56,776 from the prior week but above 2024's 1,751,491. No states triggered Extended Benefits.
â
States with the highest insured unemployment rates (week ending November 15) included New Jersey and Washington at 2.3%, California and Massachusetts at 2.0%. Largest initial claims increases (week ending November 22) were in California (+7,897), Illinois (+2,845), and Pennsylvania (+2,472); decreases led by Kentucky (-1,107).
#USJobsData
The advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims dropped to 191,000, down 27,000 from the prior week's revised 218,000, marking the lowest since September 24, 2022. The 4-week moving average fell to 214,750, a decrease of 9,500. The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate held steady at 1.3% for the week ending November 22, with insured unemployment at 1,939,000, down 4,000.
â
Unadjusted initial claims totaled 197,221, a sharp decline of 49,419 (-20.0%) from the previous week. The unadjusted insured unemployment rate dropped to 1.1%, with 1,698,312 people, down 81,054 (-4.6%). Compared to the prior year, unadjusted initial claims exceeded 2024's 211,226 for the same week.
â
Initial claims by former federal civilian employees were 1,125 (down 599), and by newly discharged veterans 290 (down 30) for the week ending November 22. Total continued weeks claimed across all programs reached 1,822,491 for the week ending November 15, up 56,776 from the prior week but above 2024's 1,751,491. No states triggered Extended Benefits.
â
States with the highest insured unemployment rates (week ending November 15) included New Jersey and Washington at 2.3%, California and Massachusetts at 2.0%. Largest initial claims increases (week ending November 22) were in California (+7,897), Illinois (+2,845), and Pennsylvania (+2,472); decreases led by Kentucky (-1,107).
#USJobsData
đšđšU.S. Treasury Buys Back $12.5 Billion of its own Debt đšđš
The U.S. Treasury recently executed its largest-ever debt buyback, repurchasing $12.5 billion of its own debt.
This operation is part of an ongoing effort to manage the federal debt more actively through buybacks of outstanding securities, which helps control liquidity and adjust the debt profile. The buyback program has been expanding, with increased frequency and size of buybacks during 2025, reflecting more aggressive debt management amid a high national debt exceeding $35
trillion.
#TreasuryDepartment
The U.S. Treasury recently executed its largest-ever debt buyback, repurchasing $12.5 billion of its own debt.
This operation is part of an ongoing effort to manage the federal debt more actively through buybacks of outstanding securities, which helps control liquidity and adjust the debt profile. The buyback program has been expanding, with increased frequency and size of buybacks during 2025, reflecting more aggressive debt management amid a high national debt exceeding $35
trillion.
#TreasuryDepartment
đđđNovember ISM Data and ADP Job Losses Tilts Fed Toward Cut Amid High Expectations
The recent data from ISM and ADP released this week show mixed signals for the U.S. economy, which will likely influence the Federal Reserve's decision at next week's FOMC meeting amid high expectations for a rate cut.
Key points are:
đISM Manufacturing PMI contracted further to 48.2 in November 2025, marking nine straight months of contraction in manufacturing activity. New orders and employment in manufacturing declined, though production expanded slightly, and prices rose amid tariff concerns.
đISM Services PMI showed continued expansion at 52.6, slightly improved from October, signaling modest growth in the services sector. Employment in services contracted for the sixth month, but business activity and new orders remained in expansion.
đADP reported a decline of 32,000 private sector jobs in November, showing weakness in the labor market. Annual pay rose 4.4% year-over-year, but the employment contraction contrasts with prior months of job growth, indicating caution about labor market health.
How this influences the Fed FOMC decision:
đThe persistent contraction in manufacturing and the overall decline in private sector employment highlight slowing economic momentum and weak labor market conditions.
đThe modest expansion in services and steady price pressures show some underlying resilience but also ongoing challenges like tariffs and supply disruptions.
đGiven these mixed signals and the recent labor market weakness, the Federal Reserve is likely to consider this data as supportive of a cautious stance with potential for a rate cut to stimulate growth and employment.
This data aligns with market expectations of a possible Fed rate cut next week, aiming to support economic expansion amid manufacturing contraction and weakening job growth.
#USJobsData
The recent data from ISM and ADP released this week show mixed signals for the U.S. economy, which will likely influence the Federal Reserve's decision at next week's FOMC meeting amid high expectations for a rate cut.
Key points are:
đISM Manufacturing PMI contracted further to 48.2 in November 2025, marking nine straight months of contraction in manufacturing activity. New orders and employment in manufacturing declined, though production expanded slightly, and prices rose amid tariff concerns.
đISM Services PMI showed continued expansion at 52.6, slightly improved from October, signaling modest growth in the services sector. Employment in services contracted for the sixth month, but business activity and new orders remained in expansion.
đADP reported a decline of 32,000 private sector jobs in November, showing weakness in the labor market. Annual pay rose 4.4% year-over-year, but the employment contraction contrasts with prior months of job growth, indicating caution about labor market health.
How this influences the Fed FOMC decision:
đThe persistent contraction in manufacturing and the overall decline in private sector employment highlight slowing economic momentum and weak labor market conditions.
đThe modest expansion in services and steady price pressures show some underlying resilience but also ongoing challenges like tariffs and supply disruptions.
đGiven these mixed signals and the recent labor market weakness, the Federal Reserve is likely to consider this data as supportive of a cautious stance with potential for a rate cut to stimulate growth and employment.
This data aligns with market expectations of a possible Fed rate cut next week, aiming to support economic expansion amid manufacturing contraction and weakening job growth.
#USJobsData
đđđ Services PMI November 2025 ISM
The November 2025 ISM Services PMI report shows the U.S. services sector expanding steadily with a PMI of 52.6%, indicating ongoing economic growth. Business activity increased along with new orders, while employment contracted slightly but showed signs of improvement. Supply chain delays persisted, influenced by tariffs and a government shutdown, yet prices paid by services organizations eased compared to previous months.
This positive trend points to a modest but stable recovery in services, despite some challenges such as tariffs and labor shortages. Key industries like retail trade, arts, and health care led growth, while construction and transportation faced contractions. Inventory levels returned to expansion, suggesting firms are restocking amid increasing demand.
Overall, the ISM Services PMI indicates continued expansion in the U.S. services economy, contributing positively to GDP growth in late 2025.
#USEconomics
The November 2025 ISM Services PMI report shows the U.S. services sector expanding steadily with a PMI of 52.6%, indicating ongoing economic growth. Business activity increased along with new orders, while employment contracted slightly but showed signs of improvement. Supply chain delays persisted, influenced by tariffs and a government shutdown, yet prices paid by services organizations eased compared to previous months.
This positive trend points to a modest but stable recovery in services, despite some challenges such as tariffs and labor shortages. Key industries like retail trade, arts, and health care led growth, while construction and transportation faced contractions. Inventory levels returned to expansion, suggesting firms are restocking amid increasing demand.
Overall, the ISM Services PMI indicates continued expansion in the U.S. services economy, contributing positively to GDP growth in late 2025.
#USEconomics
đđđ€đVanguard Effect on Crypto??
Vanguard began allowing its brokerage clients to trade select cryptocurrency ETFs and mutual funds, including those holding Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and Solana, on December 2, 2025, reversing its long-standing policy against such volatile assets.
â
This decision opens Vanguard's $9-11 trillion platform to over 50 million clients, driven by sustained retail and institutional demand despite recent crypto market downturns. The firm cited improved ETF liquidity during volatility and maturing operational processes as key factors, while excluding meme coin products. Vanguard emphasized it will not launch its own crypto offerings, aligning with its conservative philosophy.
â
Bitcoin rose about 6% around the US market open on December 2, coinciding with the policy's first trading day and reports of $1 billion in volume for BlackRock's IBIT ETF within the initial 30 minutes. Prices climbed above $86,500-$91,000 amid the rebound from prior slumps, with analysts attributing the jump partly to Vanguard's move signaling broader institutional acceptance. High trading activity in IBIT reflects conservative investors adding modest crypto exposure.
â
#BTCRebound90kNext? $BTC $ZEC $XRP
Vanguard began allowing its brokerage clients to trade select cryptocurrency ETFs and mutual funds, including those holding Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and Solana, on December 2, 2025, reversing its long-standing policy against such volatile assets.
â
This decision opens Vanguard's $9-11 trillion platform to over 50 million clients, driven by sustained retail and institutional demand despite recent crypto market downturns. The firm cited improved ETF liquidity during volatility and maturing operational processes as key factors, while excluding meme coin products. Vanguard emphasized it will not launch its own crypto offerings, aligning with its conservative philosophy.
â
Bitcoin rose about 6% around the US market open on December 2, coinciding with the policy's first trading day and reports of $1 billion in volume for BlackRock's IBIT ETF within the initial 30 minutes. Prices climbed above $86,500-$91,000 amid the rebound from prior slumps, with analysts attributing the jump partly to Vanguard's move signaling broader institutional acceptance. High trading activity in IBIT reflects conservative investors adding modest crypto exposure.
â
#BTCRebound90kNext? $BTC $ZEC $XRP
đđđUnderstanding the Fedâs $13.5 Billion Overnight Repo: A Temporary Liquidity Boost
The Federal Reserve just carried out a large overnight repo operation, injecting about $13.5B of liquidity into the banking system. This sounds huge but itâs crucial to understand that this is a shortâterm operation, not a permanent expansion of the money supply.
â
What actually happens in an overnight ârepoâ is straightforward. The Fed temporarily buys Treasury or agency securities from eligible banks or dealers, with a binding agreement to sell them back, usually the next business day. That transaction gives those firms shortâterm cash (reserves) in exchange for highâquality collateral.
That cash injection helps banks and dealers meet payments, margin calls, and funding needs during periods when money markets feel tight. For that brief window, reserves in the system go up and funding stress is relieved, without the Fed committing to a longâterm change in its policy stance.
â
The key point is that this liquidity is designed to roll off quickly. Because the repo includes a preset ârepurchaseâ the next day (or at the end of a short term), the trade automatically unwinds: the Fed returns the securities, the cash flows back to the Fed, and the extra reserves disappear. The balance sheet impact is temporary unless these operations are repeatedly extended or scaled up.
â
In its current framework, the Fed treats standing overnight repo facilities as a backstop to smooth shortâterm funding markets, not as a stealth version of quantitative easing. The goal is to keep very shortâterm interest rates trading near the Fedâs target range and prevent sudden funding spikes, not to permanently flood the system with new money.
â
So when you see headlines about a multiâbillionâdollar Fed repo injection, itâs more accurate to think of it as an overnight collateralized loan to the banking system rather than a lasting moneyâprinting program.
#Fed
The Federal Reserve just carried out a large overnight repo operation, injecting about $13.5B of liquidity into the banking system. This sounds huge but itâs crucial to understand that this is a shortâterm operation, not a permanent expansion of the money supply.
â
What actually happens in an overnight ârepoâ is straightforward. The Fed temporarily buys Treasury or agency securities from eligible banks or dealers, with a binding agreement to sell them back, usually the next business day. That transaction gives those firms shortâterm cash (reserves) in exchange for highâquality collateral.
That cash injection helps banks and dealers meet payments, margin calls, and funding needs during periods when money markets feel tight. For that brief window, reserves in the system go up and funding stress is relieved, without the Fed committing to a longâterm change in its policy stance.
â
The key point is that this liquidity is designed to roll off quickly. Because the repo includes a preset ârepurchaseâ the next day (or at the end of a short term), the trade automatically unwinds: the Fed returns the securities, the cash flows back to the Fed, and the extra reserves disappear. The balance sheet impact is temporary unless these operations are repeatedly extended or scaled up.
â
In its current framework, the Fed treats standing overnight repo facilities as a backstop to smooth shortâterm funding markets, not as a stealth version of quantitative easing. The goal is to keep very shortâterm interest rates trading near the Fedâs target range and prevent sudden funding spikes, not to permanently flood the system with new money.
â
So when you see headlines about a multiâbillionâdollar Fed repo injection, itâs more accurate to think of it as an overnight collateralized loan to the banking system rather than a lasting moneyâprinting program.
#Fed
đđđJapanese 10-year yields are quietly telling a big story for Bitcoin right now.
Japanâs 10-year government bond yield has surged to around 1.85â1.9%, the highest level since the 2008 era, as markets price in a Bank of Japan rate hike this month with odds around 70â80%. This marks a sharp break from Japanâs long period of nearâzero and even negative yields, signaling that the era of ultraâcheap yen funding is ending.
A large share of global âcarry tradesâ has long been funded in yen, with investors borrowing cheaply in JPY to buy higherâyielding assets, including crypto. As yields and expected policy rates rise, that yen funding becomes more expensive and volatile, forcing leveraged players to cut risk and unwind positions in assets like Bitcoin.
â
Bitcoin is not structurally funded by the yen, but a meaningful slice of speculative BTC exposure sits on top of yenâbased leverage and derivatives. When the yen carry trade comes under pressure, the unwind can hit Bitcoin prices disproportionately, even though BTC itself trades globally in many currencies and on mostly unlevered spot holdings as well.
â
What to watch next:
đFurther moves in Japanâs 10-year yield and BOJ communication into the December meeting.
â
đSigns of stress in yenâfunded strategies: rising funding costs, basis blowâouts, or sharp, synchronized drops across BTC and other highâbeta assets.
đHow resilient spot demand is at key BTC price levels if leveraged JPY flows keep exiting the trade.
â#BTC86kJPShock $BTC
Japanâs 10-year government bond yield has surged to around 1.85â1.9%, the highest level since the 2008 era, as markets price in a Bank of Japan rate hike this month with odds around 70â80%. This marks a sharp break from Japanâs long period of nearâzero and even negative yields, signaling that the era of ultraâcheap yen funding is ending.
A large share of global âcarry tradesâ has long been funded in yen, with investors borrowing cheaply in JPY to buy higherâyielding assets, including crypto. As yields and expected policy rates rise, that yen funding becomes more expensive and volatile, forcing leveraged players to cut risk and unwind positions in assets like Bitcoin.
â
Bitcoin is not structurally funded by the yen, but a meaningful slice of speculative BTC exposure sits on top of yenâbased leverage and derivatives. When the yen carry trade comes under pressure, the unwind can hit Bitcoin prices disproportionately, even though BTC itself trades globally in many currencies and on mostly unlevered spot holdings as well.
â
What to watch next:
đFurther moves in Japanâs 10-year yield and BOJ communication into the December meeting.
â
đSigns of stress in yenâfunded strategies: rising funding costs, basis blowâouts, or sharp, synchronized drops across BTC and other highâbeta assets.
đHow resilient spot demand is at key BTC price levels if leveraged JPY flows keep exiting the trade.
â#BTC86kJPShock $BTC
đšđšFDIC to Release First Stablecoin Licensing Rule Under GENIUS Act by Year-Endđšđš
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) is taking significant steps toward regulating stablecoins in the United States under the GENIUS Act, signed into law in July 2025. Acting Chairman Travis Hill announced that the FDIC plans to publish its first proposed rule by the end of December 2025, which will establish the official application process for banks or their subsidiaries seeking to issue payment stablecoins under federal supervision. This rule focuses on the application framework and is a foundational step toward regulation.
This move marks a transition from preliminary discussions to concrete regulatory implementation. The FDIC is required to oversee stablecoin issuers affiliated with FDIC-supervised banks and will later propose detailed licensing, capital, liquidity, reserve composition, and ongoing supervisory requirements early next year. These prudential rules aim to ensure stablecoins are fully backed one-to-one with safe assets such as U.S. dollars or Treasuries.
While the FDICâs role and the size of the stablecoin issuer universe remain evolving, this framework, created by the GENIUS Act, provides much-needed clarity and legal certainty for issuers while upholding strong consumer protections and financial stability safeguards. Concurrently, the FDIC is considering guidance related to tokenized deposits and continues to promote innovation in digital assets responsibly.
This represents a significant milestone toward modernizing digital payments regulation in the U.S., with more detailed rules expected soon.
#Stablecoins
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) is taking significant steps toward regulating stablecoins in the United States under the GENIUS Act, signed into law in July 2025. Acting Chairman Travis Hill announced that the FDIC plans to publish its first proposed rule by the end of December 2025, which will establish the official application process for banks or their subsidiaries seeking to issue payment stablecoins under federal supervision. This rule focuses on the application framework and is a foundational step toward regulation.
This move marks a transition from preliminary discussions to concrete regulatory implementation. The FDIC is required to oversee stablecoin issuers affiliated with FDIC-supervised banks and will later propose detailed licensing, capital, liquidity, reserve composition, and ongoing supervisory requirements early next year. These prudential rules aim to ensure stablecoins are fully backed one-to-one with safe assets such as U.S. dollars or Treasuries.
While the FDICâs role and the size of the stablecoin issuer universe remain evolving, this framework, created by the GENIUS Act, provides much-needed clarity and legal certainty for issuers while upholding strong consumer protections and financial stability safeguards. Concurrently, the FDIC is considering guidance related to tokenized deposits and continues to promote innovation in digital assets responsibly.
This represents a significant milestone toward modernizing digital payments regulation in the U.S., with more detailed rules expected soon.
#Stablecoins
Bitcoin, OTC Markets, and the Mystery of the Falling Price
đđđ€đ
Bitcoinâs recent price decline, despite strong institutional interest, is confusing at first. However, when we consider the difference between spot and OTC markets, the current market behavior becomes much clearer.
On public exchanges, or spot markets, buyers and sellers trade through an open order book. Any large market order immediately moves the price by using up available sell or buy orders. This is the activity everyone sees on charts in real time. In contrast, OTC trades happen privately between large buyers and sellers, often arranged by specialized desks. These trades take place off-exchange, so even very large orders do not push the publicly visible spot price higher.
I understand that major institutions prefer OTC precisely because they want to avoid moving the market against themselves while accumulating large Bitcoin positions. If a fund tried to buy hundreds of millions of dollars of Bitcoin directly on exchanges, the visible price would spike long before they finished buying. This would increase their average entry cost significantly. By working through OTC desks, they can obtain liquidity from miners, early holders, and other large players without leaving obvious footprints on public order books.
While institutions accumulate through OTC, other forces apply strong downward pressure on the visible price. Short-term holders taking profits, leveraged traders being liquidated, funds rebalancing, and risk-off behavior driven by macroeconomic conditions all create considerable selling on exchanges. When this spot market sell pressure exceeds the net demand visible there, the price fallsâeven if large buyers quietly absorb supply elsewhere.
When people say there is âno liquidity in spot,â they usually mean that order books are thin, so it does not take much selling to push the price down. At the same time, a large share of trading has moved to derivatives markets, where futures and perpetual swaps allow traders to short or hedge without touching spot coins. Liquidations and positioning in these derivatives can pull the spot price down via arbitrage, regardless of OTC accumulation happening in the background.
Given all this, the combination of OTC accumulation, thin spot liquidity, and heavy derivatives and macro influence means that the price can drift or fall even while strong hands are buying. For the price to start trending up sustainably, net demand must appear in the visible market. This means more aggressive spot and ETF buying compared to selling from traders, funds, and miners, alongside healthier leverage and a supportive macro environment. Until these conditions align, institutions can keep building positions quietly without causing the âimmediate pumpâ that many retail traders expect.
Bitcoinâs recent price decline, despite strong institutional interest, is confusing at first. However, when we consider the difference between spot and OTC markets, the current market behavior becomes much clearer.
On public exchanges, or spot markets, buyers and sellers trade through an open order book. Any large market order immediately moves the price by using up available sell or buy orders. This is the activity everyone sees on charts in real time. In contrast, OTC trades happen privately between large buyers and sellers, often arranged by specialized desks. These trades take place off-exchange, so even very large orders do not push the publicly visible spot price higher.
I understand that major institutions prefer OTC precisely because they want to avoid moving the market against themselves while accumulating large Bitcoin positions. If a fund tried to buy hundreds of millions of dollars of Bitcoin directly on exchanges, the visible price would spike long before they finished buying. This would increase their average entry cost significantly. By working through OTC desks, they can obtain liquidity from miners, early holders, and other large players without leaving obvious footprints on public order books.
While institutions accumulate through OTC, other forces apply strong downward pressure on the visible price. Short-term holders taking profits, leveraged traders being liquidated, funds rebalancing, and risk-off behavior driven by macroeconomic conditions all create considerable selling on exchanges. When this spot market sell pressure exceeds the net demand visible there, the price fallsâeven if large buyers quietly absorb supply elsewhere.
When people say there is âno liquidity in spot,â they usually mean that order books are thin, so it does not take much selling to push the price down. At the same time, a large share of trading has moved to derivatives markets, where futures and perpetual swaps allow traders to short or hedge without touching spot coins. Liquidations and positioning in these derivatives can pull the spot price down via arbitrage, regardless of OTC accumulation happening in the background.
Given all this, the combination of OTC accumulation, thin spot liquidity, and heavy derivatives and macro influence means that the price can drift or fall even while strong hands are buying. For the price to start trending up sustainably, net demand must appear in the visible market. This means more aggressive spot and ETF buying compared to selling from traders, funds, and miners, alongside healthier leverage and a supportive macro environment. Until these conditions align, institutions can keep building positions quietly without causing the âimmediate pumpâ that many retail traders expect.
đšđšKey Events to Watch This Week: Earnings Reportsđšđš
This weekâs earnings reports signal crucial insights for the U.S. economy, highlighted by heavyweights in retail and enterprise tech.
Earnings this week,
đSALESFORCE $CRM
đHEWLETT PACKARD ENTERPRISE $HPE
đDOLLAR TREE $DLTR
đDOLLAR GENERAL $DG
đMACYâS $M
đKROGER $KR
Dollar Tree , Dollar General , Kroger , Macyâs , and Salesforce stand out as the key companies to watch. These firms collectively serve millions of American consumers and businesses, making their earnings pivotal gauges of consumer spending, inflation trends, and corporate investment.
The retail giantsâDollar Tree, Dollar General, Kroger, and Macyâsâreflect how everyday Americans are managing their budgets amid economic fluctuations. Dollar stores and grocers reveal consumer shifts toward value shopping and essentials, while Macyâs offers perspective on discretionary spending and middle-income consumer behavior. Meanwhile, Salesforce, as a leading enterprise software provider with broad industry reach, offers vital clues on business investment and digital transformation trends in the U.S.
#TrumpTariffs
This weekâs earnings reports signal crucial insights for the U.S. economy, highlighted by heavyweights in retail and enterprise tech.
Earnings this week,
đSALESFORCE $CRM
đHEWLETT PACKARD ENTERPRISE $HPE
đDOLLAR TREE $DLTR
đDOLLAR GENERAL $DG
đMACYâS $M
đKROGER $KR
Dollar Tree , Dollar General , Kroger , Macyâs , and Salesforce stand out as the key companies to watch. These firms collectively serve millions of American consumers and businesses, making their earnings pivotal gauges of consumer spending, inflation trends, and corporate investment.
The retail giantsâDollar Tree, Dollar General, Kroger, and Macyâsâreflect how everyday Americans are managing their budgets amid economic fluctuations. Dollar stores and grocers reveal consumer shifts toward value shopping and essentials, while Macyâs offers perspective on discretionary spending and middle-income consumer behavior. Meanwhile, Salesforce, as a leading enterprise software provider with broad industry reach, offers vital clues on business investment and digital transformation trends in the U.S.
#TrumpTariffs
đšđšKey Events to Watch This Week: Economic Datađšđš
These events offer essential insights into manufacturing activity, labor market conditions, consumer inflation, and sentiment. Market participants closely watch this data as it shapes economic expectations and Federal Reserve decisions.
đMonday: Manufacturing PMI ; ISM Manufacturing PMI
đTuesday: JOLTS Job Openings. September data
đWednesday: PMI and ISM data; ADP Non-Farm Employment Change November data
đThursday: Initial Jobless Claims
đFriday: Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Inflation ;
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
#USJobsData
These events offer essential insights into manufacturing activity, labor market conditions, consumer inflation, and sentiment. Market participants closely watch this data as it shapes economic expectations and Federal Reserve decisions.
đMonday: Manufacturing PMI ; ISM Manufacturing PMI
đTuesday: JOLTS Job Openings. September data
đWednesday: PMI and ISM data; ADP Non-Farm Employment Change November data
đThursday: Initial Jobless Claims
đFriday: Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Inflation ;
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
#USJobsData
đđđđSilver Surges to $57, Supply Crunch and CME Chaos Exposed
Silver futures (SIUSD) reached $57.163 per ounce, up 8.03% or $4.247 from the prior close, driven by physical supply constraints and macroeconomic factors.
â
đSupply Shortages, China's inventories hit a 10-year low after exports to London, with elevated borrowing costs signaling global tightness.
đFed Rate Cut Expectations, anticipated interest-rate reductions boosted demand for silver as a non-yielding asset.
â
đCME Comex Outage, a data-center failure halted futures trading, shifting price discovery to physical markets and causing a sharp gap-up upon reopening.
#Silver
Silver futures (SIUSD) reached $57.163 per ounce, up 8.03% or $4.247 from the prior close, driven by physical supply constraints and macroeconomic factors.
â
đSupply Shortages, China's inventories hit a 10-year low after exports to London, with elevated borrowing costs signaling global tightness.
đFed Rate Cut Expectations, anticipated interest-rate reductions boosted demand for silver as a non-yielding asset.
â
đCME Comex Outage, a data-center failure halted futures trading, shifting price discovery to physical markets and causing a sharp gap-up upon reopening.
#Silver
đđđKalshi traders now price in an 86% chance of a Fed 25bp rate cut at the December 9-10 meeting, up from under 50% just weeks ago.
â
This surge follows dovish Fed signals, like New York Fed President John Williams flagging employment risks amid cooling inflation.
J.P. Morgan flipped to expecting the cut on Nov 27, citing limited data ahead and recent hawk-to-dove shifts. CME FedWatch aligns closely at ~85%.
Prediction markets like Kalshi reflect real-money bets, often outperforming polls
#USJobsData
â
This surge follows dovish Fed signals, like New York Fed President John Williams flagging employment risks amid cooling inflation.
J.P. Morgan flipped to expecting the cut on Nov 27, citing limited data ahead and recent hawk-to-dove shifts. CME FedWatch aligns closely at ~85%.
Prediction markets like Kalshi reflect real-money bets, often outperforming polls
#USJobsData
đđđCME Futures Trading Halted by CyrusOne Cooling Failure
Trading at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group Inc.) was halted due to a cooling issue at one of its data centers operated by CyrusOne, specifically the CHI2 data center in Aurora, Illinois. The cooling malfunction caused a suspension of futures and options trading across multiple asset classes including currencies, commodities, and equities. CME has confirmed support teams are working to resolve the issue and will update clients on pre-open details as soon as possible.
Regarding the background, CME sold this Aurora, Illinois data center to CyrusOne in 2016 for $130 million and then leased it back under a 15-year lease agreement. This facility spans approximately 428,000 square feet and remains home to CME's electronic trading platform, CME Globex, along with co-location services for their clients. The acquisition was aimed at strengthening CyrusOneâs infrastructure in the financial services market while allowing CME to continue operations at this critical data center location.
The CME Group data center glitch, did not affect cryptocurrency trading, as reports specify halts in currencies, stock futures, commodities, and foreign exchange but omit crypto futures and options.
#future
Trading at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group Inc.) was halted due to a cooling issue at one of its data centers operated by CyrusOne, specifically the CHI2 data center in Aurora, Illinois. The cooling malfunction caused a suspension of futures and options trading across multiple asset classes including currencies, commodities, and equities. CME has confirmed support teams are working to resolve the issue and will update clients on pre-open details as soon as possible.
Regarding the background, CME sold this Aurora, Illinois data center to CyrusOne in 2016 for $130 million and then leased it back under a 15-year lease agreement. This facility spans approximately 428,000 square feet and remains home to CME's electronic trading platform, CME Globex, along with co-location services for their clients. The acquisition was aimed at strengthening CyrusOneâs infrastructure in the financial services market while allowing CME to continue operations at this critical data center location.
The CME Group data center glitch, did not affect cryptocurrency trading, as reports specify halts in currencies, stock futures, commodities, and foreign exchange but omit crypto futures and options.
#future
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