🔥 Major Events 1. Military confrontation in the Strait of Hormuz escalates — U.S. military aircraft and Apaches launch an offensive in the strait, Trump plans to seize Hark Island. The strait carries 20% of global oil transport; a blockade would drive up oil prices and exacerbate inflation, posing significant risks to assets. 2. Fed's Waller speaks intensively — Closure of the Strait of Hormuz intensifies inflation pressure, high oil prices will transmit to core inflation; however, he releases dovish signals: if the situation proceeds smoothly, he will advocate for interest rate cuts later this year. 3. The White House releases national AI legislation framework — Establishing a unified national standard to replace the fragmented regulation of various states.
📊 Market Data 4. BTC ETF sees inflows for 7 consecutive days totaling $1.16 billion — the longest streak of inflows since October 2025, institutional confidence returns. 5. 23,000 BTC options expire — Maximum pain point $70,000, current price is right around that area, volatility may be released. 6. Strategy purchased $1.57 billion in BTC last week — Saylor continues to make significant purchases. 7. FTX will pay $2.2 billion to creditors on 3/31 — Large amounts of capital are about to flow back into the market. 8. HyperEVM stablecoin scale surpasses $1 billion — 96% growth since February.
🏛️ Regulatory Policies 9. SEC and CFTC recognize 16 types of crypto assets as digital commodities — including BTC/ETH/SOL/ADA/DOGE/XRP, for the first time clearly defining commodity attributes on a large scale, significant positive news. 10. Morgan Stanley advances BTC ETF application — Submits second amendment to S-1, top Wall Street investment bank enters the fray. 11. Gemini faces collective lawsuit from investors — Accused of exaggerating core business in IPO.
💡 Project Dynamics 12. DAI rebranded to USDS — Binance supports 1:1 exchange, effective 4/7. 13. Bluesky completes $100 million Series B financing — Led by Bain Capital Crypto. 14. Coinbase launches U.S. perpetual contracts — Available for non-U.S. users 7×24 trading. 15. Ledger hires former Circle CFO in preparation for IPO — The wave of crypto infrastructure listings continues.
📈 Market Sentiment: Cautiously Bullish Bulls: Continued ETF inflows + SEC's recognition of digital commodities + Strategy's purchases + FTX payouts imminent. Bears: Military escalation in Hormuz is the biggest black swan, Waller warns of inflation risks, funding rates turn negative. BTC key levels: Support at $68,559, resistance at $71,407. Recent catalysts: 3/31 FTX payouts, developments in Hormuz, April tariff implementations.
🏛️ The White House releases a national AI legislative framework. In one day, the SEC regulates cryptocurrency, and the White House regulates AI; a regulatory combo is coming.
📍 What happened The White House announced the national artificial intelligence legislative framework on Friday, aimed at establishing a unified AI regulatory system across the country, replacing the current fragmented state legislations. The Trump administration stated it would collaborate with Congress in the coming months to turn the framework into a formal bill for the President to sign.
📋 Three main protections in the framework • Protecting children: The impact of AI-generated content on minors, deep fakes, etc. • Protecting communities: Fairness in AI decision-making, algorithmic discrimination issues. • Protecting small businesses: Preventing monopolization by AI giants and ensuring that small and medium-sized enterprises can also benefit from AI technology.
🔑 Core logic: Federal unification -> State decentralization Currently, AI regulation in the U.S. is disorganized—California has its own AI legislation, New York has its own algorithm audit requirements, and standards vary by state. What the White House aims to do is a "one-size-fits-all" approach: unified legislation at the federal level for nationwide execution, avoiding businesses facing 50 different sets of rules across 50 states. This is the same logic as the SEC's release of the cryptocurrency asset regulation framework today—federal control over regulatory dominance.
💡 Impact on the cryptocurrency AI sector Today is a special day: in the morning, the SEC released the cryptocurrency regulation framework, and in the afternoon, the White House released the AI legislative framework. The overlap of these two frameworks on the intersection of cryptocurrency and AI is noteworthy: 1. AI Agent projects like WLFI's AgentPay SDK → If AI Agents can trade autonomously, who will regulate them? The SEC regulates the cryptocurrency part, while the White House framework regulates the AI part, leading to dual compliance costs. 2. Decentralized AI training such as Bittensor/TAO → Does distributed training need to comply with the federal AI framework? With nodes distributed globally, how is jurisdiction defined? 3. AI-generated content + NFT → Regulation of deep fakes may impact AI-generated NFT artworks. 4. On-chain reasoning/AI oracles → Requirements for algorithm fairness may affect how on-chain AI models are deployed.
📊 Today's regulatory milestones • Morning: SEC released "Regulation Crypto Assets," classifying BTC/ETH/SOL as digital commodities. • Afternoon: The White House released the national AI legislative framework to promote federal unified regulation. • Same day: CFTC strengthens regulation of prediction markets and signs a memorandum of cooperation with MLB. Three significant regulatory actions in one day, and 2026 is becoming the "regulatory year" for cryptocurrency and AI.
🤖 Unitree Robotics IPO on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board: Raising 4.2 billion with a betting agreement, crypto project parties remain silent 📍 Event
Unitree Robotics (宇树科技) has had its IPO application accepted by the Shanghai Stock Exchange, aiming to raise 4.202 billion yuan. The company became famous for its robot dog performance during the Spring Festival Gala and the humanoid robot B2, making it one of the hottest unicorns in the domestic robotics sector.
📋 Unitree's Financing Journey • Established in 2016, Hangzhou • Products: Quadruped Robots (Go2/B2), Humanoid Robots (H1/G1) • Valuation around 8 billion in 2024, with multiple rounds of financing totaling billions • Investors include Meituan, Shenzhen Capital Group, Citic Securities, Jingshi Investment, and others • Estimated revenue of about 1 billion in 2025, but still not profitable • This IPO aims to raise 4.202 billion yuan
⚠️ Key Details: Betting Agreement The prospectus reveals that Unitree Robotics has signed a betting agreement (VAM) with investors during multiple rounds of financing, with core terms including: • Performance Betting: If the agreed revenue/profit targets are not met, the founding team must repurchase shares or provide cash compensation • IPO Betting: If the listing is not completed within the agreed time, investors have the right to demand a repurchase • Valuation Adjustment: If the listing valuation is below the agreed multiple, anti-dilution clauses are triggered This means founder Wang Xingxing and the team bear immense performance pressure— the money raised is not free, but comes with "debt repayment" conditions.
💰 Comparison with the Crypto World: Financing Rules of Two Worlds Traditional Tech Companies (Unitree): • Raising 4.2 billion requires IPO review, with materials hundreds of pages long • Signing a betting agreement, compensation required if performance standards are not met • Investors have repurchase rights, anti-dilution, and priority liquidation rights • There is a lock-up period post-listing, cannot sell freely • It took 10 years from establishment to IPO • There are real products, real revenue, real customers Crypto Project Parties: • Write a white paper, conduct a TGE, raise tens of millions to hundreds of millions in a few days • Zero betting, zero performance commitments, zero repurchase obligations • Dump the tokens directly after unlocking, investors bear their own profits and losses • Team shares unlock and run, with no legal constraints • It may only take 3-6 months from PPT to listing • Many projects do not even have a product.
Data doesn't lie: BTC and ETH funding rates have both turned negative (-0.003%/-0.006%), short sellers are paying long holders. When was the last time this structure appeared? Think back, every time the negative rate persists for more than 48 hours, there has been a subsequent rally.
Today's trend is very interesting. The Asian market pushed it to 70777, the European market continued to surge to 71342, but the US market opened and directly smashed it back to 70400. A typical Asian-European long, US market harvest. BTC contract holdings are 86671, not a small amount, indicating a significant divergence between longs and shorts.
ETH is worse, down 0.9% in 24 hours, can't even hold 2150. However, the daily buy point at 2079 has already been tested once without breaking, providing effective short-term support.
Direction: slightly bullish, but needs confirmation.
If BTC holds above 70000, there will be no problem, 71407 is the first hurdle. If it breaks, look directly at 72500. If it falls below 69500 before the US stock market closes tonight, then just patiently wait for 68559.
ETH follows the big pie, if 2079 holds, it can be monitored, target 2213. BNB is sideways and strange, consider buying below 629.
The liquidity on Friday night is relatively thin, do not go heavy. Negative funding rates are bottom signals, but signals do not equal starting guns.
🔥 TAO surged 20% in one day, Jensen Huang publicly praised Bittensor on the All-In podcast 📍 What happened
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang proactively mentioned Bittensor in the well-known tech podcast All-In Podcast, stating that its Subnet 3 successfully trained a 4 billion parameter Llama model, with the entire process completed through collaborative distributed computing power. Jensen Huang's original comment was: "quite a remarkable technical achievement".
After the news broke, TAO rose from about $250 to $304, with a daily increase of over 20%.
🧠 What is Bittensor Bittensor is a decentralized AI network, with the core idea of using blockchain incentive mechanisms to organize global distributed computing power to train and run AI models:
• The network consists of multiple Subnets, each focusing on different AI tasks (text generation, images, data analysis, etc.) • Miners contribute computing power/models, validators assess quality, and high-quality contributors receive TAO token rewards • Subnet 3 focuses on training large language models, this time collaboratively training a 4 billion parameter Llama model using distributed nodes • Has joined the NVIDIA Inception program (NVIDIA's official startup accelerator)
💡 Why Jensen Huang's statement is important 1. First public acknowledgment of decentralized AI training Jensen Huang is the "shovel seller" of global AI computing power, and his business model is built on centralized data centers. Actively praising decentralized training indicates he believes this path has technical feasibility, and is not just a toy. 2. Validated the technical path of distributed training Although the 4 billion parameter Llama model is not considered large (GPT-4 level is trillions of parameters), it proves that collaborative training of large models using distributed nodes is feasible. This is a leap from "theoretically feasible" to "actually achievable" 3. The strongest endorsement of the AI+Crypto narrative
Previously, the AI+Crypto track was more about conceptual hype, lacking recognition from tech leaders. Jensen Huang's statement has provided the entire track with a "technical legitimacy" endorsement.
📊 Current ecological status • Bittensor currently has over 50 active Subnets, covering areas such as text, images, financial predictions, etc. • Leadpoet (an AI sales company founded by a Nasdaq researcher) is already using the Bittensor network, achieving an annualized revenue of $1 million in the first quarter • TAO's current market value is approximately $4 billion, ranking among the top three tokens in the AI track
📢 SEC Chairman Launches 'Cryptocurrency Asset Regulation Framework', Industry Welcomes Milestone Transformation 🔑 Core Content SEC Chairman Paul Atkins officially released the 'Regulation Crypto Assets' regulatory framework at the 'SEC Speaks' annual meeting, marking the first time in the U.S. to define the regulatory boundaries of cryptocurrency assets with a clear rule system (rather than enforcement actions). 📋 Three Pillars 1. Digital Commodities vs Digital Securities — Finally a Clear Classification • Digital Commodities (CFTC regulated): Tokens like BTC, ETH, SOL that are decentralized and have no promise of returns • Digital Securities (SEC regulated): Tokens with clear return or asset claim rights, subject to federal securities laws • This means BTC/ETH/SOL officially step out of the SEC's 'securities' shadow and are no longer threatened by the Howey Test 2. Token Safe Harbor Mechanism — Breathing Space for Projects • Allows projects to develop and finance with simplified disclosure requirements for up to 3 years • Lowers the compliance threshold for startups, eliminating the need to disclose the full set of securities standards from the start • Similar to the 'safe harbor' proposal put forward by SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce back in the day, but this time it is a formal framework 3. SEC-CFTC Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) • The two major regulatory agencies signed a cooperation agreement, clarifying their respective responsibilities • Reduces duplicative regulation and the phenomenon of 'ping-ponging' • Ends years of confusion over 'who regulates cryptocurrency' 💡 Why This is a Milestone • From 'Enforcement Driven' to 'Rule System': In the past, the SEC relied on lawsuits (Ripple, Coinbase, Kraken) to 'set rules', but now there are finally preemptive rules • ETH/SOL Qualifies as Commodities: This directly benefits the Ethereum and Solana ecosystems, significantly lowering ETF approval barriers • Safe Harbor Mechanism: New projects no longer have to worry about 'issuing tokens is illegal', providing a legal financing window • Regulatory Certainty: The greatest fear of institutional funds is regulatory uncertainty, and this framework clears the biggest obstacle 📊 Market Impact Short-term: Positive sentiment boosts, but the market may have partially priced this in (BTC did not respond significantly) Mid-term: ETH/SOL ecosystem projects benefit the most, ETF approval acceleration is expected Long-term: Regulatory certainty attracts more institutional funds into the market, accelerating the legitimization of the cryptocurrency industry This is the most important regulatory event since 2026, marking the formal transition of U.S. cryptocurrency regulation from the 'wild era' to the 'rule era'.
ETH long position 66%, the price is still falling — what do we call this?
It's called "the knife receiving competition".
Current data: ETH is reported at $2146, down 2.1% in 24 hours Long-short ratio 1.95, long positions account for 66.1% Funding rate -0.0063%, shorts are making money
To translate: Two-thirds of the people are long, but the price is still going down. Shorts are not only not being squeezed out, but are actually collecting funding fees. In this structure, longs are paying shorts with real money.
BTC looks slightly better, with a funding rate close to zero, long-short ratio 1.57, but also stuck below the pivot point, lacking the strength to break through.
Direction judgment: ETH short signals are obvious. $2079 is the daily buy point; holding it gives a chance for a rebound, breaking it looks at the $2000 whole number level. $2213 is the daily sell point; consider taking profits if it rebounds to here. BTC maintains a range-bound oscillation. $68559 is the daily buy point, $71407 is the daily sell point, and now $70729 is stuck in the middle, waiting for direction.
🔥 Major Events 1. The US-Iran conflict escalates, Qatar's LNG production capacity is damaged by 17%, repairs will take 3-5 years, driving gold above $4,697 as a safe haven 2. The crypto market has fallen for three consecutive days, SocialFi dropped by 4.65%, BTC rebounded after falling below $69K, only GameFi increased against the trend 3. UXLINK attackers sold 5,496 ETH($11,820,000),still holding 203 WBTC with a floating loss of $2,680,000
📊 Market Data 4. BTC spot ETF's net inflow ended after 7 days, net outflow of $164 million on 3/18 5. Whales liquidated a long position of 742.8 WBTC with a loss of $14,020,000, buying at an average price of $89K and cutting losses at $70K 6. Gold rose over 1% to $4,697, strengthening its negative correlation with BTC 7. HyperEVM stablecoin surpassed $1 billion, growing 96% since February
🏛️ Regulation 8. Morgan Stanley advances BTC spot ETF, submits S-1 for second revision, code MSBT 9. Kentucky's crypto ATM bill requires resetting mnemonic phrases, causing controversy
💡 Projects 10. Ondo launched over 60 tokenized stocks, supporting over 250 assets 11. Sui launched BTC infrastructure Hashi on devnet 12. WLFI launched AgentPay SDK, AI+Crypto narratives are heating up 13. Bithumb listed PHA with a rise of 21.88%
📈 Market Sentiment: Cautiously Bearish The US-Iran conflict + ETF fund outflows + whale liquidations, BTC support at $69K is breached looking towards $67.5K, ETH funding rate turns negative at $2,080 as a defensive line. Mainly wait and see.
🏦 Final confirmation! U.S. regulators ease capital requirements for major banks, the largest deregulation since 2008. Will billions of dollars flood the market?
The Federal Reserve, FDIC, and OCC have teamed up to relax capital requirements for large banks — this is the largest deregulation of banks since the 2008 financial crisis. Official effective date: April 1, 2026
What does this mean? • Large banks will release billions of dollars of locked capital, significantly improving liquidity • The new regulations require a 90-day public consultation period, accelerating Trump's "deregulation" agenda • Morgan Stanley, BlackRock, and Fidelity have suggested a 1%-4% crypto allocation in portfolios • 80% of crypto transactions still come from retail investors — institutional funds have not really entered the market yet
When was the last major liquidity release? In 2021. What happened that year, I don't need to say, right?
Bank capital release → Institutional allocation of alternative assets → Crypto market benefits. The script is written; it just depends on who gets on board first.
🔥 Major Events 1. A new generation of suicide drone swarms from Iran attacked Israel, the US Secretary of Defense stated that today's strike will be the largest yet 2. Gold plummeted 5.5% losing the $4600 mark, silver dropped over 10%, smart money liquidated XAUT at $5131 on 3/8, making a profit of $4.84 million 3. US Treasury Secretary: No attacks on Iranian energy facilities, 130 million barrels of Iranian crude oil at sea will be used to lower oil prices 4. The White House registered the domain aliens.gov, Trump plans to declassify UFO files
📊 Market Data 5. BTC broke below 70,000, Polymarket's probability of reaching 80,000 dropped from 42% to 17%, and the probability of falling to 65,000 rose to 46% 6. ETH breaking below 2000 will trigger $2.5 billion in long liquidations, with 144 million already liquidated in the last 24 hours 7. Strategy holds 761,000 BTC, only 21,000 BTC behind BlackRock 8. BTC spot ETF saw a net outflow of 164 million, ETH ETF net outflow of 55.7 million
🏛️ Regulatory Policy 9. Traders no longer expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates in 2026, even hedging against rate hikes 10. The Bank of England unanimously maintained interest rates, opening a possible rate hike channel 11. South Korea's largest opposition party proposed abolishing the 22% crypto gains tax
💡 Project Updates 12. Crypto.com laid off 12%, CEO cites need for AI transformation 13. Opera plans to acquire 160 million CELO, accounting for 27% of circulation 14. Venus THE market was attacked, resulting in $2.15 million in bad debts
📉 Market Sentiment: Fear and Bearish BTC is struggling at S1 support 69562, if it fails, look for 67000. Control positions, pay attention to the Iran situation and Friday's options expiration.
Volume is 5 times the usual, BTC directly dropped to 69421, with no warning, no opposing orders, just pure dumping. And then? A rebound, but it can't recover to 70500 no matter what. This kind of rebound is called a "panic sell," not a "stabilization."
Current situation: Funding rate -0.0006%, the market is losing money to the shorts—this is not a bottom characteristic; it's a signal that "it hasn't dropped enough" yet. Daily S1 support at 69562, BTC current price 69890, just hanging on the support. Once 69562 breaks, there is no decent support until the 67000 range.
How to view tonight's night market: If 69562 holds → 69562-71000 range consolidation, can lightly hold positions to watch for rebounds, target R1 73739 is the next resistance If 69562 fails → Short signals are obvious, 67000-67500 is the next effective support, this distance is about -4%
ETH drops harder, -4.41%, S1 at 2118, current price 2165 still has a buffer space of 47 dollars, but don't celebrate too early. If the ETH/BTC ratio continues to weaken, ETH is likely to break support first.
Tonight's keyword is only one: 69562. Holding it is a test, not holding it means a waterfall.
🛸 White House registers "aliens.gov" domain — Trump to disclose UFO secrets?
The White House has officially registered the "aliens.gov" domain, which appears in the federal government's official domain registration system, though the website currently has no content.
In recent weeks, Trump announced on Truth Social plans to declassify government files related to extraterrestrial life and unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP), and has instructed the Secretary of Defense and relevant agencies to identify and disclose all UFO-related documents.
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth confirmed that the file review process is underway, but did not disclose a timeline.
Former senior defense intelligence official Christopher Mellon revealed that the government holds a substantial amount of visual evidence that the public has never seen, including videos captured by F-18 fighter jet onboard cameras — some of which were deemed non-classified in 2018, but have yet to be released to the public.
This is the first time the U.S. government is preparing to publicly disclose UFO/extraterrestrial information under an official domain name, which is highly significant. #UFO #aliens
Trump threatens to bomb Iran's largest gas field, 12 foreign ministers jointly call for a halt, the situation in the Middle East escalates to the brink of war overnight. BTC crashed from 74000 to 70800, a drop of over 4%. ETH is even worse, falling from 2330 to 2193, a drop of nearly 6%.
The fear index jumped from 26 yesterday to 23, indicating extreme fear. But interestingly, the long account ratio is still 59.7%, indicating that many are catching falling knives. Funding rates: BTC -0.001%, ETH -0.0004%, shorts have a slight edge but are not extreme.
The current question is simple: can the daily S1 at 69500 hold?
The integer level of 70000 is already being tested; if it breaks, it's 69500. If 69500 can't be held, the next stop is directly looking at 67000. On the rebound, anything below 73700 is the territory of the bears, so don't rush to catch the bottom.
Until the geopolitical risks are fully digested, cash is king.
🔥 Major Events 1. Iran missile strikes Qatari LNG facility again — Ras Laffan Industrial City hit by ballistic missile, Brent oil price touches $112, reaching a nearly one-year high. 2. Trump considers increasing troops in the Middle East, Pentagon requests $200 billion in war funding — Risk in the Strait of Hormuz surges. 3. Powell hints at rate hike possibilities — Maintains interest rates, April rate cut probability 0%.
📊 Market Data 4. BlackRock withdraws 8,435 BTC worth $618 million in 3 days — Signal of long-term institutional holding. 5. A whale purchases 50,706 ETH at $1.12 million, average price $2,201. 6. Crypto funds see a net inflow of $2.8 billion over 3 weeks.
🏛️ Regulation 7. SEC approves Nasdaq's tokenization pilot — Milestone for US stocks on-chain. 8. Clarity Act expected to be reviewed in the second half of April.
💡 Projects 9. Strategy records weekly purchase of 22,337 BTC. 10. FTX launches $2.2 billion fourth round of distribution on 3/31.
Market sentiment is cautiously bearish, focusing on the ceasefire negotiations in the Middle East.
Don't rush to cut losses. Funding rates: BTC -0.001%, ETH -0.0004%, both turned negative, with shorts paying longs. What does this indicate? The market is already in a panic bearish mode, but the more aggressively the shorts squeeze, the tighter the rebound spring is compressed.
BTC open interest is 86074 coins, with no significant reduction, indicating that the main force hasn't exited yet. There is support starting around 71000, but the true watershed is the daily support at 69562.
ETH's decline is almost 1.5 times that of BTC, and the weak pattern remains unchanged. 2118 is today's key defense line; if it breaks, it will enter the deep water zone at 2050.
Short-term bearish but approaching oversold. If BTC holds 69500, you can try a small long position, aiming to see a return to 73700. Don't rush with ETH; wait for BTC to stabilize before following.
1. Iranian Revolutionary Guard issues evacuation warning for Gulf energy facilities; Polymarket's probability of military action 88%, escalating the situation to nuclear security levels.
2. US February PPI year-on-year rate hit a record high of 3.4% (expected 2.9%), with a monthly rate of 0.7%, the largest increase since July 2025, completely sealing off short-term interest rate cuts.
3. The Fed's FOMC meeting tonight has a 100% probability of keeping interest rates unchanged; market pricing in hawkish sentiment has paused.
📊 Funding
4. Binance recorded a net inflow of 2.2 billion USDT, the largest single-day inflow since November 2025, showing significant support at lower levels.
5. ETF/stablecoin fund flows have both turned positive; in the past few weeks, billions of dollars have flowed back into the crypto sector through multiple channels.
6. Gold fell more than 2% to below $4890, with inflation concerns reinforcing hawkish expectations.
🏛️ Regulation
7. The SEC and CFTC jointly clarified that 16 crypto assets, including BTC/ETH/SOL/LINK, are digital commodities, not securities! Previously, the SEC filed securities lawsuits against some tokens, marking a historic shift.
8. Trump prioritizes the "Save America Act," delaying the CLARITY crypto market structure bill until after April.
💡 Projects
9. Binance launches KAT trading across all categories, Coinbase simultaneously launches spot trading.
10. Mastercard acquires BVNK for $1.8 billion, traditional payment giants accelerate entry.
11. OKX launches Agentic Wallet, providing on-chain wallets for AI Agents based on TEE.
12. Tether builds its local AI platform QVAC, expanding from stablecoins to AI infrastructure.
🎯 Direction: Cautiously bearish. BTC has broken below the daily buy point of 72802, with the double uncertainty of the FOMC and the Middle East suppressing any rebound. Watch the 71500 support level and Powell's remarks; a more hawkish response than expected or a Straits blockade could see a move towards 70000. However, the net inflow of 2.2 billion USDT plus the positive SEC news indicates there are buyers at lower levels; avoid chasing the short position.
Tonight's FOMC interest rate decision, the market is preemptively trading in fear. BTC has dropped from the Asian session 74200 all the way down to 72700, with 4 consecutive 4-hour bearish candles, the bearish rhythm is very smooth.
But interesting points come from the data level: 1. BTC funding rates have been negative for 3 consecutive periods (-0.012%/-0.065%/-0.048%), indicating that shorts are paying longs, showing that shorting has become very crowded. 2. 72800 is exactly the classic daily pivot point S1, where technical and funding aspects resonate at the same position. 3. The SEC and CFTC jointly issued a statement today, clarifying that "most crypto assets are not securities", which is the biggest positive signal from the regulatory perspective in recent years.
ETH has dropped even more (-2.87%), but the ETH funding rate is still positive, indicating that bulls have not surrendered. 2280 is the daily S1, break it and look at 2200.
Tonight's script: The FOMC is highly likely to maintain interest rates, the key is to see the wording of Powell's speech. If it's dovish, 72800 will be the bottom of this round of correction. If it's hawkish, there is another layer of support at 71500 below.
Short-term bearish but do not chase shorts. If there is a volume stabilization near 72800, it would actually be a good entry point. Break 71500 and we'll talk again.
The U.S. SEC and CFTC jointly released an explanatory document listing 16 types of "digital commodities", clearly stating that these assets do not fall under the category of securities. The list includes:
Among them, Aptos officially tweeted to celebrate, calling it a "milestone day". The SEC's original text can be found here: https://www.sec.gov/files/rules/interp/2026/33-11412.pdf
AI score 95, considered a significant favorable policy event. Previously, there were disputes over whether SOL, ADA, LINK, and others were securities; this blanket classification as commodities essentially lifted the restrictions on these projects.
Iran has been bombed, Lebanon is under attack, and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is a mess, causing traditional markets to tremble. Yet BTC stands firm at 74000.
Bloomberg directly provided the headline yesterday: Bitcoin Outperforms During War. ETFs have seen net inflows for 6 consecutive days, and institutions are not fleeing; instead, they are increasing their positions.
Even more shocking, the SEC dropped a bombshell last night: announcing that "most cryptocurrencies" do not fall under securities, with staking, airdrops, and mining all exempt. This is akin to loosening the reins for the entire industry, as regulatory headwinds have dissipated.
BTC contract funding rate -0.006%, with shorts paying longs. Market sentiment leans bearish, yet prices aren't falling. What do we call this? A short squeeze precursor.
Short-term support at 72800; if it holds, it's a buying opportunity. A breakout at 75500 directly targets 78000. War is noise; the flow of capital is the signal.