实力技术瓜
主打一个快准狠，瓜哥略维出手就是你的极限。推特：实力技术瓜
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Update on Eth analysis: the short-term price has once again fallen below the low point, reaching around 2100u, and then rebounding again with a pin bar. There are signs of a stop in the decline here, although it is slightly weaker, and the benchmark for the first segment of the major drop should be in the 2050-2080 range, which is normal. Therefore, the current price is still a bit high.
Although there are signs of a stop in the small time frame, there may be a second test of the bottom because the current rebound has not stabilized above the pressure line, and the probability of being pushed down again is quite large. If we judge based on a second bottom test, there are two approaches:
The first approach is that the small time frame touches the pressure line and then tests the support again, but it will not break the previous low. It will test the golden ratio at the 0.382 level, with the price expected around 2120, and then start to rebound. This is usually a standard pattern for a second bottom test.
The second approach is that the small time frame will create a second bottom and directly drop to 2075u, because this position belongs to an effective support line and is also the starting point of the previous rise. This aligns with the low point of the first segment of the drop. Therefore, if we proceed with the second approach, I would consider entering a long position; otherwise, I would wait for the rebound to enter a short position.
Although there are signs of a stop in the small time frame, there may be a second test of the bottom because the current rebound has not stabilized above the pressure line, and the probability of being pushed down again is quite large. If we judge based on a second bottom test, there are two approaches:
The first approach is that the small time frame touches the pressure line and then tests the support again, but it will not break the previous low. It will test the golden ratio at the 0.382 level, with the price expected around 2120, and then start to rebound. This is usually a standard pattern for a second bottom test.
The second approach is that the small time frame will create a second bottom and directly drop to 2075u, because this position belongs to an effective support line and is also the starting point of the previous rise. This aligns with the low point of the first segment of the drop. Therefore, if we proceed with the second approach, I would consider entering a long position; otherwise, I would wait for the rebound to enter a short position.
Update on Btc analysis: The short-term price has tested the support line again, which aligns with my expectations, as the support strength at 69,000 is still quite strong. After the price dipped below 69,000, it recovered, further indicating the strength of the support here. Therefore, at this position, I still anticipate a rebound; if it’s strong, it may touch around 73,000; if weak, it should at least reach 72,000 once. This rebound is likely to have at least a three thousand point increase.
Currently, a bullish wedge pattern is forming on a smaller timeframe. Of course, this surge is merely a rebound; after a brief pullback to induce buying, the probability of continuing to drop is a bit higher. However, the first leg of the decline has temporarily stopped. If you want to take advantage of this rebound, you can wait for a smaller timeframe to test the bottom again, with entry around 69,500-69,000 for a long position. The target can be seen in the 72,000-73,000 range, and then close the long and go short. If it goes up directly, just wait to enter a short position, depending on how the pattern evolves to make further plans.
Currently, a bullish wedge pattern is forming on a smaller timeframe. Of course, this surge is merely a rebound; after a brief pullback to induce buying, the probability of continuing to drop is a bit higher. However, the first leg of the decline has temporarily stopped. If you want to take advantage of this rebound, you can wait for a smaller timeframe to test the bottom again, with entry around 69,500-69,000 for a long position. The target can be seen in the 72,000-73,000 range, and then close the long and go short. If it goes up directly, just wait to enter a short position, depending on how the pattern evolves to make further plans.
Accept imperfection, and then strive to become better.
The small level rebound of the slug is still weak, and it has not been able to break through and stabilize at the lower edge of the triangle, so in the short term, it is estimated that it still needs to test the support. Continue to pay attention to the area around 69,000. However, the 1-hour level has already had a continuous bottom divergence, and if it holds here, it is estimated that there will be at least a rebound of about 3,000 points.
Temporarily adjusting, the rebound just now was too aggressive. At that time, I was thinking of predicting a rebound and left a position for additional purchases, because there was a downward continuation pattern made in the 30-minute chart. I even mentioned in the group that at least it should drop a bit more, expected around 69,800, but I didn't expect that it would drop too much, directly reaching 69,400.
So this is also my small stop-loss position. If it hits that, I will decisively stop-loss. I never hold onto hope; when it hits the stop-loss position, I decisively stop-loss. This is also experience gained from losses. I might hold on a few times by luck, but if I can't hold on once, I'll lose everything. So if you make mistakes and get hit, you have to acknowledge it.
So this is also my small stop-loss position. If it hits that, I will decisively stop-loss. I never hold onto hope; when it hits the stop-loss position, I decisively stop-loss. This is also experience gained from losses. I might hold on a few times by luck, but if I can't hold on once, I'll lose everything. So if you make mistakes and get hit, you have to acknowledge it.
Without a glance, it has started to fall again, and this time I missed the rebound and got hit. Time to slip away!
The shape of the head in Btc is worth sharing. Many people say this is a head and shoulders pattern, which is correct, but it has created a compound head and shoulders pattern. The standard is one head with one shoulder on each side, while this one has 1 head + double left shoulders and double right shoulders. This is also the most common compound head and shoulders bottom shape. You might want to take a note of this, so next time when predicting the top, you'll know what to do.
ETH's short-term movement has formed the simplest symmetrical triangle pattern, and then began to break down and accelerate the decline. However, compared to BTC, it is still slightly stronger. Normally, ETH's low point should be in the range of 2080-2050, but it has only reached around 2150u. The short-term upward trend has turned into a downward trend. Here, it is very likely to form a downward continuation pattern, and after completion, it will probably continue to decline.
The internal structure is expected to form a bearish wedge. If this pattern occurs, the small-scale rebound high point is expected to be around 2257u. After that, it will once again consolidate and begin to accelerate the decline. If it declines again, the target will be the 2080-2050 support area. Therefore, if today's prediction is good, prepare for both long and short positions. I have already entered a long position, planning to take a rebound before closing the long and flipping to short. This is the current thought process, and I will continue to update if there are any changes.
The internal structure is expected to form a bearish wedge. If this pattern occurs, the small-scale rebound high point is expected to be around 2257u. After that, it will once again consolidate and begin to accelerate the decline. If it declines again, the target will be the 2080-2050 support area. Therefore, if today's prediction is good, prepare for both long and short positions. I have already entered a long position, planning to take a rebound before closing the long and flipping to short. This is the current thought process, and I will continue to update if there are any changes.
Update on Btc analysis:
The waterfall may be late, but it won't be absent. The anticipated waterfall has finally arrived on schedule, and after ending an eight-day bullish streak, the first signs of a top appeared. Moreover, the bullish momentum has been continuously weakening, and at that time, the prediction was that it would be a bit stronger and might reach another local high to create a bullish trap; if it was weak, it would just drop directly.
In the afternoon, it was mentioned that the market might start to change around five or six o'clock, most likely downward. If the change occurs earlier, then the news impact won't be as significant. However, the change actually happened around seven or eight o'clock, so the prediction was off by an hour. As long as it drops beforehand, the impact of the early morning news won't be major because, at this critical point, neither interest rate cuts nor hikes are possible; maintaining the status quo is the best choice.
Ultimately, after breaking the top pattern, it began to accelerate downwards, with a drop of nearly four to five thousand dollars, having already broken the ascending channel. This indicates that the recent rise has temporarily come to an end, and a downtrend has begun. Currently, this wave of accelerated decline has reached my predicted first support level near 70,000. From this wave, the drop is quite rapid and aligns with the demand during this period. Next, attention needs to be paid to the current position; the first phase of the accelerated decline has been completed, so this current position is likely to form a downward continuation pattern.
If the smaller timeframe is a bit stronger, it might touch the 72,500-73,000 range. If it is weak, it may accelerate downwards again. If placing orders, it is advisable to set them around 72,500 to continue entering short positions. The current upward trend has now turned into a downtrend, and if it breaks below the 69,000-70,000 support area, the next target will be the 65,000 range.
The waterfall may be late, but it won't be absent. The anticipated waterfall has finally arrived on schedule, and after ending an eight-day bullish streak, the first signs of a top appeared. Moreover, the bullish momentum has been continuously weakening, and at that time, the prediction was that it would be a bit stronger and might reach another local high to create a bullish trap; if it was weak, it would just drop directly.
In the afternoon, it was mentioned that the market might start to change around five or six o'clock, most likely downward. If the change occurs earlier, then the news impact won't be as significant. However, the change actually happened around seven or eight o'clock, so the prediction was off by an hour. As long as it drops beforehand, the impact of the early morning news won't be major because, at this critical point, neither interest rate cuts nor hikes are possible; maintaining the status quo is the best choice.
Ultimately, after breaking the top pattern, it began to accelerate downwards, with a drop of nearly four to five thousand dollars, having already broken the ascending channel. This indicates that the recent rise has temporarily come to an end, and a downtrend has begun. Currently, this wave of accelerated decline has reached my predicted first support level near 70,000. From this wave, the drop is quite rapid and aligns with the demand during this period. Next, attention needs to be paid to the current position; the first phase of the accelerated decline has been completed, so this current position is likely to form a downward continuation pattern.
If the smaller timeframe is a bit stronger, it might touch the 72,500-73,000 range. If it is weak, it may accelerate downwards again. If placing orders, it is advisable to set them around 72,500 to continue entering short positions. The current upward trend has now turned into a downtrend, and if it breaks below the 69,000-70,000 support area, the next target will be the 65,000 range.
The waterfall may be late, but it will not be absent
At present, Btc has not yet shown a trend reversal and is still maintaining a sideways market. So right now, it’s neither up nor down; it just needs a spark to break the deadlock. Tonight's interest rate decision will determine the direction of the trend reversal.
From the current situation, tonight's interest rate decision is likely to lean towards a hawkish stance, which means a slightly more bearish outlook. If there are interest rate cuts this year, it is estimated that it will be in the last quarter, but not mid-year, unless Powell indicates that a rate cut might happen in June. Otherwise, the probability of an increase looks quite small, as the conflict is still ongoing, inflation continues to rise, and there is no confidence to cut rates. Therefore, in the short term, the probability of a rebound to lure buyers is relatively high.
My thinking for tonight is to continue shorting. Btc is expected to enter a short position at around 7.58w, and Eth is expected to enter a short position near 2380, which is basically around the previous highs. Because news may be released tonight, it might first push up to a higher point. Considering a stronger stance, it might hit another high point, so the short position is set near the previous highs. After that, it is highly likely to start a waterfall decline.
From the current situation, tonight's interest rate decision is likely to lean towards a hawkish stance, which means a slightly more bearish outlook. If there are interest rate cuts this year, it is estimated that it will be in the last quarter, but not mid-year, unless Powell indicates that a rate cut might happen in June. Otherwise, the probability of an increase looks quite small, as the conflict is still ongoing, inflation continues to rise, and there is no confidence to cut rates. Therefore, in the short term, the probability of a rebound to lure buyers is relatively high.
My thinking for tonight is to continue shorting. Btc is expected to enter a short position at around 7.58w, and Eth is expected to enter a short position near 2380, which is basically around the previous highs. Because news may be released tonight, it might first push up to a higher point. Considering a stronger stance, it might hit another high point, so the short position is set near the previous highs. After that, it is highly likely to start a waterfall decline.
Do not place orders to short for now. Observe the strength of this rebound on a smaller timeframe before making a decision. If it is a strong rebound with volume, then shorting should be abandoned, as it might create a higher peak. If it is a weak rebound without volume, then it would be possible to enter a short position. Therefore, pay close attention to the strength of this rebound, and it is best to wait for Guage to notify before entering the market.
The ETH fundamentals are roughly as I predicted, following the first simple structure. The short-term secondary high has already rebounded to around 2360, but it has been pulled back up. A triangle has formed in the short term, but it is currently uncertain whether this shape is a converging triangle or a bullish pennant.
So we can wait for a change in the smaller timeframe to determine whether to short. The current price is already close to the end of the triangle, and a change could happen at any time. If this rebound has strong momentum and volume, then it indicates a bullish pennant. If the price rebounds without volume, then it is a false breakout to lure in buyers.
For now, I am still focusing on the 2350-2370 range for the secondary high. I estimate that the probability of forming a converging triangle is quite high, and the main coin has basically topped out. We will decide based on the strength of this rebound. Currently, do not place orders to short; assess the situation before entering!
So we can wait for a change in the smaller timeframe to determine whether to short. The current price is already close to the end of the triangle, and a change could happen at any time. If this rebound has strong momentum and volume, then it indicates a bullish pennant. If the price rebounds without volume, then it is a false breakout to lure in buyers.
For now, I am still focusing on the 2350-2370 range for the secondary high. I estimate that the probability of forming a converging triangle is quite high, and the main coin has basically topped out. We will decide based on the strength of this rebound. Currently, do not place orders to short; assess the situation before entering!
Btc short-term can basically announce that it has peaked, as the top has already formed, and the daily line's eight consecutive ups has ended, and the price is constrained by the trend line, with significant selling pressure above. The bulls have also begun to reduce their volume, so the short-term rebound will take on a baiting pattern.
It is expected that the rebound baiting will take two forms. The first is that it is currently in a head and shoulders top pattern, with the left shoulder having two segments, and the first segment of the right shoulder has now been completed. If there is another small-level rebound, it will also be two segments, so the position of the high point will be at 7.5w, which is the high point of the right shoulder. If this happens, it is a compound head and shoulders top pattern.
The second form is slightly stronger, where the rebound high point hits near a new high and then forms a double top or M-top structure, followed by a decline. Currently, there is a need for a small-level rebound, and this rebound is basically without volume, so it can be confirmed that a peak has been reached and a baiting pattern is forming. For now, continue to pay attention to the second high point and enter short positions in the 7.5-7.55 range.
It is expected that the rebound baiting will take two forms. The first is that it is currently in a head and shoulders top pattern, with the left shoulder having two segments, and the first segment of the right shoulder has now been completed. If there is another small-level rebound, it will also be two segments, so the position of the high point will be at 7.5w, which is the high point of the right shoulder. If this happens, it is a compound head and shoulders top pattern.
The second form is slightly stronger, where the rebound high point hits near a new high and then forms a double top or M-top structure, followed by a decline. Currently, there is a need for a small-level rebound, and this rebound is basically without volume, so it can be confirmed that a peak has been reached and a baiting pattern is forming. For now, continue to pay attention to the second high point and enter short positions in the 7.5-7.55 range.
Update on Eth analysis: In the short term, this surge is very strong, continuously breaking through small highs. Although the price keeps breaking highs, the 4-hour level volume compared to the previous days is much weaker, which indicates that the bullish momentum driving the rise is waning, suggesting some signs of a peak. For now, we can make judgments based on the head, but it's uncertain whether this will be a simple head or a complex one. I will discuss both scenarios:
The first scenario is the formation of a short-term peak pattern, where a minor high is made in the 2350-2370 range before forming an M-top double top or a triangle and then coming down. This is a relatively simple trend.
The second scenario is the complex pattern ending in a wedge. If this pattern occurs, it will need to break the high in the short term, then retest the lower edge line before breaking a high again. After consecutively breaking two highs, the wedge pattern will be established, and then a downtrend will start. This is a complex shape, and the final high might be around 2430-2450.
Therefore, Eth is somewhat strong in the short term, so we shouldn't recklessly go short; otherwise, it could easily become fuel. Currently, we need to pay attention to the first minor resistance line at the minor high position of 2350-2370, and then watch for new highs. The prerequisite is to observe whether the rise is accompanied by volume; if it's a volume-less rise, it will be a false bullish trend. Specifically, we will wait for the peak pattern to be established before entering a short position and temporarily focus on changes in the pattern.
The first scenario is the formation of a short-term peak pattern, where a minor high is made in the 2350-2370 range before forming an M-top double top or a triangle and then coming down. This is a relatively simple trend.
The second scenario is the complex pattern ending in a wedge. If this pattern occurs, it will need to break the high in the short term, then retest the lower edge line before breaking a high again. After consecutively breaking two highs, the wedge pattern will be established, and then a downtrend will start. This is a complex shape, and the final high might be around 2430-2450.
Therefore, Eth is somewhat strong in the short term, so we shouldn't recklessly go short; otherwise, it could easily become fuel. Currently, we need to pay attention to the first minor resistance line at the minor high position of 2350-2370, and then watch for new highs. The prerequisite is to observe whether the rise is accompanied by volume; if it's a volume-less rise, it will be a false bullish trend. Specifically, we will wait for the peak pattern to be established before entering a short position and temporarily focus on changes in the pattern.
Update on Btc analysis: short-term acceleration in price again has broken through a minor high point, with the current peak reaching around 76,000. It has entered the area of resistance for the reversal trend line. I have emphasized that the upper reversal area is within the range of 75,000 to 78,000. Currently, after touching 76,000, the price has not stabilized, and a shooting star signal has appeared again, indicating the seriousness of the selling pressure above. It is estimated that breaking through won’t be easy unless there is a major news event that allows for a breakthrough; otherwise, it can easily be pushed down.
Next, we need to focus on whether the topping pattern can be established. Currently, on a smaller scale, it is in a correction phase, but it is still within an upward channel. It is expected that a pullback to around 73,500 will lead to another rebound to create a minor high point. Typically, a complete upward trend will attempt to create a false breakout pattern before a decline, which is the minor high point. Therefore, through this rebound, we can determine whether it is a minor high point or if it has broken through again. Normally, judging by the minor high point, a retracement to the 0.382 price is around 75,000, and 0.236 is 75,500. If a smaller scale rebound occurs with reduced volume, then it is undoubtedly a minor high point. If it comes up with increased volume, it may make another high point, so this is an area that requires close attention.
Additionally, there have been eight consecutive bullish daily candles, indicating a strong upward momentum. However, the bullish volume continues to decrease, including the trading volume of the last high candle, which has not significantly increased and has even shrunk compared to previous days. This suggests the possibility of a false breakout. If a bearish candle is formed today, the probability of a decline increases. The above is just a preliminary judgment; whether or not to consider entering a short position requires monitoring the minor high point in the range of 75,000 to 75,500 depending on the situation.
Next, we need to focus on whether the topping pattern can be established. Currently, on a smaller scale, it is in a correction phase, but it is still within an upward channel. It is expected that a pullback to around 73,500 will lead to another rebound to create a minor high point. Typically, a complete upward trend will attempt to create a false breakout pattern before a decline, which is the minor high point. Therefore, through this rebound, we can determine whether it is a minor high point or if it has broken through again. Normally, judging by the minor high point, a retracement to the 0.382 price is around 75,000, and 0.236 is 75,500. If a smaller scale rebound occurs with reduced volume, then it is undoubtedly a minor high point. If it comes up with increased volume, it may make another high point, so this is an area that requires close attention.
Additionally, there have been eight consecutive bullish daily candles, indicating a strong upward momentum. However, the bullish volume continues to decrease, including the trading volume of the last high candle, which has not significantly increased and has even shrunk compared to previous days. This suggests the possibility of a false breakout. If a bearish candle is formed today, the probability of a decline increases. The above is just a preliminary judgment; whether or not to consider entering a short position requires monitoring the minor high point in the range of 75,000 to 75,500 depending on the situation.
When many friends see this wave of pullback, the first thing they think is that if the short position holds on a bit longer, they would break even now. If they don't stop loss, are they starting to make money now? Why do they think this way? This kind of thinking can be very dangerous. Although stop-loss settings are close and can be easily triggered, stop-loss is an important life-saving measure.
Especially when sudden news comes out or the current market suddenly accelerates upwards, if you dare to hold the position, you might blow up at any moment. Even if you manage to hold on a few times by luck, just one liquidation will wipe out both your principal and profits. Therefore, a stop-loss must be set, and when it hits the stop-loss, just decisively exit. Keep the remaining capital so you won't be afraid of running out of resources.
Especially when sudden news comes out or the current market suddenly accelerates upwards, if you dare to hold the position, you might blow up at any moment. Even if you manage to hold on a few times by luck, just one liquidation will wipe out both your principal and profits. Therefore, a stop-loss must be set, and when it hits the stop-loss, just decisively exit. Keep the remaining capital so you won't be afraid of running out of resources.
However, since the prediction was wrong, we should learn from the lesson. Next time when encountering a breakthrough above the previous high, we must not be too eager to predict the peak. Pay attention to signs of increased volume. If the volume is strong, it may lead to a one-sided market, especially in the pattern formed after the first phase of accelerated rise and pullback. This pattern is very important. If a bullish pattern is formed, the probability of accelerated rise after the consolidation ends is very high. This time it was this kind of movement, so next time I won't be so aggressive. Learn from the lesson and summarize the experience, so that the next time I won't make the same mistake.
Since I've been hit, I'll learn from it and summarize:
The predictions before this period of accelerated rise were basically on point, but I was a bit aggressive these past two days. The failed attempt to reach the peak resulted in a loss when exiting, as the price of Btc continued to rebound but remained under the pressure of the trend line above. So I attempted to short twice in these two days. The first time was during the accelerated rise, where I made a small loss on the short position and exited immediately. Yesterday was my second attempt to short near the resistance line, with a cost around 7.37w. Then the price started to accelerate upward again, so I eventually hit the stop loss on the short position.
Originally, the first short was because I predicted a pullback to the second-high point to enter the short position. I decisively exited once I noticed the volume accelerated and broke through the previous high. Then, after breaking the previous high and reaching the upper trend line resistance, I attempted a second short because the area was under trend line pressure. This time, I entered the short position again because it was in the trend line resistance area, but the stop loss was set quite close, and a wave of acceleration took it out. In fact, the large coin was in a normal rebound market and did not break and stabilize, but eth was performing strongly, which is also the process of my two shorts on Btc.
Next, I also attempted to short eth twice. The first short was around 2185, near a small new high, so I definitely had to try it with a small position, but I also exited with a loss because I realized it was too late after noticing a bullish triangle was forming at a smaller level, and it started to accelerate upward. This was my first attempt to short near the previous high, which I had to try, and I accepted the hit.
The second attempt was yesterday near 2280u, where the price was at the edge of an ascending channel. At that time, the smaller level was also diverging, so I tried to short again. However, after waking up, the price broke a new high again, and I exited with a loss. I looked at the structural shape; eth's recent rise had sufficient volume, and it seems many institutions were frantically bottom-fishing eth, leading to a rise of nearly five hundred points. Of course, this rise was not just my short attempt being taken away; many who shorted were likely all taken out. No one expected this strong rise in eth, especially after its previous weak performance, suddenly becoming strong this time, catching many off guard.
The predictions before this period of accelerated rise were basically on point, but I was a bit aggressive these past two days. The failed attempt to reach the peak resulted in a loss when exiting, as the price of Btc continued to rebound but remained under the pressure of the trend line above. So I attempted to short twice in these two days. The first time was during the accelerated rise, where I made a small loss on the short position and exited immediately. Yesterday was my second attempt to short near the resistance line, with a cost around 7.37w. Then the price started to accelerate upward again, so I eventually hit the stop loss on the short position.
Originally, the first short was because I predicted a pullback to the second-high point to enter the short position. I decisively exited once I noticed the volume accelerated and broke through the previous high. Then, after breaking the previous high and reaching the upper trend line resistance, I attempted a second short because the area was under trend line pressure. This time, I entered the short position again because it was in the trend line resistance area, but the stop loss was set quite close, and a wave of acceleration took it out. In fact, the large coin was in a normal rebound market and did not break and stabilize, but eth was performing strongly, which is also the process of my two shorts on Btc.
Next, I also attempted to short eth twice. The first short was around 2185, near a small new high, so I definitely had to try it with a small position, but I also exited with a loss because I realized it was too late after noticing a bullish triangle was forming at a smaller level, and it started to accelerate upward. This was my first attempt to short near the previous high, which I had to try, and I accepted the hit.
The second attempt was yesterday near 2280u, where the price was at the edge of an ascending channel. At that time, the smaller level was also diverging, so I tried to short again. However, after waking up, the price broke a new high again, and I exited with a loss. I looked at the structural shape; eth's recent rise had sufficient volume, and it seems many institutions were frantically bottom-fishing eth, leading to a rise of nearly five hundred points. Of course, this rise was not just my short attempt being taken away; many who shorted were likely all taken out. No one expected this strong rise in eth, especially after its previous weak performance, suddenly becoming strong this time, catching many off guard.
Since I've been hit, I'll learn from it and summarize:
The predictions before this period of accelerated rise were basically on point, but I was a bit aggressive these past two days. The failed attempt to reach the peak resulted in a loss when exiting, as the price of Btc continued to rebound but remained under the pressure of the trend line above. So I attempted to short twice in these two days. The first time was during the accelerated rise, where I made a small loss on the short position and exited immediately. Yesterday was my second attempt to short near the resistance line, with a cost around 7.37w. Then the price started to accelerate upward again, so I eventually hit the stop loss on the short position.
Originally, the first short was because I predicted a pullback to the second-high point to enter the short position. I decisively exited once I noticed the volume accelerated and broke through the previous high. Then, after breaking the previous high and reaching the upper trend line resistance, I attempted a second short because the area was under trend line pressure. This time, I entered the short position again because it was in the trend line resistance area, but the stop loss was set quite close, and a wave of acceleration took it out. In fact, the large coin was in a normal rebound market and did not break and stabilize, but eth was performing strongly, which is also the process of my two shorts on Btc.
Next, I also attempted to short eth twice. The first short was around 2185, near a small new high, so I definitely had to try it with a small position, but I also exited with a loss because I realized it was too late after noticing a bullish triangle was forming at a smaller level, and it started to accelerate upward. This was my first attempt to short near the previous high, which I had to try, and I accepted the hit.
The second attempt was yesterday near 2280u, where the price was at the edge of an ascending channel. At that time, the smaller level was also diverging, so I tried to short again. However, after waking up, the price broke a new high again, and I exited with a loss. I looked at the structural shape; eth's recent rise had sufficient volume, and it seems many institutions were frantically bottom-fishing eth, leading to a rise of nearly five hundred points. Of course, this rise was not just my short attempt being taken away; many who shorted were likely all taken out. No one expected this strong rise in eth, especially after its previous weak performance, suddenly becoming strong this time, catching many off guard.
The predictions before this period of accelerated rise were basically on point, but I was a bit aggressive these past two days. The failed attempt to reach the peak resulted in a loss when exiting, as the price of Btc continued to rebound but remained under the pressure of the trend line above. So I attempted to short twice in these two days. The first time was during the accelerated rise, where I made a small loss on the short position and exited immediately. Yesterday was my second attempt to short near the resistance line, with a cost around 7.37w. Then the price started to accelerate upward again, so I eventually hit the stop loss on the short position.
Originally, the first short was because I predicted a pullback to the second-high point to enter the short position. I decisively exited once I noticed the volume accelerated and broke through the previous high. Then, after breaking the previous high and reaching the upper trend line resistance, I attempted a second short because the area was under trend line pressure. This time, I entered the short position again because it was in the trend line resistance area, but the stop loss was set quite close, and a wave of acceleration took it out. In fact, the large coin was in a normal rebound market and did not break and stabilize, but eth was performing strongly, which is also the process of my two shorts on Btc.
Next, I also attempted to short eth twice. The first short was around 2185, near a small new high, so I definitely had to try it with a small position, but I also exited with a loss because I realized it was too late after noticing a bullish triangle was forming at a smaller level, and it started to accelerate upward. This was my first attempt to short near the previous high, which I had to try, and I accepted the hit.
The second attempt was yesterday near 2280u, where the price was at the edge of an ascending channel. At that time, the smaller level was also diverging, so I tried to short again. However, after waking up, the price broke a new high again, and I exited with a loss. I looked at the structural shape; eth's recent rise had sufficient volume, and it seems many institutions were frantically bottom-fishing eth, leading to a rise of nearly five hundred points. Of course, this rise was not just my short attempt being taken away; many who shorted were likely all taken out. No one expected this strong rise in eth, especially after its previous weak performance, suddenly becoming strong this time, catching many off guard.
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