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In March 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) is in a high volatility consolidation phase, with the current price around $68,000–$69,000. Key levels: Support: $66,000–$67,000 (short-term), $62,000–$63,000 (strong support/potential major bottom)
Resistance: $70,000–$72,000 (short-term pressure), $78,000–$80,000 (confirmation of strength)

Most likely trend (highest probability): $63,000–$73,000 price range undergoing repeated tests, institutions buying on the dips + retail panic coexisting, may rebound after 1–2 bottom tests within the month, but difficult to break above $71,000 in one go. A typical 'bear tail/bull eve' ordeal. Secondary possibility: first surge to $71,000–$73,000 then a second drop to test $62,000–$65,000 (final washout).
Low probability: easing geopolitical tensions + massive ETF inflows, directly breaking $80,000 to reach $110,000+ (currently insufficient driving force). In summary: March is highly likely to be a painful bottoming month where institutions quietly accumulate between $66,000–$70,000, while retail fears exit, rather than a month of breakout. A major breakout is more likely in the second or third quarter.

What are your thoughts? Are you considering bottom fishing?
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The four-hour market has experienced a rapid decline and rebound, with repeated battles between bulls and bears. The upper and lower shadows are dense, and the price has not been able to form an effective breakthrough, entering a phase of consolidation. The market is digesting previous fluctuations in a sideways manner, and the indicators are gradually correcting the deviations. Although there has been a slight increase in the short term, showing a relatively strong performance, the key resistance above remains effective, and the trend has not changed. In terms of operations, continue to hold a short position with a rebound strategy, avoid chasing prices, and do not blindly catch falling knives, but rather steadily grasp opportunities within the range. Place orders without hesitation!
Bitcoin: 68500～68750 short, target around 67000,
Ethereum: 2000～2015 short, target around 1900!

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2.25 Ethereum is drawing lines chaotically again

Currently, the market needs to break through 1960 again, which may lead to a stable bullish sentiment before a rapid decline. Due to the chaotic candlestick chart, it's even more important to trade calmly. #比特币回落至63000美元附近

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The two major legendary consensus of Bitcoin have completely collapsed, rewriting the old order of the cryptocurrency world

1. Four-year halving cycle——legendary consensus directly collapses
In the past, the cryptocurrency world recognized the "four-year script" as an iron law: after halving, there would definitely be a surge in 18 months, a big bullish trend in the following year, a peak in the third year, and a bear market in the fourth year. This rhythm has proven reliable and has become the faith of countless investors. However, after the halving in 2024, the market has completely deviated from this pattern, with BTC recording its first negative annual return in 2025, falling about 6% for the year, breaking the historical norm that prices must rise after halving. In just 50 days into 2026, BTC plummeted by 23%, marking the worst start in history, with the market continuing to fluctuate and decline, leveraged funds facing a series of liquidations, and panic spreading. Institutional ETFs rushed to accumulate, crazily draining resources, rendering the marginal effect of halving completely null. BTC has long transformed from a niche crypto asset into a macro asset, with price movements no longer driven by supply and demand cycles but firmly controlled by Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, global liquidity tightening, and sovereign wealth fund allocation rhythms. The once-mythical cycle has completely failed.

2. Chinese New Year red envelope market——Ten-year iron law fails
From 2015 to 2024, BTC recorded gains during the Chinese New Year for 10 consecutive years, with an average increase of 12% and a maximum increase of over 26%. The belief that "Chinese New Year must rise" became the most stable seasonal consensus in the cryptocurrency world, revered by investors as the "red envelope market." However, during the Year of the Snake in 2025, this decade-long record of gains was ruthlessly broken, with BTC falling 2.3%-4% during the Chinese New Year, directly invalidating the iron law. The ten-year myth of rising prices has abruptly come to an end, marking a fundamental shift in market sentiment and capital logic, as traditional seasonal patterns collapse under macro pressures and a new structure dominated by institutions.

The collapse of these two historical consensuses means the complete end of the old cycle and logic in the cryptocurrency world. Future markets will be more closely aligned with the global macro market, as speculative patterns gradually give way to a new paradigm dominated by fundamentals and liquidity.
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